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July-August 2024 • Volume 17 • No 5 • Published monthly • ISSN 1757-7365
THE ENERGY INDUSTRY TIMES is published by Man in Black Media • www.mibmedia.com • Editor-in-Chief: Junior Isles • For all enquiries email: enquiries@teitimes.com
Scaling network
capacity
Improving cyber
resilience
Britain’s Labour government has hit the
ground running in terms of enabling
renewables. But can it deliver much
needed network capacity? Page 12
The energy sector is now a prime
target for cyber criminals. So how can
organisations protect themselves?
Page 13
News In Brief
Von der Leyen re-election
will continue clean energy
drive
The re-election of Ursula von der
Leyen as President of the European
Commission looks set to continue
the EUs drive towards meeting its
clean energy goals, while improv-
ing industrial competitiveness.
Page 2
Wind power potential keeps
Brazil at front of pack
Brazil’s offshore wind potential can
be a pivotal player in the country’s
future energy landscape, according
to a new World Bank report.
Page 4
China demonstrates clean
energy leadership
Nearly two-thirds of the world’s
large wind and solar energy proj-
ects are in China, according to a
new study by the Global Energy
Monitor.
Page 5
EU renewable hydrogen
targets unrealistic
European Union targets for produc-
ing and importing renewable hy-
drogen fuel are unrealistic and un-
likely to be met, according to a new
report from the European Court of
Auditors.
Page 7
Energy Transition
Investment Series: Spain
Spain is a strong clean energy in-
vestment jurisdiction with abun-
dant renewable resources and ambi-
tious renewable energy targets.
Page 14
Technology Focus: A
software approach to
managing emissions
A new emissions management soft-
ware solution can help companies
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Growth in demand in 2024 and 2025 is forecast to be among the highest levels in the past two
decades a new IEA report nds, with solar PV alone expected to meet half of the increase.
COP28 renewables target at risk despite rapid growth
THE ENERGY INDUSTRY
TIMES
Final Word
There’s no escaping the
green transition, says
Junior Isles. Page 16
The world’s demand for electricity is
rising at its fastest rate in years, driven
by robust economic growth, intense
heatwaves and increasing uptake of
technologies that run on electricity
such as electric vehicles (EVs) and heat
pumps, according to a new report by
the International Energy Agency
(IEA). At the same time, renewables
continue their rapid rise, with solar PV
on course to set new records.
Global electricity demand is forecast
to grow by around 4 per cent in 2024,
up from 2.5 per cent in 2023, the IEAs
‘Electricity Mid-Year Update’ nds.
This would represent the highest an-
nual growth rate since 2007, exclud-
ing the exceptional rebounds seen in
the wake of the global nancial crisis
and the Covid-19 pandemic. The
strong increase in global electricity
consumption is set to continue into
2025, with growth around 4 per cent
again, according to the report.
Renewable sources of electricity are
also set to expand rapidly this year and
next, with their share of global elec-
tricity supply forecast to rise from 30
per cent in 2023 to 35 per cent in 2025.
The amount of electricity generated
by renewables worldwide in 2025 is
forecast to eclipse the amount gener-
ated by coal for the rst time. Solar PV
alone is expected to meet roughly half
of the growth in global electricity de-
mand over 2024 and 2025 – with solar
and wind combined meeting as much
as three-quarters of the growth.
Despite the sharp increases in re-
newables, global power generation
from coal is unlikely to decline this
year due to the strong growth in
demand, especially in China and In-
dia, according to the report. As a re-
sult, carbon dioxide (CO
2
) emissions
from the global power sector are pla-
teauing, with a slight increase in 2024
followed by a decline in 2025.
However, considerable uncertainties
remain: Chinese hydropower produc-
tion recovered strongly in the rst half
of 2024 from its 2023 low. If this up-
ward trend continues in the second
half of the year, it could curb coal red
power generation and result in a slight
Continued on Page 2
The ‘Renewable Energy Statistics
2024’ released by the International
Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)
last month shows that despite renew-
ables becoming the fastest growing
source of power, the world risks miss-
ing the tripling renewables target
pledged at COP28. To stay the course,
the world will now have to grow re-
newables capacity at a minimum 16.4
per cent rate annually through 2030.
The unprecedented 14 per cent in-
crease in renewables capacity during
2023 established a 10 per cent com-
pound annual growth rate (2017-
2023). Combined with the constant
decreasing additions of non-renew-
able capacity over the years, the trend
sees renewable energy on its way to
overtaking fossil fuels in global in-
stalled power capacity.
