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July-August 2024 • Volume 17 • No 5 • Published monthly • ISSN 1757-7365

THE ENERGY INDUSTRY TIMES is published by Man in Black Media • www.mibmedia.com • Editor-in-Chief: Junior Isles • For all enquiries email: enquiries@teitimes.com

Scaling network

capacity

Improving cyber

resilience

Britain’s Labour government has hit the

ground running in terms of enabling

renewables. But can it deliver much

needed network capacity? Page 12

The energy sector is now a prime

target for cyber criminals. So how can

organisations protect themselves?

Page 13

News In Brief

Von der Leyen re-election

will continue clean energy

drive

The re-election of Ursula von der

Leyen as President of the European

Commission looks set to continue

the EUs drive towards meeting its

clean energy goals, while improv-

ing industrial competitiveness.

Page 2

Wind power potential keeps

Brazil at front of pack

Brazil’s offshore wind potential can

be a pivotal player in the country’s

future energy landscape, according

to a new World Bank report.

Page 4

China demonstrates clean

energy leadership

Nearly two-thirds of the world’s

large wind and solar energy proj-

ects are in China, according to a

new study by the Global Energy

Monitor.

Page 5

EU renewable hydrogen

targets unrealistic

European Union targets for produc-

ing and importing renewable hy-

drogen fuel are unrealistic and un-

likely to be met, according to a new

report from the European Court of

Auditors.

Page 7

Energy Transition

Investment Series: Spain

Spain is a strong clean energy in-

vestment jurisdiction with abun-

dant renewable resources and ambi-

tious renewable energy targets.

Page 14

Technology Focus: A

software approach to

managing emissions

A new emissions management soft-

ware solution can help companies

address the modern complexities of

managing their carbon emissions.

Page 15

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Growth in demand in 2024 and 2025 is forecast to be among the highest levels in the past two

decades a new IEA report nds, with solar PV alone expected to meet half of the increase.

COP28 renewables target at risk despite rapid growth

THE ENERGY INDUSTRY

TIMES

Final Word

There’s no escaping the

green transition, says

Junior Isles. Page 16

The world’s demand for electricity is

rising at its fastest rate in years, driven

by robust economic growth, intense

heatwaves and increasing uptake of

technologies that run on electricity

such as electric vehicles (EVs) and heat

pumps, according to a new report by

the International Energy Agency

(IEA). At the same time, renewables

continue their rapid rise, with solar PV

on course to set new records.

Global electricity demand is forecast

to grow by around 4 per cent in 2024,

up from 2.5 per cent in 2023, the IEA’s

‘Electricity Mid-Year Update’ nds.

This would represent the highest an-

nual growth rate since 2007, exclud-

ing the exceptional rebounds seen in

the wake of the global nancial crisis

and the Covid-19 pandemic. The

strong increase in global electricity

consumption is set to continue into

2025, with growth around 4 per cent

again, according to the report.

Renewable sources of electricity are

also set to expand rapidly this year and

next, with their share of global elec-

tricity supply forecast to rise from 30

per cent in 2023 to 35 per cent in 2025.

The amount of electricity generated

by renewables worldwide in 2025 is

forecast to eclipse the amount gener-

ated by coal for the rst time. Solar PV

alone is expected to meet roughly half

of the growth in global electricity de-

mand over 2024 and 2025 – with solar

and wind combined meeting as much

as three-quarters of the growth.

Despite the sharp increases in re-

newables, global power generation

from coal is unlikely to decline this

year due to the strong growth in

demand, especially in China and In-

dia, according to the report. As a re-

sult, carbon dioxide (CO

) emissions

from the global power sector are pla-

teauing, with a slight increase in 2024

followed by a decline in 2025.

However, considerable uncertainties

remain: Chinese hydropower produc-

tion recovered strongly in the rst half

of 2024 from its 2023 low. If this up-

ward trend continues in the second

half of the year, it could curb coal red

power generation and result in a slight

Continued on Page 2

The ‘Renewable Energy Statistics

2024’ released by the International

Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)

last month shows that despite renew-

ables becoming the fastest growing

source of power, the world risks miss-

ing the tripling renewables target

pledged at COP28. To stay the course,

the world will now have to grow re-

newables capacity at a minimum 16.4

per cent rate annually through 2030.

The unprecedented 14 per cent in-

crease in renewables capacity during

2023 established a 10 per cent com-

pound annual growth rate (2017-

2023). Combined with the constant

decreasing additions of non-renew-

able capacity over the years, the trend

sees renewable energy on its way to

overtaking fossil fuels in global in-

stalled power capacity.

However, if last year’s 14 per cent

increase rate continues, the tripling

target of 11.2 TW in 2030 outlined by

IRENA’s 1.5°C Scenario will fall 1.5

TW short, missing the target by 13.5

per cent. Furthermore, if the world

keeps the historic annual growth rate

of 10 per cent, it will only accumulate

7.5 TW of renewables capacity by

2030, missing the target by almost

one-third.

IRENA Director-General, Frances-

co La Camera, said, “Renewable en-

ergy has been increasingly outper-

forming fossil fuels, but it is not the

time to be complacent. Renewables

must grow at higher speed and scale.

Our new report sheds light on the di-

rection of travel; if we continue with

the current growth rate, we will only

face failure in reaching the tripling

renewables target agreed in the UAE

Consensus at COP28, consequently

risking the goals of the Paris Agree-

ment and 2030 Agenda for Sustain-

able Development.”

Dr. Sultan bin Ahmed Al Jaber, Min-

ister of Industry and Advanced Tech-

nology, COP28 President, warned:

“… while we are making progress, we

are off track to meet the global goal of

tripling renewable energy capacity to

11.2 TW by 2030. We need to increase

the pace and scale of development.

That means increasing collaboration

between governments, the private

sector, multilateral organisations, and

civil society.

“Governments need to set explicit

renewable energy targets, look at ac-

tions like accelerating permitting and

expanding grid connections, and im-

plement smart policies that push in-

dustries to step up and incentivise the

private sector to invest.

“Additionally, this moment pro-

vides a signicant opportunity to add

strong national energy targets in

NDCs [Nationally Determined Con-

tributions] to support the global goal

of keeping the 1.5°C target within

reach. Above all, we must change the

narrative that climate investment is a

burden to it being an unprecedented

opportunity for shared socio-econom-

ic development.”

In terms of power generation, the

latest data available for 2022 con-

rmed yet again the regional disparity

in renewables deployment. Asia holds

its position as leader in global renew-

able power generation with 3749 Ter-

awatt hours (TWh), followed for the

rst time by North America (1493

TWh). The most impressive jump oc-

curred in South America, where re-

newable power generation increased

by nearly 12 per cent to 940 TWh, due

to a hydropower recovery and a great-

er role of solar energy.

With a modest growth of 3.5 per

cent, Africa increased its renewable

power generation to 205 TWh in

2022, despite the continent’s tremen-

dous potential and immense need for

rapid, sustainable growth. Acknowl-

edging the urgent need for support

and nance, IRENA is advancing the

Accelerated Partnership for Renew-

ables in Africa (APRA) initiative and

is preparing an investment forum fo-

cused on APRA’s member countries

later this year.

Global electricity

demand rising at

“fastest rate

in years”, says IEA

IEA Director Fatih Birol.

The agency says

electrication and heatwaves

are driving demand

THE ENERGY INDUSTRY TIMES - JULY-AUGUST 2024

The re-election of Ursula von der

Leyen as the President of the European

Commission looks set to continue the

European Union’s drive towards meet-

ing its clean energy goals while im-

proving industrial competitiveness.

Europe’s electricity sector welcomed

von der Leyen’s renewed mandate,

secured with 401 votes in favour.

“Von der Leyen set out a pragmatic,

yet ambitious agenda for the next ve

years to address the new challenge

landscape the EU is facing with geo-

political tensions, sharpened industrial

competition, on top of the impacts from

increasingly extreme weather,” said

Eurelectric’s Secretary General, Kris-

tian Ruby.

Eurelectric, the organisation repre-

senting the interests of the European

electricity industry, noted that com-

petitiveness and prosperity are “the

new buzzwords for this Commission”,

along with a renewed emphasis on de-

fence and energy security.

It also stated: “While missing from

her speech this morning, her political

guidelines recognise grid infrastruc-

ture as a key technology in need of

higher investments. This is a key aspect

for the power sector, which has been

very vocal on the need to speed up in-

vestments in grid infrastructure to the

tune of €67 billion of annual invest-

ments in distribution grid from 2025

to 2050.

“Infrastructure is one of the 4 ‘I’s

Eurelectric has advocated for prioriti-

sation in the new legislative mandate.

