
THE ENERGY INDUSTRY TIMES - JUNE 2025
2
Junior Isles
A UK–EU Agreement that includes a
commitment to linking their respec-
tive Emissions Trading Schemes
(ETS) could lower bills and support
both the UK and EU in meeting their
decarbonisation goals.
The agreement marks the start of
negotiations to not only align their
ETS’ but also their commitment to
work together to create more jobs in
the clean energy sector.
The UK government said the agree-
ment aims to maximise cooperation
on renewable technologies, while
supporting thousands of jobs and
boosting growth in technologies in-
cluding hydrogen and carbon capture
use and storage.
Commenting on the announcement,
RenewableUK’s Executive Director
of Policy, Ana Musat, said: “This is
potentially great news for billpayers
in the UK and across the rest of Eu-
rope, as it could drive down the cost
of electricity in the years ahead by
stabilising prices and reducing trade
friction – including trading in clean
electricity generated in the North
Sea via interconnectors between
countries.
“Crucially, it could remove the need
for the EU’s Carbon Border Adjust-
ment Mechanism (CBAM) which is
a tax on exports of electricity and
goods from the UK and other coun-
tries into the EU.
The UK organisation representing
the renewable energy sector said the
UK and the EU share the same ambi-
tions on decarbonisation to tackle
climate change while reducing energy
bills for consumers, “so aligning the
Emissions Trading Schemes would be
a natural next step” towards doing
business more efciently with each
other.
Enhanced cooperation on carbon
pricing would deliver clear benets
for businesses, reducing administra-
tive burdens, lowering costs, easing
trade friction, and supporting both the
UK and EU in meeting their decar-
bonisation goals, say industry experts.
Rachel Solomon Williams, Execu-
tive Director at the Aldersgate Group,
said: “The explicit recognition that
[ETS] linkage should enable UK and
U goods to benet from mutual e-
emptions from respective CBAMs,
was heartening.
“This Agreement signals the begin-
ning of formal negotiations on ETS
linkage, and it is essential that the UK
government maintains momentum.
Timely progress is vital to provide the
policy certainty that businesses and
investors need. In particular, we call
for urgent clarity on how these nego-
tiations will intersect with compliance
requirements under the EU CBAM.
With the EU CBAM entering full
implementation in 2026 and the UK’s
expected in 2027, businesses on both
sides of the Channel need a stable
policy framework to inform strategic
investment decisions.”
Aldersgate also welcomed broader
commitments to deepen cooperation
on electricity markets and expand
regulatory dialogue on emerging low-
carbon technologies.
“This government made a commit-
ment to deliver growth underpinned
by a modern industrial strategy and
the decarbonisation of our energy sys-
tems, today’s agreement marks a sig-
nicant step forward, said illiams.
The UK and the EU also agreed to
put the Trade and Co-operation
Agreement’s Energy chapter on a per-
manent footing and the government
will also explore the possibility for the
UK to participate in the EU’s internal
electricity market.
Ben Wilson, President of National
Grid Ventures commented: “We
strongly welcome this clear commit-
ment to improve how we trade and
collaborate on energy with Europe.
Today is a positive step in the right
direction to reduce trade barriers, re-
duce costs for UK and European con-
sumers, and to maimise the benets
of secure homegrown energy in the
North Sea.”
The UK is one of Europe’s largest
producers of wind power and the deal
will allow the country to export sur-
plus electricity, while also reducing
the costs of importing solar and nu-
clear power. This will in turn boost
the nation’s GDP, while increasing
energy security.
enactment and nish construction
by year-end 2028. Otherwise, they
will no longer be eligible for tax
credits.
Diego Espinosa, Senior Research
Analyst at Wood Mackenzie, said
the bill introduces “additional
stress” to its wind outlook. “While
it encourages a focus on operation-
al readiness and project completion,
it also poses challenges for invest-
ments and complicates nancing.
The bill rolls back a number of the
IRA’s programmes and provisions,
such as the Greenhouse Gas Reduc-
tion Fund and funding to reduce air
pollution. It would also remove the
30 per cent federal tax credit for
taxpayers who install solar rooftop
systems, posing a signicant chal-
lenge to the industry.
Investors were surprised by the
scale of changes to IRA-era clean
energy incentives since the initial
draft of the bill was released on May
12. Analysts at Jefferies equity re-
search said that while the Senate
would tinker with the House’s pro-
posals, the cuts that Republicans
included in the updated text of their
budget were “sledgehammer
strikes” and the outcome was
“worse than feared”.
Clean energy stakeholders now
turn their attention to the Senate,
where the bill is headed before it is
sent to the President, hoping it will
reverse many of the proposed revi-
sions to the IRA.
Share prices in US renewable
companies plummeted following
the vote. Sunrun led the slide, with
shares falling nearly 41 per cent,
SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG.O),
fell nearly 26 per cent. JinkoSolar,
dipped 4.7 per cent, while First So-
lar and Canadian Solar dropped 5.4
per cent and 6.4 per cent, respec-
tively. Shares in NextEra Energy,
the biggest US power group by
market capitalisation and the coun-
try’s largest developer of renewable
energy, closed 6.4 per cent lower.
The fossil fuels lobby lauded the
bill, with the American Petroleum
Institute saying it would help “re-
store American energy dominance”.