However, if last years 14 per cent
increase rate continues, the tripling
target of 11.2 TW in 2030 outlined by
IRENAs 1.5°C Scenario will fall 1.5
TW short, missing the target by 13.5
per cent. Furthermore, if the world
keeps the historic annual growth rate
of 10 per cent, it will only accumulate
7.5 TW of renewables capacity by
2030, missing the target by almost
one-third.
IRENA Director-General, Frances-
co La Camera, said, “Renewable en-
ergy has been increasingly outper-
forming fossil fuels, but it is not the
time to be complacent. Renewables
must grow at higher speed and scale.
Our new report sheds light on the di-
rection of travel; if we continue with
the current growth rate, we will only
face failure in reaching the tripling
renewables target agreed in the UAE
Consensus at COP28, consequently
risking the goals of the Paris Agree-
ment and 2030 Agenda for Sustain-
able Development.”
Dr. Sultan bin Ahmed Al Jaber, Min-
ister of Industry and Advanced Tech-
nology, COP28 President, warned:
“… while we are making progress, we
are off track to meet the global goal of
tripling renewable energy capacity to
11.2 TW by 2030. We need to increase
the pace and scale of development.
That means increasing collaboration
between governments, the private
sector, multilateral organisations, and
civil society.
“Governments need to set explicit
renewable energy targets, look at ac-
tions like accelerating permitting and
expanding grid connections, and im-
plement smart policies that push in-
dustries to step up and incentivise the
private sector to invest.
“Additionally, this moment pro-
vides a signicant opportunity to add
strong national energy targets in
NDCs [Nationally Determined Con-
tributions] to support the global goal
of keeping the 1.5°C target within
reach. Above all, we must change the
narrative that climate investment is a
burden to it being an unprecedented
opportunity for shared socio-econom-
ic development.”
In terms of power generation, the
latest data available for 2022 con-
rmed yet again the regional disparity
in renewables deployment. Asia holds
its position as leader in global renew-
able power generation with 3749 Ter-
awatt hours (TWh), followed for the
rst time by North America (1493
TWh). The most impressive jump oc-
curred in South America, where re-
newable power generation increased
by nearly 12 per cent to 940 TWh, due
to a hydropower recovery and a great-
er role of solar energy.
With a modest growth of 3.5 per
cent, Africa increased its renewable
power generation to 205 TWh in
2022, despite the continent’s tremen-
dous potential and immense need for
rapid, sustainable growth. Acknowl-
edging the urgent need for support
and nance, IRENA is advancing the
Accelerated Partnership for Renew-
ables in Africa (APRA) initiative and
is preparing an investment forum fo-
cused on APRAs member countries
later this year.
Global electricity
Global electricity
demand rising at
demand rising at
“fastest rate
“fastest rate
in years”, says IEA
in years”, says IEA
IEA Director Fatih Birol.
The agency says
electrication and heatwaves
are driving demand
THE ENERGY INDUSTRY TIMES - JULY-AUGUST 2024
2
The re-election of Ursula von der
Leyen as the President of the European
Commission looks set to continue the
European Union’s drive towards meet-
ing its clean energy goals while im-
proving industrial competitiveness.
Europe’s electricity sector welcomed
von der Leyen’s renewed mandate,
secured with 401 votes in favour.
“Von der Leyen set out a pragmatic,
yet ambitious agenda for the next ve
years to address the new challenge
landscape the EU is facing with geo-
political tensions, sharpened industrial
competition, on top of the impacts from
increasingly extreme weather,” said
Eurelectric’s Secretary General, Kris-
tian Ruby.
Eurelectric, the organisation repre-
senting the interests of the European
electricity industry, noted that com-
petitiveness and prosperity are “the
new buzzwords for this Commission”,
along with a renewed emphasis on de-
fence and energy security.
It also stated: “While missing from
her speech this morning, her political
guidelines recognise grid infrastruc-
ture as a key technology in need of
higher investments. This is a key aspect
for the power sector, which has been
very vocal on the need to speed up in-
vestments in grid infrastructure to the
tune of €67 billion of annual invest-
ments in distribution grid from 2025
to 2050.
“Infrastructure is one of the 4 ‘I’s
Eurelectric has advocated for prioriti-
sation in the new legislative mandate.
With the other I’s – implementation,
investment and industrial competitive-
ness – prominently featuring in von der
Leyen’s plan, it is safe to say our voice
has been heard.”
In particular, Eurelectric welcomed
von der Leyen’s announcement of a
new Clean Industrial Deal to keep
industry competitive while decarbon-
ising the economy.