With the other I’s – implementation,

investment and industrial competitive-

ness – prominently featuring in von der

Leyen’s plan, it is safe to say our voice

has been heard.”

In particular, Eurelectric welcomed

von der Leyen’s announcement of a

new Clean Industrial Deal to keep

industry competitive while decarbon-

ising the economy.

“We support the call for implement-

ing the Green Deal and positively note

the reference to scaling-up investments

in low-carbon green infrastructure as

well as the creation of a Savings and

Investment Union to back this vision

with the necessary nancial means,”

said Ruby.

Ruby’s comments came as Eurelec-

tric also reported that generation of

clean electricity in Europe is setting

records. In the rst half of 2024, re-

newables made up more than 50 per

cent of all power generation in Europe

while nuclear provided a stable share

of 24 per cent. It said demand for

power, however, remains low due to

sluggish growth, deindustrialisation

and mild weather. Stimulating demand

for electricity will be paramount to

ensure continued investments in clean

generation.

Europe’s power generation is decar-

bonising at unprecedented pace. The

latest gures from Eurelectric’s Elec-

tricity Data Platform, ELDA, show that

74 per cent of electricity produced in

the EU in the rst half of 2024 came

from renewable and low-carbon en-

ergy sources,. This is a signicant in-

crease compared to the 68 per cent

share in 2023. The main reasons behind

this were an unprecedented inux of

renewables on the grid combined with

the stabilisation of the nuclear eet.

“The pace of change is impressive.

These gures document that the decar-

bonisation efforts of electricity com-

panies are years ahead of any other

sector,” said Ruby.

While the numbers on the supply side

are promising, the same cannot be said

for electricity demand. In the rst half

of 2023 power demand in the EU de-

creased by 5.1 per cent compared to

same period in 2022 and has continued

to remain low in 2024 – 4.8 per cent

lower than in H1 2022. This trend is

mainly due to industry relocating

abroad, warmer temperatures, energy

savings and slow economic growth.

decline in global power sector emis-

sions in 2024.

Some of the world’s major econo-

mies are registering particularly

strong increases in electricity con-

sumption. Demand in India is ex-

pected to surge by a massive 8 per

cent this year, driven by strong eco-

nomic activity and powerful heat-

waves. China is also set to see sig-

nicant demand growth of more

than 6 per cent, as a result of robust

activity in the services industries

and various industrial sectors, in-

cluding the manufacturing of clean

energy technologies.

After declining in 2023 amid mild

weather, electricity demand in the

US is forecast to rebound this year

by 3 per cent amid steady econom-

ic growth, rising demand for cooling

and an expanding data centre sector.

By contrast, the European Union

will see a more modest recovery in

electricity demand, with growth

forecast at 1.7 per cent, following

two consecutive years of contrac-

tion amid the impacts of the energy

crisis.

In many parts of the world, in-

creasing use of air-conditioning will

remain a signicant driver of elec-

tricity demand, says the IEA. Mul-

tiple regions faced intense heat-

waves in the rst half of 2024, which

elevated demand and put electricity

systems under strain, the report

nds.

“Growth in global electricity de-

mand this year and next is set to be

among the fastest in the past two

decades, highlighting the growing

role of electricity in our economies

as well as the impacts of severe

heatwaves,” said Keisuke Sadamo-

ri, IEA Director of Energy Markets

and Security. “It’s encouraging to

see clean energy’s share of the elec-

tricity mix continuing to rise, but

this needs to happen at a much

faster rate to meet international en-

ergy and climate goals. At the same

time, it’s crucial to expand and re-

inforce grids to provide citizens

with secure and reliable electricity

supply – and to implement higher

energy efciency standards to re-

duce the impacts of increased cool-

ing demand on power systems.”

With the rise of articial intelli-

gence (AI), the electricity demand

of data centres is drawing increased

attention, underscoring the need for

more reliable data and better stock-

taking measures. The report high-

lights the wide range of uncertain-

ties concerning the electricity

demand of data centres, including

the pace of deployment, the diverse

and expanding uses of AI, and the

potential for energy efciency im-

provements. Better collection of

electricity consumption data of the

data centre sector will be essential

to identify past developments cor-

rectly and to better understand fu-

ture trends.

Continued from Page 1

The four German transmission system

operators – 50Hertz, Amprion, Ten-

neT and TransnetBW – are launching

an innovation partnership with indus-

trial partners Siemens Energy, GE

Vernova and Hitachi Energy.

By developing a new generation of

multi-terminal HVDC technology,

Hitachi Energy, GE Vernova, and Sie-

mens Energy in partnership with the

four German TSOs, will create an

HVDC system in which multiple ter-

minals can connect with one another.

This multi-terminal grid will enable

electricity to travel where needed for

a highly efcient electron highway.

Commenting on the initiative, Tim

Meyerjürgens, COO of TenneT, said:

“With this partnership, we are joining

forces and shaping the infrastructure

of the future together. In the German

North Sea alone, 70 GW of offshore

wind energy are planned, which must

not only be brought ashore efciently,

but also distributed throughout the

country in the most area- and cost-

efcient way possible. At the same

time, the further integration of renew-

able energies is increasing the de-

mands on grid stability and security

of supply. We are therefore focusing

on new innovative technologies and

are realising a large-scale meshed di-

rect current grid for the rst time.

Together, we are paving the way for

the climate-neutral grid.”

DC switchgear with DC circuit

breakers are central to realising DC

multi-terminal hubs. They enable the

efcient utilisation and distribution of

very large amounts of wind power

from the North Sea coast by linking

direct current lines and exibly trans-

porting the energy to where it is need-

ed. For the rst time, this will create

HVDC networks that will improve the

utilisation of direct current lines and

at the same time support the existing

alternating current grid as the back-

bone of energy transmission.

The R&D contract also includes the

conceptualisation, design and devel-

opment of enabling technologies,

specically a new-to-market 525 kV

DC circuit breaker that will allow

these and other TSOs to trip and iso-

late faults in the HVDC system.

HVDC is the most efcient way to

transmit bulk power over long dis-

tances and is essential to integrating

renewable wind and solar energy into

the grid. With today’s available

HVDC Voltage Sourced Converter

(VSC) technology, HVDC systems

are point-to-point, bi-directional

power transmission systems that have

one HVDC converter station at each

end.

Last year has been called “another year

of highs” in the latest ‘Statistical Re-

view of World Energy’.

The 73rd annual edition of the Re-

view – published by the Energy Insti-

tute (EI) and co-authors KPMG and

Kearney – presented for the rst time

full global energy data for 2023. The

report, revealed ve key stories.

n Record global energy consumption,

with coal and oil pushing fossil fuels

and their emissions to record levels

n Global primary energy consumption

overall was at a record absolute high,

up 2 per cent on the previous year to

620 Exajoules (EJ).

n Global fossil fuel consumption

reached a record high, up 1.5 per cent

to 505 EJ (driven by coal up 1.6 per

cent, oil up 2 per cent to above 100

million barrels for rst time, while gas

was at). As a share of the overall mix

they were at 81.5 per cent, marginally

down from 82 per cent last year.

n Emissions from energy increased by

2 per cent, exceeding 40 gigatonnes of

for the rst time.

n Solar and wind pushed global renew-

able electricity generation to another

record level.

Commenting on the report, EI Presi-

dent Juliet Davenport OBE HonFEI

said: “In this year’s ‘Statistical Re-

view’, we report on another year of

highs in our energy-hungry world.

2023 saw record consumption of fossil

fuels and record emissions from en-

ergy, but also record generation of re-

newables, driven by increasingly com-

petitive wind and solar energy.”

EI Chief Executive Nick Wayth

CEng FEI, added: “The progress of the

transition is slow, but the big picture

masks diverse energy stories playing

out across different geographies. In

advanced economies we observe signs

of demand for fossil fuels peaking,

contrasting with economies in the

global south for whom economic de-

velopment and improvements in qual-

ity of life continue to drive fossil

growth.”

The Review found that growth econ-

omies struggle to curb fossil fuel

growth, although renewables acceler-

ate in China.

China’s full return post-Covid saw

fossil fuel use increase to a new high,

up 6 per cent, but as a share of pri-

mary energy it has been in decline since

2011, down to 81.6 per cent in 2023.

China added 55 per cent of all renew-

able generation additions in 2023, i.e.

more than the rest of the world com-

bined. It also overtook Europe on an

energy per capita basis for the rst time.

In India fossil fuel consumption was

up 8 per cent, accounting for almost all

demand growth, and stood at 89 per

cent share of overall consumption. For

the rst time, more coal was used in

India than Europe and North America

combined.

