Data from Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) suggests a mediocre third quarter for clean energy investment is likely to make 2012 the first global ‘down’ year in almost a decade.
Uncertainty in the key renewables markets of the USA, UK and Italy in addition to the poor performance renewables companies on public market contributed to an investment figure of $56.6 billion in the third quarter, down 5 per cent on the previous quarter, and 20 per cent lower year on year.
Additionally, the sharply declining cost of wind and solar PV technology means that the same MW capacity can now be purchased for significantly fewer dollars, BNEF noted.
$280 billion was invested in clean energy 2011 according to BNEF figures, a record, but the research firm did not estimate the likely 2012 figure.
“The fact that 2012 looks like being a down-year is disappointing, but not surprising – indeed we predicted as much in January,” said Michael Liebreich, BNEF chief executive. “The decline should not be exaggerated either. The third quarter figure was still well over $50 billion – roughly equivalent to investment in the whole of 2004.”
BNEF’s figures cover asset financing for generation projects, investments in small-scale distributed capacity, public market deals, mergers and acquisitions (M&A;), and venture capital and private equity raisings.
The BNEF noted that renewables activity is picking up in emerging markets even as it stalls in developed nations. “The location of some of biggest projects financed in Q3 this year highlight the geographical shift that is taking place in clean energy, with established markets such as the US, Europe and China losing momentum while newer markets in South America, Asia and Africa pick up steam,” Liebreich said.
The three largest projects to get the financial go-ahead between July and September were a 160 MW solar plant in Morocco costing $1 billion, a 300 MW Moroccan wind farm at $563 million, and a 258 MW portfolio of wind farms in Brazil at $497 million, according to BNEF.