The International Energy Agency (IEA) has said in a report that two-thirds of nuclear power capacity could be lost by 2040 as developed nations phase out old nuclear plants. It said that a steep decline in nuclear energy capacity will threaten climate goals and power supply security unless advanced economies find a way to extend the lifespan of their reactors.
Nuclear is currently the world’s second-largest source of low-carbon electricity, behind hydropower, and accounts for 10 per cent of global electricity generation. However, nuclear fleets in the USA and Europe are on average more than 35 years old, and many of the world’s 452 reactors are set to close as cheap gas and higher safety requirements make it uneconomic to run them.
The report states: “Without policy changes, advanced economies could lose 25 per cent of their nuclear capacity by 2025, and as much as two-thirds of it by 2040.”
Fatih Birol, IEA director, said that the agency is not asking countries who have exited nuclear to reconsider, but that countries who did decide to keep nuclear should do more to support the industry. Birol said that the low-carbon nature of nuclear and its role in energy security are currently not sufficiently valued for existing nuclear plants to operate profitably and that new nuclear projects have been plagued by cost overruns. Birol said: “Without action to provide more support for nuclear power, global efforts to transition to a cleaner energy system will become drastically harder.”
Keisuke Sadamori, Energy Markets Director of the IEA, said that it is more expensive to build new wind and solar power than to extend the lifespan of existing reactors, which requires an investment of $500 million to $1 billion per GW of capacity.