In Africa primary energy consump-

tion fell in 2023 by 0.5 per cent. Fossil

fuels accounted for 90 per cent of over-

all energy consumption, with renew-

ables (excluding hydro) at only 6 per

cent of electricity.

Simon Virley CB FEI, Vice Chair and

Head of Energy and Natural Resourc-

es, KPMG in the UK said: “In a year

where we have seen the contribution

of renewables reaching a new record

high, ever increasing global energy

demand means the share coming from

fossil fuels has remained virtually un-

changed at just over 80 per cent for yet

another year.

“With CO

emissions also reaching

record levels, it’s time to redouble our

efforts on reducing carbon emissions”.

Headline News

Emissions from energy sector hit record high as

fossil fuel use increases

Von der Leyen re-election will

continue clean energy drive

Sadamori says the clean

energy share is “encouraging”

The re-election of Ursula von der Leyen as President of the European Commission has

been welcomed by the electricity sector, as the bloc continues to face unprecedented

challenges. Junior Isles

German TSOs reach important milestone in path to

future high voltage transmission grid

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THE ENERGY INDUSTRY TIMES - JULY-AUGUST 2024

Europe News

Janet Wood

European Union targets for producing

and importing renewable hydrogen

fuel are unrealistic and unlikely to be

met, according to a new report from

the European Court of Auditors (ECA).

The ECA said the European Commis-

sion’s targets to produce up to 10 Mt

of renewable hydrogen by 2030 and

import another 10 Mt were based on

political will rather than analysis. An-

other 2030 target, to install 40 GW of

electrolysers to produced green hydro-

gen, was an idea suggested by a hydro-

gen lobby.

Currently projects at an advanced

stage would add less than 5 GW of

production capacity by 2030, although

about 50 GW is at an earlier stage, the

ECA said.

“EU industrial policy in the eld of

renewable hydrogen needs a realistic

vision,” said auditor Stef Blok. The

ECA wants the European Commis-

sion to better target scarce EU funds

and to produce an updated strategy

specifying which industries the EU

wants to retain.

A European Commission spokesper-

son said: “Our work is far from over.

We now need to accelerate the deploy-

ment and uptake of renewable and

low-carbon hydrogen in Europe.”

Meanwhile governments have re-

cently announced aid for hydrogen

projects as well as renewables. The

Spanish government announced €1.2

billion in grants for renewable hydro-

gen projects, with the Ministry for

Ecological Transition and the Demo-

graphic Challenge saying, “it is a step

forward in the aid granted so far for

this technology”.

The German Ministry for Economic

Affairs and Climate Action recently

announced €4.6 billion in state and

federal funding for 23 projects along

the hydrogen value chain. Recipients

included a 370 MW electrolyser, a 56

km hydrogen pipeline and a hydrogen

storage facility. In several cases, ‘clus-

ters’ have formed that cross state

boundaries, with pipeline, storage and

generation infrastructure and connec-

tions to industrial customers.

Other planned projects are intended

to enable pipeline-based hydrogen

imports to Germany in the future by

connecting pipelines from neighbour-

ing countries.

Economy and Climate Action Min-

ister Robert Habeck said: “An efcient

hydrogen infrastructure plays a key

role in enabling the decarbonisation of

industry and the energy sector,” add-

ing, “Hydrogen pipelines will be the

lifeblood of industrial centres.”

The German funding forms the bulk

of the €6.9 billion Hy2Infra funding

package for hydrogen infrastructure

named as Important Projects of Com-

mon European Interest (IPCEI). Hy-

2Infra was put forward by France,

Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Po-

land, Portugal and Slovakia and ap-

proved by the European Commission.

Meanwhile, a report commissioned

by E.On and Thüga has identied loca-

tions in Germany where electrolysers

can support the energy system. The

report by EWI says the electrolysers

could help avoid curtailments and re-

lieve pressure on all levels of the elec-

tricity grid.

A consortium led by Korea Hydro &

Nuclear Power has been named as the

preferred bidder to build up to four

nuclear plants in Czechia.

When nalised, the deal would see

two new 1000 MW plants built at Du-

kovany and two at Temelin, both exist-

ing sites. Sung Tae-yoon, Director of

national policy at the presidential of-

ce, said: “We thank the Czech Repub-

lic for selecting South Korea (as the

preferred bidder) in the largest invest-

ment project in (Czechia).”

Meanwhile, the European Commis-

sion has given the green light to add-

ing two more units at Romania’s Cer-

navoda nuclear site. Energy Minister

Sebastian Burduja said recently that

the new reactors are expected to

“make an essential contribution to

national and regional energy security

by producing clean, zero-emission

energy.” The Commission conrmed

that the project is in line with the ob-

jectives of the Euratom Treaty.

The nuclear resurgence may spread

to Italy, 35 years after the country shut

down its plants.

Environment and Energy Security

Minister Gilberto Pichetto Fratin said:

“To have a guarantee of continuity on

clean energy, we must insert a quota

of nuclear energy.” He plans to legis-

late to allow investment in small

modular reactors, which he said

should account for at least 11 per cent

of Italy’s electricity consumption by

2050.

The electricity grid operators of Esto-

nia, Latvia and Lithuania have in-

formed Russia and Belarus that they

will disconnect from the Moscow-

controlled post-Soviet power grid in

February 2025.

The 2001 BRELL agreement under

which the three grids – operated by

Lithuania’s Litgrid, Latvia’s AST and

Estonia’s Elering – are synchronised

with the Russian and Belarus grids,

expires in February 20205 and will not

be extended, they said. Instead, the

Baltic systems plan to synchronise

with the continental European system

on February 9th.

Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Po-

land agreed with the European Union’s

Executive Commission in 2019 to

coordinate on connecting the Baltic

nations to the EU’s power network by

the end of 2025. However, Russia’s

war in Ukraine led the Baltic countries

to speed up the project.

The Baltic countries already have

stopped buying electricity from Rus-

sia, but they remain physically con-

nected to its grid.

“We will disconnect and dismantle

the last physical connections with Rus-

sian and Belarusian grids,” Litgrid

CEO Rokas Masiulis said, calling the

move an “ambitious energy indepen-

dence project”. Estonia’s grid operator

Elering said: “Synchronisation with

Continental Europe Synchronous Area

will allow for independent, stable and

reliable frequency control of the Baltic

states electricity grids and will increase

energy security in the region.”

Germany’s measures to speed wind

power expansion are working, ac-

cording to the German Wind Energy

Association. It said there was a 19 per

cent slowdown in wind power expan-

sion in the rst half of 2024, but ap-

provals for future projects increased

by 32 per cent and processing times

fell. However, the group said the in-

crease was not enough to reach the

2030 target of 115 GW.

“To achieve the necessary expansion,

approvals must be turned into realised

projects,” the association said.

In the rst quarter of 2024, Germany

achieved a 58.4 per cent share of re-

newables, but its 2030 target is an 80

per cent share of renewable energies in

gross electricity consumption.

The need to manage uctuating sup-

plies has prompted Uniper to announce

plans to invest €250 million to bring

the Happurg pumped storage power

plant back into operation. The plant

in Bavaria has been shut down since

2011 but at 850 MWh, it is one of the

state’s, largest pumped storage plants

and Minister of Economic Affairs and

Energy, Hubert Aiwanger, has cam-

paigned for the restart.

“We need these large storage facili-

ties in order to be able to react exibly

to uctuations in the power grid and to

keep the grid stable,” said Aiwanger.

The restart is scheduled for 2028.

Janet Wood

The new Labour government wants the

UK to become a clean energy ‘super-

power’ as one of ve elements of a

‘mission led’ administration. Secretary

of State Ed Miliband announced a new

‘mission control’ to deliver that aim,

headed by Chris Stark, former Chief

Executive of the Climate Change

Committee (CCC), which is tasked

with checking progress towards the

UK’s net zero by 2050 goal.

A new programme of legislation

conrmed a bill to set up a publicly-

owned clean power company, Great

British Energy, as well as planning

reforms to speed up new infrastruc-

ture such as grid upgrades.

GB Energy will work with The

Crown Estate to bring forward off-

shore wind and other offshore tech-

nologies, and with Great British Nu-

clear on new nuclear plants. It is

intended to ‘crowd in’ investment,

with seed funding of around £8 million

over the next ve years and to help

grow the UK energy supply chain. It

is also expected to fund and grow local

community energy projects.

