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Transpower warns New Zealand at higher risk of blackouts in winter 2026
- 6 hours ago (2025-05-16)
- David Flin
Transpower , New Zealand’s national grid operator, has said that the country is at a higher risk of electricity outages from winter 2026. It said that solar, wind, and battery storage are not coming online fast enough to counteract the dwindling supplies in the country’s gas fields.
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James Kilty, Chief Executive of Transpower, said: “It doesn’t mean there will actually be outages, but it does signal an increased risk. It is telling us that things are getting tighter and next year is looking tight.” He said if all potential solar, wind and battery projects in the development pipeline were built, the country would be in a much more secure position, but many projects didn't have consent yet.
The main factor behind the changed outlook was worse-than-expected results from gas producers. Not only have yields from the country's gas fields dropped faster than expected, independent experts have also downgraded the size of estimated gas reserves in existing fields since the previous assessment a year ago.
Transpower now expects lower demand from industrial users than previously forecast, with more electricity generation projects committed to being built than a year ago.
Commercial rooftop solar has also helped alleviate some pressure, but while those factors improved the buffer, they weren't enough, the assessment found.