
THE ENERGY INDUSTRY TIMES - APRIL 2026
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Headline News
Junior Isles
Global energy and natural resources
companies are moderating their ex-
pectations on when the world will
achieve net zero, as governments di-
lute their clean energy ambitions.
According to a new report, execu-
tives expect the world to reach net zero
carbon emissions by 2070 or later –
well after the 2050 date proposed by
a number of countries.
A survey that polled more than 800
executives globally across oil, gas,
utilities, chemicals, mining and agri-
business, shared with the FT Energy
Source by consultancy Bain, reported
that 44 per cent of executives now
expect the world will reach net zero
emissions by 2070 or later. This marks
a signicant shift from three years ago
when 45 per cent of respondents fore-
cast the world would meet a net zero
target in 2050 or earlier.
Former US President Joe Biden’s
agship climate policy, the Ination
Reduction Act (IRA), drove much of
the optimism and capital inows into
the country’s energy transition indus-
tries. Now that the Trump administra-
tion has rolled back many of the IRA’s
clean energy incentives, fewer exec-
utives expect the US to be an attractive
place for international investments
this year.
Executives still expect the global
economy to rely on hydrocarbons for
at least the next decade, with half of
European executives forecasting oil
could peak before 2035. But 41 per
cent of North American executives
don’t believe this will happen until
after 2050.
The survey came as China and India,
two of the world’s top three carbon
polluters issued new target for carbon
emissions.
In its latest 5-Year Plan, China,
which accounts for roughly 30 per
cent of global greenhouse gas emis-
sions, set a goal to cut carbon inten-
sity – emissions per unit of GDP – by
17 per cent by the end of the decade.
This compares with an 18 per cent
reduction for the ve years to 2025, a
goal that was missed.
Premier Li Qiang said the country
would continue to work towards peak-
ing carbon emissions and achieving
carbon neutrality, goals respectively
set down for 2030 and 2060.
According to E3G, the plan ulti-
mately reects a delicate balancing act
– sustaining economic growth and
industrial competitiveness, while ad-
vancing the energy transition.
“Although climate targets remain
aligned with long-term goals, they fall
short of fully capturing China’s capa-
bilities and the pace required global-
ly,” said the independent cli-
mate-change think-tank.
Meanwhile, in a much delayed plan,
which was originally due to be sub-
mitted to the UN just over a year ago,
India pledged to reduce its CO
2
emis-
sions relative to GDP by 47 per cent
by 2035, compared with 2005. It also
said renewables would make up 60
per cent of its cumulative installed
electricity capacity by 2035 – short of
the 70 per cent by 2036 estimate sug-
gested by the country’s Central Elec-
tricity Authority.
strategies to accelerate end-use
electrication and system integra-
tion across transport, heating and
industry, supported by exibility
markets, demand response and
short- and long-duration energy
storage. For sectors which cannot
be electried directly with renew-
ables, green hydrogen is the
solution.
n Scale up supply chains: Develop
robust industrial strategies for sup-
ply chain development with clear
milestones to expand renewable,
grid and storage deployment and
stockpiling. Create clear demand
signals and offtake frameworks,
increase pipeline visibility, and gen-
erate long-term revenue certainty,
to promote necessary investments
in critical manufacturing and labour
force capacity.
Meanwhile a new report by Public
First, produced in collaboration
with the Royal United Services In-
stitute (RUSI) and commissioned
by RenewableUK, highlights the
importance of investing in, and safe-
guarding the UK’s domestic energy
supply as a national security prior-
ity, recognising that there are unique
benets to renewables playing the
leading role in maintaining a resil-
ient low-cost power system.
The ndings draw on a detailed
wargame exercise involving ex-
perts from COBRA-level emergen-
cy planning, the National Energy
System Operator (NESO), National
Grid, National Gas, the Department
for Energy Security and Net Zero,
oil and gas companies and renew-
able energy developers. The authors
also conducted interviews with spe-
cialists from the Ministry of De-
fence, NATO and the Alan Turing
Institute. Across a wide range of
scenarios in the wargame – includ-
ing geopolitical conict, extreme
weather and infrastructure disrup-
tion – the UK continued to supply
electricity to households and busi-
nesses. However, exposure to glob-
al gas markets quickly pushed up
bills, leading to increased public
spending and political and scal
uncertainty that could be weap-
onised by hostile states.
Following Russia’s invasion of
Ukraine, the UK spent £50 billion
supporting consumers, while re-
newable power supported by xed-
price Contracts for Difference re-
turned money to consumers over the
same period. Analysis by Universi-
ty College London estimates that
renewables deployment has already
saved UK consumers over £100
billion since 2010 by lowering elec-
tricity prices and reducing exposure
to volatile gas markets.
Separate analysis from Aurora
Energy Research showed that as gas
markets have become more interna-
tional, prices have become more
volatile month-to-month. When gas
prices were more regionally deter-
mined, between 2012 and 2019, the
typical monthly price spread aver-
aged around 28p/therm. By 2024
and 2025, that gure had risen to
over 50p/therm – almost double –
underlining how exposure to global
gas markets increasingly feeds
straight through to volatile house-
hold bills.
Continued from Page 1
The EU Innovation Fund’s potential
for competitiveness and ghting cli-
mate change is being undermined by
slow deployment, a new report by the
European Court of Auditors (ECA)
has concluded.