The government had already

launched an Onshore Wind Industry

Taskforce after removing a ban on on-

shore wind. RenewableUK’s Chief

Executive Dan McGrail, a member,

said: “This ambitious collaborative ef-

fort will involve industry, national and

devolved governments, businesses

and communities working together to

nd a new way forward. There is a clear

mandate for this, as government poll-

ing shows that 78 per cent of the pub-

lic support onshore wind.”

Energy UK Chief Executive, Emma

Pinchbeck highlighted the new gov-

ernment’s “welcome commitment to

hit the ground running with its clean

energy mission”. Stressing the impor-

tance of private investment, she said:

“The sense of purpose and ambitious

action articulated by the government

sends an important message to inves-

tors at a time of increased internation-

al competition for funding.”

The Labour government’s election

came as the CCC said in its annual

report that the country had credible

plans for only a third of the reductions

required to maintain a trajectory to net

zero carbon emissions by 2050.

It said the UK’s electricity sector

emissions have more than halved since

1990, but this was because of a coal

phase-out and the roll-out of renew-

ables. To meet the 2030 target annual

offshore wind installations would need

to increase three-fold, onshore wind

capacity must double and solar must

increase ve-fold

Energy Secretary Ed Miliband said:

“The good news is that this report con-

rms that a clean energy future is the

best way to make Britain energy inde-

pendent, cut bills, create good jobs, and

tackle the climate crisis.”

New UK government

makes clean

energy a mission

Two Czech and one Romanian

nuclear sites set to add units

Baltic states set February date

to synchronise with Europe grid

Germany’s plans for more wind power drives case for reopening storage

n Targets based on political will not analysis

n New grants invest billions in hydrogen production and transport

n Ban on onshore wind lifted

n ‘Great British Energy’ launched to step-up

renewables delivery

EU renewable hydrogen targets unrealistic,

says European Court of Auditors

onshore and offshore, and consider

what these possibilities mean for their

assets. Alongside sensitivities of de-

mand, commodity prices, levels of

renewables deployment, investors

must now consider levels of network

deployment as a sensitivity.

Grid deployment is location specic,

and as a result the impact these sensi-

tivities would have on assets is also

location-specic, in addition to the

asset technology, with renewables

seeing different impacts relative to

exible and baseload assets, whilst

assets in southern Scotland face dif-

ferent impacts compared to those lo-

cated in Northern England. According

to in-house modelling at Aurora En-

ergy Research, a battery located in the

South of England could lose almost

10 per cent of its average annual op-

erating prots between 2030-40 if we

see rapid deployment of networks

over the next few years by losing out

on opportunities to be called upon in

the balancing mechanism. The impact

on renewables is specic to their con-

nection agreements. For example,

transmission-connected renewable

generators are currently compensated

in the balancing mechanism if they

are turned down.

However, for distribution-connect-

ed renewables, non-rm connection

agreements have become increasingly

prevalent where, access to the grid

may be restricted dynamically de-

pending on the level of congestion the

Distribution Network Operator sees.

Typically, such connections can offer

forecasts of up to 100 per cent curtail-

ment, which makes them unappealing

to most investors and developers.

However, the landscape could change

quickly if barriers around grid de-

ployment are removed, and what ap-

peared to be risky projects could offer

attractive returns.

Finally, coming to baseload genera-

tion, combined cycle gas turbines

(CCGTs) are currently most often

called upon to replace renewables

energy generation that is curtailed due

to grid constraints. If congestion in

the grid is reduced by expanding the

network, these generators would have

fewer opportunities to be called upon

in the balancing mechanism, conse-

quently losing revenues. Analysis by

Aurora Energy Research also shows

rid connections’ and curtail-

ment was voted the most sig-

nicant barrier to delivering

European renewables targets by 2030

at Aurora’s Spring Forum in March

2024, with over a third of the ve hun-

dred delegates choosing this option.

Governments across Europe have

pushed for increasingly ambitious

targets for renewables, with a target of

up to 55 GW offshore wind in Great

Britain by 2030 set by the new Labour

government. But insufcient grid ca-

pacity threatens to derail this ambition

in two ways: new projects can’t secure

grid connections, and existing proj-

ects may face curtailment at times

when there isn’t sufcient grid capac-

ity to transport electricity from where

it is produced to consumers. In 2023,

over 4TWh of low-carbon generation

was curtailed, with a similar increase

in thermal generation, which cost the

consumers £1.25 billion.

Expanding grid capacity has histori-

cally been challenging due to local

planning and consenting regulations,

with particular opposition to the de-

velopment of pylons. For example, at

least 4 GW of offshore wind genera-

tion capacity will connect in East

Anglia over the next few years, which

necessitates the expansion of grid ca-

pacity in East Anglia to carry the

clean energy generated by these

projects to demand centres in London

and the Midlands.

However, the development of a vital

new 189 km line has been opposed by

local MPs in both the previous and the

current parliament. In the previous

parliament, the opposition came from

six Conservative MPs, including the

Environment Secretary at the time,

and in the current parliament, the

Green Party’s co-leader, MP for

Waveney Hills, Suffolk called for a

pause on the development to consider

other options earlier this month.

Similarly, in Aberdeenshire, farmers

held a tractor march in April to protest

the development of another vital line.

Finally, in Lincolnshire, residents

have opposed the development of a

140 km line citing concerns around

the impact on landscapes and the

tourism business. The Liberal Demo-

crats and Reform UK have both also

opposed the development of pylons

through the countryside.

Labour has hit the ground running

in terms of enabling renewables de-

ployment. It removed the blockers to

developing onshore wind in England,

granted planning consent to nearly

1.4 GW of new, large-scale solar PV

projects and founded Great British

Energy in partnership with The

Crown Estate to speed up the deploy-

ment of offshore wind, all in the rst

three weeks of being in ofce. How-

ever, the successful grid integration of

all of these projects hinges on the

availability of sufcient network ca-

pacity to ensure they can be connected

without signicant delays and don’t

face curtailment once operational.

Historically, given the challenges

around planning as well as the delays

in regulatory approvals, a signicant

expansion in network capacity was

believed to be unlikely.

For example, it typically takes

around 12 years from initial scoping

to the commissioning of a new

transmission line, with some lines

taking even longer due to local op-

position, which has to be assuaged

through several rounds of consulta-

tions. However, Labour has shown

the intention to simplify the planning

regime for renewables and housing

and could take steps to accelerate the

deployment of networks.

This signies a transformation in

the outlook for network deployment:

historically, the consensus in the in-

dustry was that we would struggle to

deploy adequate network capacity

and consequently see high levels of

grid congestion and curtailment. With

a Labour government keen to cut the

red tape around planning and other

regulatory barriers, we could scale up

our network capacity over the next

10-15 years. The ‘Beyond 2030’

publication from National Grid,

which moves a majority of the new

lines offshore along the eastern coast,

also suggests improved deliverability

over onshore lines since fewer local

authorities will need to be appeased.

From an investor’s perspective, this

opens up a multi-dimensional space

of possibilities in terms of network

deployment: instead of being able to

assume a low or moderate level of

network deployment, they must now

consider a range of scenarios from

low to high levels of deployment both

that a CCGT located in the South of

England could lose 10 per cent of its

average operating prots between

2030-40 in such a scenario that sees

high network deployment.

One further consideration is the

relative impact of the deployment of

onshore and offshore networks. Since

offshore networks do not face the

barrier of planning and consenting to

the same extent as onshore lines, a

possible scenario could see signicant

deployment of offshore HVDC lines

without the onshore reinforcements

to back them up. Depending on how

these lines are operated, they could

move congestion on days with high

wind generation from the Scottish

borders down to Humberside and

Lincolnshire – where most of the

offshore connections from Scotland

connect, and also where residents

opposed the development of an es-

sential line – possibly creating new

constrained boundaries.

The possibility of accelerated net-

work deployment is benecial to the

system by reducing costs for consum-

ers, as well as emissions – Aurora

nds that in 2030, 6 MtCO

e emis-

sions could be avoided if all the net-

work capacity necessary by 2030 is

deployed, amounting to over 20 per

cent of the total power sector emis-

sions in that year. However, this pos-

sibility also adds additional dimen-

sions to the space of probable

scenarios that investors must consider

– dimensions which could, in the

short- to mid-term, be almost as con-

sequential as the level of renewables

deployment.

Ultimately, the lack of progress in

scaling up grid capacity represents a

lack of political will. In the United

States, seven onshore HVDC lines

amounting to over 17 GW of total

capacity are currently under construc-

tion; India installed three onshore

HVDC lines with a capacity of 6 GW

each over a cumulative distance of

nearly 5000 km in the last decade.

National Grid’s plans to install four

offshore 2 GW HVDC lines between

Scotland and England by 2030 seem

far more achievable from a global

perspective.