“We support the call for implement-
ing the Green Deal and positively note
the reference to scaling-up investments
in low-carbon green infrastructure as
well as the creation of a Savings and
Investment Union to back this vision
with the necessary nancial means,”
said Ruby.
Ruby’s comments came as Eurelec-
tric also reported that generation of
clean electricity in Europe is setting
records. In the rst half of 2024, re-
newables made up more than 50 per
cent of all power generation in Europe
while nuclear provided a stable share
of 24 per cent. It said demand for
power, however, remains low due to
sluggish growth, deindustrialisation
and mild weather. Stimulating demand
for electricity will be paramount to
ensure continued investments in clean
generation.
Europe’s power generation is decar-
bonising at unprecedented pace. The
latest gures from Eurelectric’s Elec-
tricity Data Platform, ELDA, show that
74 per cent of electricity produced in
the EU in the rst half of 2024 came
from renewable and low-carbon en-
ergy sources,. This is a signicant in-
crease compared to the 68 per cent
share in 2023. The main reasons behind
this were an unprecedented inux of
renewables on the grid combined with
the stabilisation of the nuclear eet.
“The pace of change is impressive.
These gures document that the decar-
bonisation efforts of electricity com-
panies are years ahead of any other
sector,” said Ruby.
While the numbers on the supply side
are promising, the same cannot be said
for electricity demand. In the rst half
of 2023 power demand in the EU de-
creased by 5.1 per cent compared to
same period in 2022 and has continued
to remain low in 2024 – 4.8 per cent
lower than in H1 2022. This trend is
mainly due to industry relocating
abroad, warmer temperatures, energy
savings and slow economic growth.
decline in global power sector emis-
sions in 2024.
Some of the world’s major econo-
mies are registering particularly
strong increases in electricity con-
sumption. Demand in India is ex-
pected to surge by a massive 8 per
cent this year, driven by strong eco-
nomic activity and powerful heat-
waves. China is also set to see sig-
nicant demand growth of more
than 6 per cent, as a result of robust
activity in the services industries
and various industrial sectors, in-
cluding the manufacturing of clean
energy technologies.
After declining in 2023 amid mild
weather, electricity demand in the
US is forecast to rebound this year
by 3 per cent amid steady econom-
ic growth, rising demand for cooling
and an expanding data centre sector.
By contrast, the European Union
will see a more modest recovery in
electricity demand, with growth
forecast at 1.7 per cent, following
two consecutive years of contrac-
tion amid the impacts of the energy
crisis.
In many parts of the world, in-
creasing use of air-conditioning will
remain a signicant driver of elec-
tricity demand, says the IEA. Mul-
tiple regions faced intense heat-
waves in the rst half of 2024, which
elevated demand and put electricity
systems under strain, the report
nds.
“Growth in global electricity de-
mand this year and next is set to be
among the fastest in the past two
decades, highlighting the growing
role of electricity in our economies
as well as the impacts of severe
heatwaves,” said Keisuke Sadamo-
ri, IEA Director of Energy Markets
and Security. “It’s encouraging to
see clean energy’s share of the elec-
tricity mix continuing to rise, but
this needs to happen at a much
faster rate to meet international en-
ergy and climate goals. At the same
time, it’s crucial to expand and re-
inforce grids to provide citizens
with secure and reliable electricity
supply – and to implement higher
energy efciency standards to re-
duce the impacts of increased cool-
ing demand on power systems.”
With the rise of articial intelli-
gence (AI), the electricity demand
of data centres is drawing increased
attention, underscoring the need for
more reliable data and better stock-
taking measures. The report high-
lights the wide range of uncertain-
ties concerning the electricity
demand of data centres, including
the pace of deployment, the diverse
and expanding uses of AI, and the
potential for energy efciency im-
provements. Better collection of
electricity consumption data of the
data centre sector will be essential
to identify past developments cor-
rectly and to better understand fu-
ture trends.
Continued from Page 1
The four German transmission system
operators – 50Hertz, Amprion, Ten-
neT and TransnetBW – are launching
an innovation partnership with indus-
trial partners Siemens Energy, GE
Vernova and Hitachi Energy.
By developing a new generation of
multi-terminal HVDC technology,
Hitachi Energy, GE Vernova, and Sie-
mens Energy in partnership with the
four German TSOs, will create an
HVDC system in which multiple ter-
minals can connect with one another.
This multi-terminal grid will enable
electricity to travel where needed for
a highly efcient electron highway.
