IEA annual report predicts significant renewables growth by 2035

• 12 years ago (2012-11-13)
• Junior Isles

Renewables 776

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The new annual outlook report from the International Energy Agency claims that by 2035, renewable energy will likely rival coal as the world’s main electricity generation source, as the costs of the technology continue to fall and subsidies rise.

Wind, solar and hydro are forecasted to become the second biggest power generators in 2015, rising to rival coal at almost a third of all generation in 2035, the Paris-based agency said.

“A steady increase in hydropower and the rapid expansion of wind and solar power has cemented the position of renewables as an indispensable part of the global energy mix,” the IEA said. “The rapid increase in renewable energy is underpinned by falling technology costs, rising fossil-fuel prices and carbon pricing, but mainly by continued subsidies.”

Renewable energy industry groups predict a doubling of wind power installations over the five years through to 2016, with solar PV tripling its contribution even as manufacturers compete with declining margins and potential overcapacity.

The IEA projects global renewable energy subsidies to reach $240 billion in 2035, up from $88 billion in 2011. For comparison, fossil fuels received $523 billion in financial support in 2011.

“Subsidy measures to support new renewable energy projects need to be adjusted over time as capacity increases and as the costs of renewable technologies fall, to avoid excessive burdens on governments and consumers,” the agency advised.

The anticipated growth in low-carbon energy won’t be enough to meet the UN’s goal of limiting global warming since industrialisation to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit), the IEA said.

Almost 80 per cent of the emissions allowable by 2035, under a 2-degree scenario, are already ‘locked-in’ from the lifespans of existing power plants, factories and buildings, the IEA said.

The IEA argues for $11.8 trillion of investment in existing energy-efficient technologies, which could then be offset by a reduced need for spending on fuel, and could help boost aggregate global economic output by $18 trillion.

“These gains are not based on achieving any major or unexpected technological breakthroughs, but just on taking actions to remove the barriers obstructing the implementation of energy efficiency measures that are economically viable,” the agency said. “Successful action to this effect would have a major impact on global energy and climate trends.”