THE ENERGY INDUSTRY TIMES - MARCH 2026

Final Word

f there was any debate about

whether climate change is in-

creasingly taking a back seat as a

driver in the energy transition, it was

largely put to bed at the International

Energy Agency’s ministerial meeting

last month. Speaking as energy min-

isters gathered in Paris for its bien-

nial meeting, Fatih Birol, the IEA’s

Executive Director said climate

change was “moving down the inter-

national policy agenda”.

Although there were a number of

positive developments during the

discussions – such as an agreement by

IEA member governments to move

ahead on building deeper institutional

ties with Brazil, Colombia, India and

Vietnam – the gathering was marked

by a division over the importance of

renewables, with the US castigating

net zero ambitions.

As climate change slips down the

political agenda, energy security has

now taken centre stage. Notably, a

summary of the IEA meeting prepared

by chair Sophie Hermans, the Dutch

Energy Minister, focused largely on

energy security. Although it said “a

large majority” of ministers stressed

the importance of moving towards net

zero emissions it also noted the con-

tinued importance of oil and gas.

Two other high-level dialogues had

featured discussions on safeguarding

energy security in the ‘Age of Electric-

ity’ and on investing in Ukraine’s future

energy security, with the participation

of Ukrainian First Deputy Prime

Minister and Minister of Energy De-

nys Shmyhal.

Indeed, the tone had been set by

France’s President Emannuel Macron.

Citing the signicance of Russia’s

attacks on Ukraine’s energy infra-

structure, he said that energy was a

major component of his country’s

“strategic autonomy” and “a central

dimension” of France’s sovereignty.

Acknowledging that energy security

is now top of the agenda, Birol said

ministers “agreed in different discus-

sions that energy security is the funda-

ment of everything”.

The IEA noted in its recent ‘Electric-

ity 2026’ report, that greater efforts are

needed to improve the security and

resilience of power systems around the

world, which face rising risks associ-

ated with ageing infrastructure, ex-

treme weather events, cyberthreats

and other emerging vulnerabilities.

In some ways, it seems that circum-

stances have led the IEA back to its

roots. The agency was formed over 50

years ago to ensure the security of oil

supplies in response to the 1973-1974

oil crisis. And although energy secu-

rity remains a central part of its mis-

sion, the organisation has since

evolved. It now has a wider mandate

to focus on a full range of energy is-

sues, including climate change and

decarbonisation, energy access and

efciency, investment and innovation,

and ensuring reliable, affordable and

sustainable energy systems.

In pointed rhetoric aimed at shifting

global attention away from net zero,

while pressuring other countries to

align with current US energy policy,

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright

said the IEA should go back to its

original role. He called the IEA’s 2050

net zero modelling “ridiculous”, and

said it should focus on its role as an

international data recording agency,

which is focused on energy security.

Wright claimed that many countries

have agreed in private with the US

stance to move away from net zero

goals, and continue to increase produc-

tion and consumption of fossil fuels.

Threatening to withdraw from the

agency, he said: “There has been such

a group mentality, 10 years invested

in a destructive illusion of net zero by

2050, that the US will use all the pres-

sure we have to get the IEA to eventu-

ally, in the next year or so, to move

away from this agenda.”

No doubt it is better for the IEA to

keep the US onside, but at what cost?

The US has paid about $6 million

(€5.10 million) per year in IEA dues,

out of a total agency budget of $22

million. It would be a signicant hit to

the IEA but might be a small price to

pay if net zero is to remain a key part

of the discussion and therefore an end

goal.

Some countries played down the US

threats. French Finance Minister Ro-

land Lescure said: “The worst is

never certain. I spoke with Chris

Wright, I am convinced we have

enough common subjects to work on

together, including nuclear energy,”

Lescure said.

Lescure reinforced France’s com-

mitment to clean energy, and said the

goal was to electrify its industry to rely

less on oil and gas.

“France and Europe’s strategic and

structural answer is electrication. We

of course still have gas needs, notably

for the industrial sector, and I’m very

happy the US can meet that need, but

objectively the long-term goal is to exit

a dependence on imported fossil en-

ergy that is still too great,” Lescure

said.

This desire to end dependence on

fossil fuel imports is indeed driving

European countries to re-examine

their oil and gas strategies. In a recent

interview with the Financial Times,

Mathios Rigas, Chief Executive of

Energean said Greece, Italy and Cy-

prus had shown signs of changing

tack. He said Energean was in talks

over new exploration licences, in-

cluding in an area next to one of its

Greek prospects.

“I’m not saying we are there, but we

are at least in active discussions about

reopening exploration,” he told the FT.

“The Italian government is actively

looking at allowing new activities to

happen, when a few years ago it wasn’t

even… on the agenda.”

While new modelling issued by the

IEA in November predicts oil and gas

demand will rise for 25 years under

governments’ current policies, renew-

ables will continue to replace fossil

fuels as the go-to source for new

power generation – if not for net zero

emissions ambitions, then for energy

security as well as economics.

Addressing the ministerial meeting

via video link António Guterres,

Secretary-General of the United Na-

tions, said: “Renewables are now the

cheapest, fastest and safest source of

new electricity almost everywhere.

Investors know it: last year, $2 trillion

owed into clean energy – nearly twice

as much as into fossil fuels.

And as data centres and AI increas-

ingly drive electricity demand, renew-

able generation will continue to surge

– at least outside of the US – to keep

a lid on power prices.

In a recent interview with the FT,

Zhang Lei, founder and CEO of

China’s Envision Energy, one of the

world’s biggest wind turbine manu-

facturers, said power-hungry AI risks

tipping millions into “energy poverty”

unless investors pour more money

into renewables. He argued that the

case for clean energy was now driven

by mathematics rather than climate

change.

Zhang predicted global electricity

demand would rise as much as 10-fold

over the next decade, while fossil fuels

would become progressively more

expensive to extract as supplies are

depleted, risking higher energy bills

unless more wind and solar farms are

developed.

“For this AI revolution, lots of people

may end up with energy poverty,” he

said… “If we think long-term, we need

a renewable energy system that is in-

nite, inexpensive and trained by AI.

We have to build this renewable en-

ergy system, not just because of the

climate crisis,” he told the FT. “It’s

because of long-term prosperity. This

is just mathematics. It is so simple even

my eight-year-old daughter can gure

it out.”

So, whether the end goal, or main

driver at any point in time, is climate

change, energy security, or the price

of energy, the key tools to get there

seem to be centred around clean en-

ergy. The destinations may change but

the pathway remains the same.

Different destinations,

same pathway

Junior Isles

Cartoon by Jem Soar