Ashutosh Padelkar is Senior Associate

at Aurora Energy Research.

THE ENERGY INDUSTRY TIMES - JULY-AUGUST 2024

Energy Outlook

Britain’s Labour government has hit the ground running in terms of enabling renewables deployment. It has removed

the blockers to onshore wind in England, granted planning consent to nearly 1.4 GW of new, large-scale solar PV

projects and established Great British Energy. But Aurora Energy’s Ashutosh Padelkar asks whether it can deliver

the network capacity to ensure projects can be connected without signicant delays.

Can the new government

scale up network capacity?

Padelkar: Grid deployment

is location specic and the

impact these sensitivities

would have on assets is also

location-specic

raditionally recognised for its

emphasis on operational tech-

nology (OT) and ensuring the

availability of critical infrastructure,

the energy sector is now experienc-

ing a signicant transformation. The

proliferation of Internet of Things

(IoT) devices, sophisticated IT sys-

tems, and their integration with cor-

porate networks and cloud-based,

AI-driven applications has expand-

ed the attack surface and introduced

new vulnerabilities which have

driven cyber security up the agenda.

Faced with an ever-growing num-

ber of threats and attacks, the UK en-

ergy sector has become a prime tar-

get for malicious actors seeking to

disrupt critical infrastructure, steal

sensitive information, and compro-

mise national security.

Over recent years, the energy sector

has increasingly relied on data to

monitor efciency, deliver services,

and provide customers with better

visibility into their usage. This shift

means that security must now also

ensure condentiality and integrity,

alongside availability. The traditional

OT security measures are no longer

sufcient in this new reality. This

convergence of OT and IT systems

has blurred the lines between tradi-

tional operational security and cyber-

security, necessitating a holistic and

comprehensive approach to risk

management.

Recent data from IBM reveals the

alarming reality of cyber threats in

the UK energy sector, accounting for

nearly a quarter (24 per cent) of all

cyber incidents in the country. This

alarming gure underscores the ur-

gency for enhanced security mea-

sures and highlights the sector’s vul-

nerability compared to other

industries such as manufacturing and

nance.

The consequences of successful

cyber attacks on the energy sector

can be far-reaching and devastating.

Disruptions to energy supply can

lead to widespread chaos, economic

instability, and even threats to pub-

lic safety. In addition, data breaches

can result in the loss of condential

information, nancial losses, and

reputational damage. Given the crit-

ical role of the energy sector in

powering economies and societies,

the potential impact of cyber attacks

cannot be overstated.

So what are the main types of cy-

ber threats the energy industry faces

today?

Ransomware remains one of the

most signicant threats, with mal-

ware encrypting critical data and

payment being demanded for de-

cryption. This can cause huge levels

of disruption to operations and lead

to data loss if not swiftly mitigated.

Advanced Persistent Threats

(APTs), which persistently attempt to

breach networks to steal data or dam-

age systems can also cause huge

problems as can denial-of-service

(DoS) attacks. These attacks aim to

overwhelm systems with trafc, dis-

rupting operations and causing ser-

vice outages.

As in all industries, insider threats

are also a major problem that can

lead to compromised systems and

data within the energy sector. Here,

malicious actions or inadvertent mis-

takes made by insiders such as em-

ployees or contractors can lead to un-

authorised access or data breaches,

posing signicant risks to operational

integrity and condentiality. Man-in-

the-Middle (MitM) attacks are also

becoming more prevalent with hack-

ers intercepting and altering commu-

nications between parties to eaves-

drop or manipulate data.

The rise of AI and machine learn-

ing is also adding a new dimension

to these cyber security challenges.

Such technologies are being used in-

creasingly by cyber criminals to

launch more sophisticated and adap-

tive attacks. AI-powered malware

can autonomously identify vulnera-

bilities, evade detection mechanisms,

and adapt strategies in real-time,

making traditional cyber security de-

fences less effective. AI is also being

used to enhance the efciency and

precision of phishing and social engi-

neering attacks.

Add to this the challenge created

by vulnerabilities in OT infrastruc-

ture due to outdated systems and lack

of patch management.

All of these types of attacks and

vulnerabilities pose signicant risks

to the reliability, safety, and con-

dentiality of operations in the energy

sector, which is why now, more than

ever, organisations must give more

focus and priority to their cyber se-

curity strategy.

This involves not only preventing

and detecting attacks but also ensur-

ing strong recovery and resilience

strategies. Cyber security is one of

the biggest risks posed to energy

companies yet many don’t even in-

clude it in their risk management

processes.

Within this landscape, the imple-

mentation of advanced cyber securi-

ty strategies like Managed Detec-

tion and Response (MDR) and

Security Operations Centre (SOC)

are essential for proactive threat de-

tection and incident response.

MDR provides continuous monitor-

ing, threat detection, and incident

response. By integrating advanced

analytics and machine learning,

MDR services can quickly identify

and mitigate threats, reducing the

potential damage caused by ransom-

ware and other cyber attacks.

SOC enhances traditional SOC ca-

pabilities by incorporating automa-

tion and orchestration, improving re-

sponse times, and ensuring a more

proactive security posture.

Implementing foundational cyber-

security measures can also signi-

cantly enhance the protection of the

energy sector’s assets. These mea-

sures include robust asset manage-

ment and keeping an updated inven-

tory of all hardware and software

assets to ensure comprehensive visi-

bility and control. Deploying ad-

vanced anti-malware solutions and

enforcing strict access controls to

limit the spread of malicious soft-

ware is also essential as is secure

conguration and regularly updating

patch known vulnerabilities.

Maintaining regular backups will

help organisations to improve their

resilience too, ensuring they have the

ability to restore operations quickly

in the event of an attack, minimising

downtime and data loss. Developing

and regularly updating an incident

response plan to ensure quick and ef-

fective action when a cyber incident

occurs is also an essential measure.

Incident management is a critical

part of any cyber defence strategy –

breaches do and will happen – it’s

how effectively they are managed

and responded to that will determine

their impact on operations.

Cultivating an organisational cul-

ture, where cyber security is em-

braced and regarded as a collective

responsibility is also a key preven-

tion strategy. Encouraging a vigilant

mindset amongst employees, where

they are proactive in identifying and

reporting potential security lapses is

crucial. Regular cyber security train-

ing sessions should be implemented

as part of this to help staff stay

abreast of the evolving technological

landscape.

Businesses are also being encour-

aged to pay close attention to their

supply chain and the standards of

cyber security provision adopted

within it. With supply chain attacks

on the rise, the energy sector must

adopt rigorous security standards to

protect against these threats. This

involves vetting suppliers for cyber

security practices and ensuring that

all third-party interactions adhere to

stringent security protocols .

To help foster a more resilient ap-

proach to cyber security, the UK

government has been proactive in in-

troducing a variety of regulatory

frameworks and initiatives.

The UK’s National Cyber Security

Strategy outlines comprehensive

measures to enhance cyber security

across all sectors. Building resilience

within organisations plays a key part,

encouraging a culture of cyber secu-

rity awareness to be fostered

throughout businesses and ensuring

top-level oversight of security prac-

tices within all organisations.

The Network and Information Sys-

tems (NIS2) Directive legislation has

also been recently revised. This aims

to improve the cyber security posture

of critical infrastructure sectors, in-

cluding energy. It mandates stricter

security requirements for risk man-

agement, enhanced incident report-

ing protocols and supply chain secu-

rity. NIS2 is applicable to all energy

organisations – regardless of their

size – and means that businesses

must proactively assess and mitigate

risks, promptly report incidents, and

ensure the security of their entire

supply chain. The framework is set

to help organisations bolster resil-

ience against evolving cyber threats,

safeguarding vital energy infrastruc-

ture and operations.

With the very real possibility of

causing huge problems across soci-

ety, energy companies must start to

place more focus on the prevention

and management of cyber attacks.

Adopting guidelines and legislation,

integrating cyber security into organ-

isational culture and effective moni-

toring and management will all help

businesses to avoid devastating

breaches and disruptions. Cyber se-

curity should be treated with the

same seriousness as any other organ-

isational threat – including nancial

risks or health and safety. By doing

so, the industry can ensure the resil-

ience and continuity of critical ener-

gy infrastructure, safeguarding oper-

ations and public trust alike.

Temi Akinlade is vCISO Security Ad-

visor at Armor.

Faced with an ever-

increasing number of

threats and attacks,

the UK energy

sector has become

a prime target for

criminals seeking to

cause disruption to

critical infrastructure

and steal sensitive

information. Armor’s

Temi Akinlade

takes a closer look

at the cyber security

issues the energy

industry is facing,

and the measures

organisations should

have in place to

protect themselves.

