China and India expected to dominate future energy growth

• 12 years ago (2011-07-10)
• Junior Isles

Asia 846 Europe 1061 Nuclear 639 Renewables 751

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Analysis from Frost & Sullivan's Annual Global Power Generation Forecasts 2011, shows that electricity generation will expand at a growth rate of 2.7 per cent through 2020, with the growth rate declining to 1.8 per cent per annum over the subsequent decade, as growth rate in the emerging markets becomes less pronounced and energy-efficiency measures begin to have a significant impact.

Over the next two decades, the combined share of demand for electricity from the developed regions of the European Union (EU), North America and Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development Asia Pacific (OECD APAC) will fall from 49.6 per cent to 37.5 per cent. The bulk of demand is expected to come from the boom markets of India and China, with the combined share of these two countries alone rising from 23.6 per cent in 2010 to 34.5 per cent in 2030.

“China’s and India’s role and future impact are most prominent in the area of coal-fired power generation, where they accounted for 43.8 per cent of the world total in 2010, and this is forecast to rise to 57 per cent by 2030,” says Harald Thaler, Frost & Sullivan’s Industry Director for Power Generation. “Both countries are also very strong in hydro and wind power generation, with China expanding in hydro and India in wind power.”

Renewable energy is expected to be more widely adopted, as governments aim to curb fossil fuel emissions, for the dual reasons of compliance with international agreements on climate change and also to support new industries in the emerging green economy.

All fuel sources, apart from oil, will expand, but coal will remain the dominant source, still accounting for nearly 28 per cent of installed capacity and over 34 per cent of electricity generation in 2030.

“China and India are both expected to see strong growth in renewable energy and nuclear power as they aim to diversify away from fossil-fired generation,” observes Thaler. “The highest non-fossil electricity generation growth, however, will be in the Middle East and Africa, where solar power developments, in particular, will receive increased attention.”