With a €40 billion estimated budget
up to 2030, the fund aims to bring clean
technologies to market and support the
transition to a climate-neutral econo-
my. However, the fund’s deployment
has been limited, and its contribution
to reducing greenhouse gas emissions
has remained modest.
The Innovation Fund, which was
launched in 2020, is one of the world’s
largest programmes for supporting
competitiveness in the clean-tech sec-
tor through the scaling-up of innova-
tive net zero technologies. It supports
the transition to a climate-neutral econ-
omy by funding projects in energy-in-
tensive industries, renewable energy,
energy storage, and hydrogen, as well
as carbon capture, use and storage.
When looking ahead, assessing the
performance of the Innovation Fund is
critical. Lessons learned, said the ECA,
could help not only to improve the
Innovation Fund, but also to inform the
design of the proposed €451 billion for
the new European Competitiveness
Fund under the next long-term EU
budget for 2028-2034, which also aims
to scale up innovations in strategic
technologies.
“The Innovation Fund has strong
potential to strengthen the EU’s clean-
tech innovation and competitiveness
while reducing greenhouse gas emis-
sions,” said João Leão, the ECA Mem-
ber in charge of the audit. “However,
slow deployment and signicant proj-
ect delays and terminations have lim-
ited results so far. To maximise its
impact, clear strategic priorities, faster
deployment of funds, and more realis-
tic project assessments are needed”.
To date, around €13 billion in reve-
nues have been collected. But as of the
end of June 2025, almost ve years
after it was launched, actual payments
to projects were only €332 million –
less than 1 per cent of the Innovation
Fund’s overall budget. The slow de-
ployment is partly due to how the fund
is nanced: through the EU Emissions
Trading System (ETS).
As such revenue depends on carbon
market prices, the level of available
funding is inherently uncertain, and no
mechanism guarantees a minimum
level of resources. This uncertainty
affects the deployment of funds and,
ultimately, the reduction in greenhouse
gas emissions. Combined with the long
development timelines for projects,
this has resulted in substantial funds
being accumulated without being
spent. To mitigate this, the auditors call
for additional measures to be consid-
ered with a view to improving budget-
ary planning and enabling faster de-
ployment of funds.
Many of the projects selected expe-
rience delays, and roughly one in ve
fails before becoming operational,
even though the European Commis-
sion applies the requisite selection
criteria, and processes are generally
timely and well documented. Expected
emissions reductions – a key factor in
project selection – are calculated using
theoretical assumptions. According to
the auditors, this approach can lead to
optimistic projections and inuence
which projects receive funding.
By the end of 2024, €12 billion worth
of projects had been selected but only
ve (out of the 208 that had been allo-
cated funding) reported reductions in
greenhouse gas emissions. Overall, the
fund’s project portfolio achieved less
than 5 per cent of the emissions reduc-
tions that were anticipated.
Against this backdrop, the auditors
identied weaknesses in the way proj-
ect maturity was assessed. Several
projects initially evaluated as suf-
ciently mature were later cancelled or
delayed. This suggests that maturity
checks did not always reect the actu-
al readiness of the projects, resulting
in deadline extensions and implemen-
tation setbacks. The Commission
needs to improve project evaluation
methods and assess whether greater
exibility is needed.
Several countries are calling for the
EU’s emissions trading system (ETS)
to be suspended to soften its impact on
energy markets hit by the closure of
the Strait of Hormuz.
The ETS, which accounts for about
11 per cent of energy costs, requires
companies to hold allowances to cov-
er their carbon emissions and incentiv-
ises them to decarbonise.
Countries more dependent on fossil
fuels have targeted carbon costs as gas
prices have risen, with Italy’s Prime
Minister Giorgia Meloni calling for a
suspension of the scheme pending a
review this summer. German Chancel-
lor Friedrich Merz also called the ETS
system into question in March, prompt-
ing a drop in carbon prices by roughly
7 per cent to €71.40/t of CO
2
emitted,
although he later softened his stance.
Spain, however, has defended the EU
carbon trading system, warning that it
would be a “big error” to take it apart
to alleviate the energy price shock trig-
gered by the Iran war.
Spain’s Energy Minister Sara Aag-
esen Muñoz told the FT that using “this
crisis to change a system that works is
irresponsible and a big error”, adding:
“The ETS needs to last and we can’t
ignore the lessons learned about the
war in Ukraine.”
The scheme had also come under
pressure in an energy crisis that was
exacerbated by the full-scale invasion
of Ukraine in 2022, when Russia cut
gas supplies to Europe. But the bloc
refrained from suspending the carbon
market during that period.
Aagesen said the ETS was once again
“under threat” but should be preserved
because it had been a “huge success”
in promoting green innovation and
investment in Europe.
She said she could support measures
to make sure ETS proceeds are invest-
ed in decarbonisation and to reduce
volatility of carbon prices using a sta-
bility reserve of carbon credits.
EU members had expressed their
concerns ahead of a Council meeting
in late March, where EU leaders kept
the ETS intact and said the already
scheduled review remains on track for
July 2026.
EU ETS under spotlight as global energy crisis deepens
Sentiment shifts on
net zero timeline
n China to cut carbon intensity by 17 per cent by 2030 in latest Five-Year Plan
n Executives see 2070 as more likely net zero timeline
EU Innovation Fund deployment too slow
for clean-tech sector, says ECA
Photo by Quang Nguyen Vinh
The Alan Turing Institute
supported a study on how
energy could be weaponised