
THE ENERGY INDUSTRY TIMES - MARCH 2025
2
Junior isles
The world’s electricity consumption is
forecast to rise at its fastest pace in
recent years, growing at nearly 4 per
cent annually through 2027 as power
use climbs in several sectors across the
economy, according to a new Interna-
tional Energy Agency (IEA) report.
‘Electricity 2025’, the latest edition
of the IEA’s main market analysis of
the sector, forecasts that the growth in
global demand will be the equivalent
of adding an amount greater than Ja-
pan’s annual electricity consumption
every year between now and 2027. The
surge is primarily driven by robust
growing use of electricity for indus-
trial production, increased demand for
air conditioning, accelerating electri-
cation, led by the transport sector, and
the rapid expansion of data centres.
Most of the additional demand over
the next three years will come from
emerging and developing economies,
which account for 85 per cent of the
demand growth. The trend is most
pronounced in China where electricity
demand has been growing faster than
the overall economy since 2020. Chi-
na’s electricity consumption rose by 7
per cent in 2024 and is expected to grow
by an average of around 6 per cent
through 2027. The demand growth in
China has been fuelled in part by the
industrial sector, where alongside the
traditional energy-intensive sectors,
the rapidly expanding electricity-in-
tensive manufacturing of solar panels,
batteries, electric vehicles and associ-
ated materials played a signicant role.
Air conditioning, electric vehicle adop-
tion, data centres and 5G networks are
additional contributors.
“The acceleration of global electric-
ity demand highlights the signicant
changes taking place in energy sys-
tems around the world and the ap-
proach of a new Age of Electricity. But
it also presents evolving challenges
for governments in ensuring secure,
affordable and sustainable electricity
supply,” said IEA Director of Energy
Markets and Security Keisuke
Sadamori. “While emerging and de-
veloping economies are set to drive the
large majority of the growth in global
electricity demand in the coming years,
consumption is also expected to in-
crease in many advanced economies
after a period of relative stagnation.
Policy makers need to pay close atten-
tion to these shifting dynamics, which
will be addressed at the international
‘Summit on the Future of Energy Se-
curity’ that the IEA is hosting with the
UK government in London in April.”
The new report forecasts that growth
in low-emissions sources – primarily
renewables and nuclear is sufcient,
in aggregate, to cover all the growth in
global electricity demand over the next
three years. In particular, generation
from solar PV is forecast to meet
roughly half of global electricity de-
mand growth through 2027, supported
by continued cost reductions and pol-
icy support.
A separate report from the IEA, how-
ever, also revealed that global coal red
power generation continued to grow in
2024, albeit at a slower pace, rising 1
per cent year-on-year after a 1.7 per
cent increase in 2023. Going forward,
coal red generation is expected to
remain relatively stable as more clean
energy use curbs expansion.
eanwhile, natural gas red power
generation rose 2.6 per cent in 2024,
marking a new global high. The Middle
East is projected to drive growth in gas-
red power through 22, particularly
in Saudi Arabia, where gas generation
is expected to rise by 10 per cent as the
country transitions away from oil.
Europe was the only major region
where gas red generation declined in
2024, largely due to high gas prices and
a colder winter. The IEA forecasts that
global gas red power generation will
see modest annual growth of around 1
per cent in 2026-2027, with rising de-
mand in China, India, and Southeast
Asia balancing declines in advanced
economies. Additionally, the role of
gas red plants in providing exibility
to power systems is expected to in-
crease worldwide.
the US out of the climate accord
during his rst week of ofce.
This has led Argentina to propose
withdrawing from the pact. Indone-
sia is also now questioning the use-
fulness of the Paris Agreement fol-
lowing the US’s exit.
Mabey said that delaying submis-
sions by three to six months “was
not so much a problem”, because it
would ensure countries could pro-
duce solid plans. “It would be much
better if it was as high ambition as
possible, but also that it was linked
very clearly to both national imple-
mentation procedures and interna-
tional support,” he said.
