Blackouts possible in Texas says grid operator

• 13 years ago (2011-12-02)
• David Flin

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The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) has said that the state needs more generating capacity if it is to avoid repeats of last February’s rolling blackouts and the summer’s power supply crises. Trip Doggett, Chief Executive of ERCOT, said: “Our assessment indicates a concern if we experience a simultaneous occurrence of extreme weather and worst-case generation outages.”

Doggett said that under normal winter conditions, peak demand should be 53,600 MW, compared with a normal generation capacity of 64,000 MW. However, extreme weather conditions could cause demand to rise to 60,000 MW, and generation could dip to 57,000 MW.

In a separate 10-year assessment, ERCOT said its reserve generating capacity “will likely fall below the minimum target beginning next summer.” ERCOT cites decisions to mothball some older generation units, delays in planned generation construction, and higher demand expectations. ERCOT expects to have a 12 percent reserve margin in the next two summer peak seasons, less than its recommended 13.75 percent margin.

Doggett said: “We are very concerned about the drop in the reserve margin. If we stay in the current cycle of hot and dry summers, we will be very tight on capacity next summer and have a repeat of this year’s emergency procedures and conservation appeals.” He said that the grid operator is working with the Public Utility Commission of Texas on rule changes that would include expansion of ERCOT’s emergency demand response programme.

Because of concerns over the persistent drought, the present level of generating capacity and further mothballing of generation units because of new clean air requirements, ERCOT has asked transmission operators to conduct a thorough review of the capacity that they can contribute to the grid.