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IEA report considers a pessimistic future for nuclear
- 12 years ago (2011-11-06)
- Junior Isles
The Fukushima disaster might lead to a 15 per cent fall in nuclear power generation worldwide by 2035, according to a July draft of the International Energy Agency's 2011 World Energy Outlook. The report further predicts power demand could rise by 3.1 per cent a year over the same period, though.
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Following the Japanese crisis, many countries have put the future of their nuclear power generation industries under review. Some, including Germany and Switzerland, have subsequently decided to cut nuclear out of their energy mix entirely.
The draft, pre-empting the full report due to be released next week, said the IEA had developed a "Low Nuclear Case" contingency that assesses possible implications for global energy balances of a much smaller role for nuclear power.
"In the Low Nuclear Case, the total amount of nuclear power capacity falls from 393 GW at the start of 2011 to 339 GW in 2035, compared with an increase to 638 GW in the [primary] New Policies Scenario," the report said, translating to a drop of around 15 per cent.
The Low Nuclear Case "is intended to illustrate what a pessimistic view of the prospects for the nuclear power industry might entail," the report says.
The rationale for considering the Low Nuclear Case is outlined by the report: "The prospects for nuclear power are now much more uncertain than before the Fukushima nuclear accident" and it has "greatly increased the uncertainty about the future role of nuclear power in meeting the world's energy needs."
The IEA report claims the drop in nuclear generation caused a rise in oil- and gas-fired power generation equivalent to about 0.2 per cent of global oil supplies and 0.4 per cent of natural gas supplies.
In its main New Policies Scenario, the report said it expected world electricity demand to rise from 17 200 TWh in 2009 to almost 31 500 TWh in 2035, an annual growth rate of 3.1 per cent.
It estimated total investment in the power sector between 2011 and 2035 at $16.8 trillion.
The report said it expected non-hydro renewables to generate 16 per cent of global electricity in 2035, up from 3 per cent in 2009.
"Renewable energy technologies, led by hydropower and wind, account for half of this additional capacity and 60 per cent of the investment in power generation," the report said.