U ofcial also said the uality
of the climate plans was the most
important consideration and coun-
tries should take the extra time to
deliver the best plans.
EU ofcials say the bloc will be
late submitting its plan amid con-
cerns that its green agenda will
hamper economic growth.
The EU’s Green Deal, aimed at
decarbonising the economy, was
launched in 2019 but has since come
under re from European compa-
nies complaining of high energy
prices and overregulation. Member
states are also concerned about wan-
ing economic growth, while the US’
decision to withdraw from the Pais
Agreement and scrap climate goals
has increased calls for the bloc to
rethink its entire approach.
European Commission Vice-
President Teresa Ribera told the
Financial Times: “The global real-
ity has evolved, and we may need
to think to what extent these things
that were there need to be updated.”
The Commission says, however,
that it must stick to its climate goals
and must therefore balance protec-
tion of the planet with improving
the continents agging competi-
tiveness. “We need to ensure that
there’s a story of growth and pros-
perity,” said Ribera, who is in charge
of the green transition and competi-
tion, adding that this was a ne line
that we need to strike”.
Last month Ribera laid out how
the Commission might achieve
this. She promised to mobilise more
than €100 billion to support clean
manufacturing, including via the
European Investment Bank. The
bloc’s next multi-year budget,
which still has to be agreed, would
also include a competitiveness fund
to boost European research and
manufacturing of clean tech.
A Clean Industrial Deal will lay
out how to boost demand for made-
in-Europe products – from steel to
chemicals and cars – through
streamlining public procurement
and allowing the most power-inten-
sive plants to get backing from the
European Investment Bank when
they purchase energy. The commis-
sioner will also propose joint pur-
chasing and strategic stockpiles of
17 critical raw materials.
Another area of action will be to
drastically cut the number of small
and medium companies affected by
existing environmental regulations,
reducing their reporting require-
ments and giving businesses more
time to comply with the revised
rules.
As greenhouse gas emissions con-
tinue to rise and annual tempera-
tures increase, experts have ques-
tioned whether it is still feasible to
regard a limit of warming within
1.5°C as achievable.
Two recent studies, published in
the journal Nature, both said the
lower limit of the Paris accord
looked increasingly out of reach
without urgent climate action.
Continued from Page 1
Natural gas will play a vital role in the
energy transition, supporting the ex-
pansion of renewables and accelerat-
ing the shift away from coal, accord-
ing to the latest ‘Horizons report’ from
Wood Mackenzie.
The report, titled ‘The bridge: Natu-
ral gas’s crucial role as a transitional
energy source’, emphasizes that while
the world is increasingly turning to
renewable energy, natural gas remains
fundamental to meeting global energy
needs and reducing emissions in the
medium-term.
“Gas demand has surged by 80 per
cent over the past 25 years, now meet-
ing almost a quarter of the world’s
energy needs,” said Massimo Di Odo-
ardo, Vice President of Gas and LNG
Research at Wood Mackenzie. “Its
success lies in the scale of global
resources, low production costs, ease
of storage and dispatch, and com-
parative environmental advantages.”
urging electrication, increasingly
delivered by renewable power sourc-
es, will lead the charge to curb CO
2
emissions, says the report. Electrica-
tion can only move so fast, however,
and the adoption of emerging low-
carbon technologies, such as hydro-
gen, is currently too slow to achieve
net zero emissions by 2050. With coal
still accounting for 30 per cent of the
world’s energy needs, shifting to gas
as a transition fuel is a compelling op-
tion, argues Wood Mackenzie.
Despite its vital role in the future
energy mix, the report also highlights
that challenges remain. It says high
LNG prices since 2022 risk undermin-
ing the full potential of wider gas
adoption in Asia and that carbon
prices would be needed to shift the
market.