Improving cyber resilience in

the energy sector

THE ENERGY INDUSTRY TIMES - JULY-AUGUST 2024

Industry Perspective

Akinlade: Cyber security

should be treated with the

same seriousness as any other

organisational threat

Reporters Without Borders’ Press

Freedom Index, and the World Justice

Project Rule of Law Index.

Clean energy investors may face

challenges similar to those in some of

the neighbouring European countries,

which the government is working to

address. According to a June 2024

report by Global Energy Monitor,

these challenges include improving

the project approval process, as ap-

provals for new solar projects can

take as much as ve years. The expan-

sion of rooftop solar installations is

also lagging due to a lack of aware-

ness, nancing limitations, or limited

incentives for homeowners and busi-

nesses. Additionally, the existing grid

infrastructure cannot support the in-

creasing amount of variable renew-

able energy sources. Another chal-

lenge is the low spot prices, which

were actually negative intraday for

three hours on 1 April 2024 due to

high renewable energy production

and weak demand. This made April

the cheapest month in the history of

the domestic electric power market.

Investment policy

Spain boasts abundant renewable en-

ergy resources, with some of the best

solar potential in Europe. A large part

of the country falls within the range of

1600 to 1950 kW/m

– 700 and below

is considered low, and over 1900 is

very high. The government has been

trying to motivate investment in clean

energy for many years through various

measures. These include decrees re-

garding access and connection to grid

networks in 2020 and the development

of procedures and requirements for

granting administrative authorisation

for closed distribution networks in

2023.

Additionally, Spain benets from

incentives from the EU as part of the

REPowerEU Plan, which aims to

save energy, diversify energy sup-

plies, and produce clean energy. In

October 2023, the EU updated its al-

location to Spain, providing €80 bil-

lion and €83 billion ($87.2 and $90.5

billion) in EU Recovery and Resil-

ience Facility grants and loans. Of

this, 40 per cent is dedicated to sup-

porting climate objectives, to be

pain has been a leader in renew-

able energy in Western Europe

for the past decade, sometimes

diverging from EU policies. It is a

strong clean energy investment juris-

diction with abundant renewable re-

sources, ambitious renewable energy

targets, and several incentives. Inves-

tors include a great variety of domes-

tic and foreign companies interested

in solar, wind, and other renewable

energy investments, as well as green

hydrogen opportunities.

Commitments

Spain has been a leader in renewable

energy and clean energy policies in

Europe for the past decade. While its

clean energy policies have generally

aligned with those of the EU, there

have been some areas where the coun-

try has taken a different approach or

exceeded EU requirements. For ex-

ample, Spain decided to scrap its Feed-

in Tariff programme in 2013 due to a

growing renewable energy tariff de-

cit. Instead, wind and solar energy

producers were required to sell on the

open market like other generators, re-

ceiving additional “fair” compensa-

tion based on their investment. Spain

also decided to retain its nuclear pow-

er plants, planning to keep them oper-

ating until the end of their life cycle.

Additionally, Spain’s Climate Change

and Energy Transition Law set a target

of 100 per cent renewable energy by

2050, a goal that goes beyond the EU’s

net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emis-

sions by 2050 target.

Spain has experienced a signicant

drop in GHG emissions over the past

decade, mainly due to a drastic change

in its electric power sector driven by

market forces such as high carbon

prices and the increasing competitive-

ness of renewable energy. The Euro-

pean Union’s binding Climate and

Energy policy for 2030 and Spain’s

Integrated National Energy and Cli-

mate Plans have also played a role in

setting targets and fostering emissions

reductions. To accelerate the transi-

tion to net zero emissions, Spain

should include more ambitious objec-

tives in the Plans, in line with the

targets adopted at the COP28 World

Climate Action Summit.

Energy prole

Spain boasts a strong clean energy

prole, which is expected to improve

further by 2050. Fossil fuels account-

ed for less than 30 per cent of electric

power generation, while renewables

and hydro made up over 51 per cent

and nuclear energy contributed 20 per

cent in 2023.

Wind power was the largest con-

tributor to clean energy generation,

excluding nuclear, in 2022, account-

ing for over 52 per cent. Solar and

hydro power made up 29 per cent and

19 per cent, respectively, based on

International Energy Agency data.

Over the past decade, Spain has

steadily reduced its reliance on coal to

under 2 per cent of the total mix in

2023, down from over a third. This

shift has helped drive the nation’s per

capita emissions down to about half

the global average and three times

below their 2005 peak, according to

energy think tank Ember. Spain cur-

rently aims to increase renewable en-

ergy to 78 per cent of electricity sup-

ply, including 81 GW in solar and 62

GW in wind power, and to reduce

emissions by 23 per cent from

1991 levels by 2030. The ultimate

goal is to reach 100 per cent renew-

able energy by 2050.

Investment environment

Spain currently has a strong clean

energy investment prole for both

domestic and overseas investors (see

table). The nation’s sovereign credit

rating had been sharply cut by agen-

cies to near non-investment grade

(i.e., junk status) between June 2010

and June 2012 due to the global -

nancial crisis of the late 2000s. How-

ever, it has since recovered, with

Moody’s rating it Baa1 (positive) –

upper medium grade – and S&P rating

it slightly higher at A (stable) – upper

medium grade.

Spain ranks in the top quintile in

terms of its innovation capability and

renewable energy country attractive-

ness in the EY Index. It is also a good

place to do business due to its lower

corruption, high press freedom, and

rule of law. It ranks in the top quintile

in Transparency International’s

Global Corruption Perceptions Index,

achieved by August 2026. Targeted

spending includes €12 billion ($13.1

billion) for building energy efciency

and €13.2 billion ($14.4 billion) for

sustainable mobility, including EV

charging infrastructure. The alloca-

tion for the green transition has been

raised to €67 billion ($73 billion)

from €27.6 billion ($30.1 billion).

Investors

The clean energy investment land-

scape in Spain is both deep and wide,

comprising strong domestic compa-

nies and a variety of non-Spanish

developers.

Those familiar with the renewables

sector will recognise the names of

local industry leaders such as multi-

national utilities Iberdrola and Ac-

ciona Energía, as well as energy

company Repsol. Other notable

players include EDP Renováveis,

owned by Portugal’s EDP, and Ende-

sa, controlled by Italy’ ENEL. There

are also many other non-Spanish in-

vestors, such as French utilities EDF

and Engie, Italian energy company

ENI, and Norwegian utility Statkraft.

Local and international private equity

rms are also active.

These companies and many others

are investing in solar and wind proj-

ects, but one area of particular inter-

est to many investors is green hydro-

gen production. In 2024, the

government announced a €2.3 billion

($2.5 billion) initiative to accelerate

the country’s energy transition, with

a focus on subsidising green energy

industries, including hydrogen pro-

duced from renewable sources.

Spain aims to become a major pro-

ducer of green hydrogen and recently

approved a €794 million ($865.4

million) subsidy package for large

green hydrogen projects. However,

the success of green hydrogen proj-

ects heavily relies on subsidies due

to the high costs associated with

production.

The inclusion of agriculture, infra-

structure, and rural areas in the green

energy transition plan is noteworthy,

but the lack of specic details makes

it difcult to assess the potential im-

pact fully. Nevertheless, Spain’s am-

bitious target of 11 GW of electrolys-

ers by 2030 aligns with global trends

and sets a high bar for other nations.

Prepared for The Energy Industry

Times by Joseph Jacobelli at ACTEi.

THE ENERGY INDUSTRY TIMES - JULY-AUGUST 2024

Energy Transition Investment Series

Spain is a strong

clean energy

investment

jurisdiction with

abundant renewable

resources and

ambitious renewable

energy targets.

This is the latest in

a series of country

analyses where

TEI Times looks

at the country’s

generation and

consumption proles,

policy, emissions

targets and ability to

attract the investment

needed to meet

government targets.

Spain: a European clean

energy champion

Spain currently has a strong clean energy investment prole for both domestic and overseas investors

Jacobelli: The clean energy

investment landscape in

Spain is both deep and wide

hile companies transition

toward energy sources that

emit less carbon and strive

to meet net zero targets, the industry

must adapt swiftly to remain com-

petitive and sustainable. A critical

component in this effort is more ac-

curate measurement and reporting of

emissions data.