Wood Mackenzie noted that the
biggest winner in the proposed
House bill is carbon capture, utilisa-
tion and storage (CCUS), as the 45Q
tax credit remains largely un-
changed. Rohan Dighe, Research
Analyst at Wood Mackenzie, said:
“While the Ways and Means Com-
mittee’s proposal does include two
modications to the 4 carbon
sequestration tax credit, its value
and duration – attributes that make
it one of the most attractive CCUS
incentives in the world – remain
intact.”
Another small positive for the cli-
mate change lobby is that tax cred-
its affecting the nuclear sector were
exempted from the cuts.
Continued from Page 1
The European Union has unveiled a
plan for EU companies to end any re-
maining energy contracts with Russia
by 2027 and instead source gas from
elsewhere, including the US.
The strategy bans new contracts by
the end of 2025 and mandates the ter-
mination of existing long-term agree-
ments by 2027.
Dan Jørgensen, the EU Energy, in-
sisted the plan would be effective and
would end European energy depen-
dency on Russia.
“It will also be legally feasible and
something that member states will be
able to support,” said Jørgensen. He
promised “new solutions” to enable
companies to break their contracts.
Prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
in 2022, the EU sourced more than 40
per cent of its pipeline gas imports and
about 28 per cent of imported crude oil
from Russia. The bloc’s share has since
dropped to about 13 per cent of gas
imports, including liqueed natural
gas (LNG), and less than 3 per cent of
oil imports.
ut despite the signicant decrease
in pipeline gas, the EU has increased
its imports of LNG from Russia, with
shipments hitting record levels last
year.
ccording to ofcials, the Commis-
sion’s plan is intended in part to signal
to Washington that the EU is ready to
buy more US LNG as part of a deal
to reduce its trade decit, ofcials
have said.
Jørgensen acknowledged that this
would be up to private companies, but
said he was “in dialogue with quite a
few”, and US suppliers were “very
eager and willing” to boost exports to
Europe.
he Commission was quite con-
dent” that the EU could phase out
Russian fuels in a way that would not
hurt Europe’s competitiveness or its
citizens, he added. This would be
done with the help of supplies from
“Norway, [the] US, Qatar and certain
north African countries”, Jørgensen
said.
He added that efforts backed by US
investors to restart ows through the
Nord Stream 2 pipeline that runs be-
tween Russia and Germany would not
affect the Commission’s aim of inde-
pendence from Russian fuel.
A recent report by global energy
market analytics provider Aurora En-
ergy Research examined major geo-
political risks to global gas markets,
the uncertainty of future European
supply, and the ripple effect of tariffs
on prices in the US, Europe, and Asia
due to LNG rerouting.
The report highlights that a resump-
tion of Russian pipeline gas would
have a substantial impact on Euro-
pean energy prices, whereas tariff
trade disruptions could subdue US
growth, while offering mixed results
for other regions.
t the start of this year, the veyear
agreement between Ukraine and Rus-
sia expired, which had allowed Rus-
sian gas to be transported to Europe
through pipelines in Ukraine. Aurora
modelled various scenarios of Rus-
sian gas transport, comparing the
baseline case with scenarios where the
ow either fully resumes or is com-
pletely halted.
If ussian gas ows were to resume
at pre-war levels, the European bench-
mark (TTF) gas prices would decline
by 7 per cent in 2030-2060, alleviating
market pressures across the region. A
potential return of Russian pipeline
supply would reduce the need for
LNG imports, which have played a
vital role in compensating for lost
transit volumes through Ukraine. If
access to more affordable Russian gas
is restored, the importance of LNG
will diminish signicantly, particu-
larly in Germany where demand could
drop by 5-12 bcm/y, according to Au-
rora’s assessment.
A new report from Wood Mackenzie
nds that despite surging power de-
mand, the gas turbine market could
experience “turbo lag” in the next 15
years due to manufacturing con-
straints, rising costs, and competition
from renewables.
The report, titled ‘Turbocharged vs
turbo lag: The new landscape for gas-
red power, projects that around 80
G of new gas red generation ca-
pacity will be added globally between
2025 to 2040. Combined, China and
the US average 47 per cent of global
annual additions from 2025 to 2040.
Other markets and regions, including
Southeast Asia, India, and the EU27
range from 53 per cent of global an-
nual additions from 2025 to 2040.
However, several factors may limit
growth, particularly in the near-term,
says the report.
Manufacturing capacity constraints
could delay new gas plant construc-
tion. Wood Mackenzie calculates
around 0 per cent utilisation of gas
turbine manufacturing capacity in
2025, which could cause some US
developers to nd that 2030 or beyond
is the earliest opportunity to bring new
combined cycle capacity online.
In the US, skyrocketing capital costs
and electricity market prices below
the cost of new gas generation pose
challenges.
In Asia, high imported gas costs
limit gas to a peaking role despite
strong power demand growth.
In Europe, decarbonisation goals are
pushing unabated gas to the margins
by 2040.
“While power markets will require
natural gas red power as part of the
energy transition through 2040, gas’s
role will have limits,” said David
Brown, Director of Energy Transition
Research at Wood Mackenzie. “High
fuel costs in some regions, rising con-
struction costs, and continued cost
declines for renewables and energy
storage will constrain gas’s growth
potential.”
Headline News
Gas turbine market could experience “turbo lag” in 15 years
UK and EU alignment on
clean energy could drive down
clean energy could drive down
electricity bills and emissions
electricity bills and emissions
n Talks to link UK and EU emissions trading schemes
n Electricity costs could fall as prices stabilise and trade friction reduces
EU proposes deadline to end Russian energy imports
Photo by Andreas Gücklhorn
Wood Mackenzie’s
Rohan Dighe says CCUS is the
biggest winner