“In China and India, where gas usage
is mainly used for peak shaving, gas
demand is still expected to grow by
almost 100 bcm through to 2050 in
the power sector, offering the most
practical option for ensuring exibil-
ity as renewable investments surge,”
said Di Odoardo. “Without a carbon
price of around US$100/tonne, reduc-
ing China’s and India’s dependency
on baseload coal looks like a massive
ask. But the prize could be a reduction
of more than 300 Mt of CO
2
by 2035.”
Emissions remain an issue as well,
said Wood Mackenzie. Gas and LNG
both produce substantial greenhouse
gas (GHG). However, according to
the report, claims that the LNG value
chain is more GHG-intensive than
coal is unfounded.
“Our analysis shows that, on aver-
age, LNG has around 60 per cent
lower GHG intensity than coal. Even
when considering a 20-year global
warming potential (GWP) and com-
paring methane-intensive LNG with
coal burnt in highly efcient plants,
LNG is still 26 per cent less GHG-
intensive,” said Di Odoardo. “Never-
theless, its carbon dioxide and meth-
ane emissions need to be addressed as
a matter of urgency to ensure its pri-
macy as a bridging fuel.”
The report concludes that natural
gas, particularly LNG, will be critical
in the shift to a lower-carbon future,
bridging the gap as emerging low-
carbon technologies strive to reach
critical mass.
Europe needs an energy security strat-
egy that is based on clean electrica-
tion, according to a recent report pub-
lished by Eurelectric, the organisation
that represents Europe’s electricity
sector.
The study, carried out by Compass
Lexecon on behalf of Eurelectric and
formally unveiled at the Munich Se-
curity Conference, demonstrates the
need for a new approach to energy
security based on clean electrication
to reduce fuel imports dependence,
lower exposure to commodities price
shocks and boost crises resilience.
Providing a backdrop for the study,
Eurelectric noted: “Cables in the Bal-
tic repeatedly sabotaged, devastating
storms leaving Ireland in the dark, war
raging in Ukraine and price shocks
caused by Russia’s fuel disruptions:
Europe’s energy system is being chal-
lenged like never before.
“Meanwhile, Europe is decarbonis-
ing its economy with clean and renew-
able power set to meet 60 per cent of
nal energy use by 2. s energy
needs evolve, so should Europe’s en-
ergy security strategy.”
The EU’s current energy security
strategy was adopted in 2014, at a time
when countries relied heavily on Rus-
sian imports and renewables made up
only a small fraction of the overall
mix. Today, this picture has funda-
mentally changed.
Energy imports are expected to de-
crease from 60 per cent of EU energy
supply in 2022 to 13 per cent by 2050,
thanks to transport and heating
electrication. enewables are set to
generate 69 per cent of total power
by 2030 and Russian oil and gas will
be gradually phased out. These devel-
opments call for an integrated power-
led security approach.
“Energy security has always been a
problem but it has never been such a
tough problem,” said Eurelectric’s
President and E.On CEO Leonhard
Birnbaum. “The recent year has
shown us that business-as-usual in
Europe is no longer an option. With
the threats faced by our sector, secu-
rity of supply is becoming an urgent
priority that policymakers and regula-
tors must acknowledge [this].”
To secure Europe’s power supply,
the study suggests strengthening
three pillars:
1. Better planning: Preparedness
frameworks should encompass the
entire value chain, include all energy
vectors, infrastructure, span across
longer timeframes and factor in ex-
ternal threats to better identify system
needs.
2. lexibility massive exible ca-
pacity will be needed to complement
variable renewables – 175 GW should
come from new storage technologies
and demand side response by 2030.
To incentivise investments, capacity
mechanisms and exibility support
schemes will be crucial.
3. Functioning markets: effective
price signals should reect system
needs and allow consumers to con-
tribute to security of supply by adjust-
ing their energy use.
Headline News
Europe must base energy security on clean electrication
Electricity demand
growth set to accelerate,
growth set to accelerate,
says IEA
n Annual consumption forecast to rise at nearly 4 per cent
n atural gas red poer generation mars ne gloal high
Natural gas remains the crucial bridge in the energy transition