Carbon emission management is

not new for the energy sector, as

companies have implemented report-

ing and reduction plans starting in the

1990s. Just as they have adopted As-

set Performance Management

(APM) software to help digitise oper-

ational excellence, many companies

are now seeking out software to do

the same when it comes to emissions

reporting and management. Recent

regulatory changes, however, are re-

shaping the landscape. For instance,

the US Securities and Exchange

Commission (SEC) passed a nal

rule mandating emissions reporting,

requiring companies to disclose their

environmental impact (currently

stayed pending legal challenges).

Three key factors converge to drive

urgency:

■ Soaring demand: Predictions indi-

cate a 50 per cent surge in electricity

demand over the next two decades.

Meeting this demand sustainably is

paramount.

■ Net zero goals: Energy companies

worldwide are committing to achiev-

ing net zero emissions within the

next 10 to 20 years. This ambitious

target necessitates radical shifts.

■ Regulatory imperatives: Mandato-

ry reporting requirements challenge

traditional manual processes. Manu-

al processes are unable to provide

fast and precise recommendations on

where to improve emission reduction

as well as the accuracy required for

reporting.

A critical component in this effort

is a more accurate measurement and

reporting of emissions data. Im-

proved data can help enhance the

effectiveness of net zero strategies,

maximise their impact, and track

progress to reaching targets. When

evaluating investments for emission

reduction efforts, companies con-

sider a multitude of factors for both

short-term protability and long-

term reliability implications. A stra-

tegic approach that aligns with busi-

ness impact becomes critical. But

it’s not just about making informed

decisions; it’s about implementing a

holistic solution to help you get

there. To make these decisions,

traditionally siloed functions – such

as sustainability, nance, and opera-

tions – must converge to fully ad-

dress the carbon challenge.

So how can advancements in tech-

nology unlock opportunities to help

reduce carbon footprints in the ener-

gy industry? Enter emissions man-

agement software using today’s tech-

nology of articial intelligence (AI)

and machine learning, powered by

digital twin technology. Employing

an innovative technology approach

to emissions management uses real-

time and historical data and helps es-

tablish more accurate baselines.

This approach enables organisa-

tions to gauge the impact of their de-

carbonisation efforts and learn where

to make investments aligned to their

overarching net zero strategy. Fur-

thermore, this also enables automa-

tion and data validation, which is

key to reducing cumbersome and

slow manual processes prone to er-

rors. Adopting a more robust carbon

emissions management solution may

provide companies relief for the ev-

er-changing regulatory requirements

and help to avoid penalties.

GE Vernova released a new emis-

sions management software solution

engineered to help companies ad-

dress the modern complexities of

managing their emissions. CERius™

is engineered to automate more ac-

curate greenhouse gas (GHG) data

collection and suggest recommenda-

tions to operationalise carbon reduc-

tion efforts. The software offers

abatement planning and what-if sce-

nario analysis, team collaboration,

and standardised reporting based on

GHG protocols. Implementing cross-

functional standards and processes

fuelled by CERius can help position

companies to address ever-evolving

regulatory compliance.

“One of the most effective ways to

drive emissions reduction in the en-

ergy and heavy industrial sectors is

to pursue digital transformation,”

said, Linda Rae, General Manager,

Power Generation & Oil and Gas,

Electrication Software, GE Verno-

va. “While many energy industrials

have been reporting emissions for

years, the process is labour intensive,

slow to surface insights, and based

upon generic formulas. The energy

transition demands agility, speed,

and accuracy of data collection –

CERius offers the delity of report-

ing emissions down to a specic as-

set, which can unleash actionable

insights to help improve scope 1, 2,

and 3 data accuracy and reporting, in

addition to measuring abatement

plans and optimise decarbonisation

investment strategies,” added Rae.

GE Vernova’s expertise extends

into developing CERius, which uses

AI modelling and digital twin tech-

nology as a baseline to help better

manage the complexities of emission

management. This solution can help

to manage emissions data, compli-

ance, nancial, and regulatory re-

porting, and strategic abatement

planning. Advanced analytics pro-

vide insights directly drawn from

historical, current plant, and enter-

prise-level processes.

There are two global energy lead-

ers currently piloting CERius to help

them manage their emissions reduc-

tion programmes.

Globeleq’s Azito Energie S.A.

(“Azito”), the largest gas power

plant in Cote D’Ivoire, will be one of

the rst power plants to deploy

CERius. The Azito power plant gen-

erates electricity using natural gas

from the country’s offshore gas

elds. Located in the village of Azito

in the district of Yopougon, approxi-

mately 6 km west of Abidjan, the fa-

cility uses combined cycle gas tur-

bines that generate 713 MW of

electricity. This equates to approxi-

mately 30 per cent of the country’s

base load generation.

Azito is a trailblazer in the digital

energy space in Africa, serving as an

example to other energy producers

on the benets of using digital solu-

tions. By deploying CERius, Azito

will be not just the rst company in

Africa, but a global early adopter to

access this technology. Using a cen-

tralised solution, this technology is

intended to enable better manage-

ment of their emissions data, compli-

ance reporting, improve processes,

and strategic planning, further con-

tributing to their net zero goals.

With greater access to better emis-

sions data, Azito will be empowered

to make more informed decisions on

how to reduce carbon emissions.

Gionata Visconti, Chief Operating

Ofcer of Globeleq, said: “As a

Group that has a mixed portfolio of

power plants across Africa and is

fully committed to the energy transi-

tion, it is vital that we are able to

monitor and report our emissions

from one of our key thermal plants

in a timely and accurate manner. At

the same time, we can use the infor-

mation from CERius to help reduce

and abate our emissions. Critically,

Azito is an essential part of Cote

d’Ivoire’s energy infrastructure, and

we will now be able to make impor-

tant planning decisions with better

and more insightful data.”

In 2018, Xcel Energy became the

rst utility in the United States to set

a net zero goal for 2050. This net

zero initiative includes a comprehen-

sive strategy to reduce greenhouse

gas emissions and promote sustain-

ability across its enterprise. For

years, Xcel Energy has measured

and reported emissions data. Xcel

Energy is a major regulated electric

and natural gas delivery company

that serves approximately 3.7 mil-

lion electricity customers and 2.1

million natural gas customers across

the Midwestern and Western United

States. Xcel Energy is participating

with GE Vernova’s CERius pilot

programme at three generation facil-

ities: Cherokee Generating Station,

Fort Lupton Power Station, and

Pawnee Generating Station.

“I’m eager to see the speed to in-

sights and precision in reporting

we’re expecting with this pilot pro-

gramme, which can help us more

quickly understand opportunities and

strategise for emissions reduction,”

said Jeff West, Senior Director, En-

vironmental Services, Xcel Energy

With the help of CERius, Xcel En-

ergy is working to achieve the fol-

lowing outcomes:

■ Increased greenhouse gas (GHG)

emissions visibility: Contextualised

views of emissions at the asset- and

site-level, offering deeper insights

into GHG emissions.

■ Decarbonisation planning & strat-

egy: Abatement planning and projec-

tions data, carbon reduction manage-

ment, and baseline strategy for

decarbonisation.

■ Automated Scope 1 data collec-

tion: Data aggregation automation

will be conrmed for three key

plants participating in the pilot.

■ Increased accuracy in Scope 1

data accounting: By validating cur-

rent emissions data collection

against CERius’ automated calcula-

tions, Xcel Energy aims to demon-

strate improved accuracy for moni-

tored assets, including natural gas

combined cycle and simple cycle

turbines. Historical data provided by

Xcel Energy will serve as the bench-

mark for validation.

■ Improved data collection process:

The pilot will validate that manual

data collection efforts have been no-

tably improved through automation.

Improved emissions data is a cor-

nerstone of the global effort to decar-

bonise. For heavy industrials and the

energy industry, precise tracking,

monitoring, and more accurately

measuring emissions data is indis-

pensable for effectively reaching car-

bon neutral commitments. By imple-

menting better efciencies, processes

and a more collaborative solution,

companies can make signicant

strides towards net zero. As these in-

dustries continue to play a critical

role in the global economy, their abil-

ity to leverage more accurate data for

decarbonisation will be key to ad-

dress climate uncertainty and aim to

provide more sustainable and avail-

able energy.

A centralised emissions manage-

ment solution can help kick-start or

enhance a company’s path toward

carbon neutrality, regardless of start

ing point. CERius is positioned to be

the carbon accounting system of re-

cord using validated emissions data

enabling energy companies with a

powerful tool engineered to make

the biggest impact – more accurate

measurements, manage to target, and

unlock meaningful investment strat-

egies. Implementing an efcient ap-

proach to emissions management –

through data automation, deeper

visibility, and precision into carbon

intensity – liberates valuable team

members to channel efforts into ef-

fective decarbonisation actions.

Better data is the foundation to

drive business results:

■ Operational efciency: Accurate

emissions data helps companies iden-

tify inefciencies and reduce carbon

emissions. Optimising operations not

only cuts emissions, but also lowers

costs.

■ Regulatory compliance: Precise

emissions data ensure compliance

with environmental regulations,

avoiding nes and legal challenges.

■ Investment decisions: Trustworthy

emissions data guide investments in

decarbonisation, prioritising effective

strategies.

■ Stakeholder engagement: Transpar-

ent emissions reporting builds trust

and accountability with stakeholders.

■ Driving innovation and competi-

tive advantage: Accurate emissions

data drive innovation and competi-

tive advantage. The data inform

technology development, inuence

brand reputation, and respond to

consumer demand for sustainable

products. Early adopters can benet

as low-carbon options become more

competitive.

Jacqueline Vinyard is Product Mar-

keting Director for GE Vernova’s

Power & Energy Resources Software

business.

The energy industry

faces the dual

challenge of meeting

surging demand

while signicantly

reducing greenhouse

gas emissions.

GE Vernova’s

Jacqueline Vinyard

explains how its

new emissions

management

software solution

can help companies

address the modern

complexities of

managing their

emissions.

A software approach to

managing emissions

THE ENERGY INDUSTRY TIMES - JULY-AUGUST 2024

Technology Focus

Vinyard: Precise tracking,

monitoring, and more

accurately measuring

emissions data is indispensable

for heavy industrials and the

energy industry

THE ENERGY INDUSTRY TIMES - JULY-AUGUST 2024

Final Word

ith a recent move out of

London, I’m experiencing

my own form of ‘greening’.

It seems there is no escaping the green

transition. Recently DNV presented

an outlook explaining how electrica-

tion using green energy sources is

transforming the energy market.

In its ‘Energy Transition Outlook:

New Power Systems’ DNV forecasts

the global energy future to 2050, with

‘new power systems’ dened as

electricity systems where most of the

power is generated from solar and

wind.

Last year, solar and wind supplied

as much as 63 per cent of Denmark’s

electricity and DNV anticipates that

what is happening in Denmark will

be repeated in most countries around

the world in the next 25 years. Ini-

tially driven by the need to curb

carbon emissions and more recently

by energy security electricity gener-

ated from renewables is now at the

heart of most government energy

plans. But electricity is not just green-

ing; it is also growing.

According to the report, electrica-

tion will result in a doubling of electric-

ity use by 2050 compared with today.

“Electricity is without doubt the en-

gine of the decarbonisation the world

needs,” said Remi Eriksen, Group

President and CEO, DNV. He noted,

however, that it is a “complicated and

challenging” engine.

“The grids need to expand vastly;

there must be a lot more storage to

cope with the variability of solar and

wind; demand must be managed more

exibly; and the success of all of this

depends on a deep digital transforma-

tion in the industry including invest-

ment in articial intelligence.”

But the world urgently needs to come

to terms with what ‘new power sys-

tems’ mean in reality. These systems

need careful planning and joined up

action by many actors – all facilitated

and supported by massive digitalisa-

tion. Crucially, the public also needs

to embrace the change and see why it

is in its interest.

This has led DNV to issue the de-

tailed report, which looks much

deeper into power systems than it has

in seven years of publishing its Energy

Transition Outlooks.

The forecast is what the company

sees as the most likely future, taking

into account current and expected

policies, and is built on a system dy-

namics model of energy use and trade

within and between 10 global regions.

Notably, DNV’s most likely future

does not result in net zero by 2050 or

achieve the Paris Agreement target of

limiting global temperature rise to

1.5°C. Instead, it predicts a rise of

2.2°C by the end of the century.

Electrication will be responsible for

more than 80 per cent of all emissions

reduction between now and 2050. By

mid-century, the report forecasts that

more than 90 per cent of all vehicles

on the road, globally, will be electric

and heat pumps will be ubiquitous.

This will result in a nearly doubling of

global electricity demand. In 2022,

electricity represented 20 per cent of

world nal energy use. By 2050 this

will be 37 per cent.

“When you consider how inefcient

fossil fuel systems are – with most of

the primary energy lost as heat – it

stands to reason that electricity will

supply most of the useful energy the

world will be using by mid-century,

said Ditlev Engel CEO for Energy

Systems at DNV.

At the same time, electricity will be

greening. According to DNV, last year

the share of wind and solar in electric-

ity generated was 13 per cent. By 2040,

those two sources will be responsible

for 50 per cent of electricity genera-

tion, moving rapidly to 70 per cent by

2050. In 2050, 82 per cent of all

electricity will come from renewable

sources – i.e. hydropower, geothermal,

and biomass in addition to solar and

wind.

The changes will play out differ-

ently across the world’s regions. For

example, wind and solar supplied 24

per cent of Europe’s power last year.

That share will climb to 50 per cent by

2033, and just over 75 per cent by 2050.

In the US, the share increases from 16

per cent in 2023 to 80 per cent in 2050.

Meanwhile, the share of wind and

solar in China grows from just 13 per

cent last year to 75 per cent in 2050.

“We are looking at a nine-fold

growth in wind and solar in the next

25 years. That in itself is mind blow-

ing,” said Engel. “But we need to

understand what that means to the

power system as a whole, and the

wider energy system.”

Notably, there is a massive growth

of solar and solar co-located with

storage, which together provide about

40 per cent of the world’s power by

2050. Around 30 per cent will come

from wind. Further, DNV’s forecast

shows the exibility market will

double over the next 25 years, with

utility-scale lithium-ion batteries ac-

counting for well over half of the re-

quired exibility.

In terms of technology, the other key

aspect of the new power system will

be the impact on grids.

“The mantra repeated at COP28, was

there will be no transition without

transmission,” said Engel. “We fore-

cast that global grid transmission and

distribution combined will double in

length from 100 million circuit kilo-

metres in 2022, to 200 million km in

2050… the same grid will grow 2.5

times in capacity globally.”

With the current backlog of projects

waiting for grid connections and the

time needed to permit and build new

lines, the report also takes a deep dive

into grid enhancing technologies such

as dynamic line rating and re-conduc-

toring, which hold the potential to lift

capacity on existing grids by anything

between 10 and 50 per cent.

The massive change is seeing gov-

ernments make the necessary policy

changes, especially Europe – not only

to drive down emissions by embracing

renewables and batteries, but also to

improve energy security while boost-

ing domestic industry.

The UK is a good example. In late

July, the newly elected Labour govern-

ment introduced Great British Energy

– a publicly-owned energy company,

designed to drive clean energy deploy-

ment, boost energy independence,

create jobs and “ensure UK taxpayers,

billpayers and communities reap the

benets of clean, secure, home-grown

energy”. Setting up Great British En-

ergy is one of government’s rst steps

for change.

In its rst big announcement, new

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said

British seabed owned by the Crown

Estate will be used to help build wind

farms in plans aimed at making the

UK more self reliant for energy.

The rm’s aim is increase renewable

energy projects, boosted by state fund-

ing, paid for by a windfall tax on oil

and gas giants. The government is

providing GB Energy with £8.3 billion

of funding but hopes to attract £60

billion of private investment.

The deal means the Crown Estate –

which manages a huge portfolio of

property and land and helps fund the

Royal Family – will lease the land on

which wind farms can be developed

and built.

Energy Secretary Ed Miliband said

GB Energy would eventually lead to

lower bills, but warned “it’s not going

to happen overnight”. As renewable

energy projects “start coming online

we’ll start to see the effect on bills. We

are going as fast as we can”, he told

BBC Breakfast.

The aim is to get wind farm projects

that could generate between 20 GW

and 30 GW of offshore power to lease

stage by 2030. The Crown Estate al-

ready had this as a target, but the

government has now conrmed it

would help. The government also

believes it can cut the time it takes to

get wind farms producing power by

half. It typically takes between 10 and

15 years to build offshore wind farms.

Labour also hopes that GB Energy,

a key manifesto pledge, will reduce

UK “over-reliance” on fossil fuel

markets, where soaring gas prices led

to spiralling electricity prices after

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Commenting on the announcement

of a new partnership between GB

Energy and The Crown Estate, Jess

Ralston, Head of Energy at the Energy

& Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU),

said: “GB Energy certainly has the

potential to deliver on making us more

energy independent and moves to help

with community engagement and

planning, which has been holding back

growth.”

Growth is always welcome. Almost

always. When that growth is green

the benets are myriad. But I hope

my move to a greener part of the

country brings a more relaxed life is

not one that leads to growth in my

waistline.

Greening and growing

Junior Isles

Cartoon by Jem Soar