Commenting on the initiative, Tim
Meyerjürgens, COO of TenneT, said:
“With this partnership, we are joining
forces and shaping the infrastructure
of the future together. In the German
North Sea alone, 70 GW of offshore
wind energy are planned, which must
not only be brought ashore efciently,
but also distributed throughout the
country in the most area- and cost-
efcient way possible. At the same
time, the further integration of renew-
able energies is increasing the de-
mands on grid stability and security
of supply. We are therefore focusing
on new innovative technologies and
are realising a large-scale meshed di-
rect current grid for the rst time.
Together, we are paving the way for
the climate-neutral grid.”
DC switchgear with DC circuit
breakers are central to realising DC
multi-terminal hubs. They enable the
efcient utilisation and distribution of
very large amounts of wind power
from the North Sea coast by linking
direct current lines and exibly trans-
porting the energy to where it is need-
ed. For the rst time, this will create
HVDC networks that will improve the
utilisation of direct current lines and
at the same time support the existing
alternating current grid as the back-
bone of energy transmission.
The R&D contract also includes the
conceptualisation, design and devel-
opment of enabling technologies,
specically a new-to-market 525 kV
DC circuit breaker that will allow
these and other TSOs to trip and iso-
late faults in the HVDC system.
HVDC is the most efcient way to
transmit bulk power over long dis-
tances and is essential to integrating
renewable wind and solar energy into
the grid. With today’s available
HVDC Voltage Sourced Converter
(VSC) technology, HVDC systems
are point-to-point, bi-directional
power transmission systems that have
one HVDC converter station at each
end.
Last year has been called “another year
of highs” in the latest ‘Statistical Re-
view of World Energy’.
The 73rd annual edition of the Re-
view – published by the Energy Insti-
tute (EI) and co-authors KPMG and
Kearney – presented for the rst time
full global energy data for 2023. The
report, revealed ve key stories.
n Record global energy consumption,
with coal and oil pushing fossil fuels
and their emissions to record levels
n Global primary energy consumption
overall was at a record absolute high,
up 2 per cent on the previous year to
620 Exajoules (EJ).
n Global fossil fuel consumption
reached a record high, up 1.5 per cent
to 505 EJ (driven by coal up 1.6 per
cent, oil up 2 per cent to above 100
million barrels for rst time, while gas
was at). As a share of the overall mix
they were at 81.5 per cent, marginally
down from 82 per cent last year.
n Emissions from energy increased by
2 per cent, exceeding 40 gigatonnes of
CO
2
for the rst time.
n Solar and wind pushed global renew-
able electricity generation to another
record level.
Commenting on the report, EI Presi-
dent Juliet Davenport OBE HonFEI
said: “In this years ‘Statistical Re-
view’, we report on another year of
highs in our energy-hungry world.
2023 saw record consumption of fossil
fuels and record emissions from en-
ergy, but also record generation of re-
newables, driven by increasingly com-
petitive wind and solar energy.”
EI Chief Executive Nick Wayth
CEng FEI, added: “The progress of the
transition is slow, but the big picture
masks diverse energy stories playing
out across different geographies. In
advanced economies we observe signs
of demand for fossil fuels peaking,
contrasting with economies in the
global south for whom economic de-
velopment and improvements in qual-
ity of life continue to drive fossil
growth.”
The Review found that growth econ-
omies struggle to curb fossil fuel
growth, although renewables acceler-
ate in China.
China’s full return post-Covid saw
fossil fuel use increase to a new high,
up 6 per cent, but as a share of pri-
mary energy it has been in decline since
2011, down to 81.6 per cent in 2023.
China added 55 per cent of all renew-
able generation additions in 2023, i.e.
more than the rest of the world com-
bined. It also overtook Europe on an
energy per capita basis for the rst time.
In India fossil fuel consumption was
up 8 per cent, accounting for almost all
demand growth, and stood at 89 per
cent share of overall consumption. For
the rst time, more coal was used in
India than Europe and North America
combined.
In Africa primary energy consump-
tion fell in 2023 by 0.5 per cent. Fossil
fuels accounted for 90 per cent of over-
all energy consumption, with renew-
ables (excluding hydro) at only 6 per
cent of electricity.
Simon Virley CB FEI, Vice Chair and
Head of Energy and Natural Resourc-
es, KPMG in the UK said: “In a year
where we have seen the contribution
of renewables reaching a new record
high, ever increasing global energy
demand means the share coming from
fossil fuels has remained virtually un-
changed at just over 80 per cent for yet
another year.
“With CO
2
emissions also reaching
record levels, it’s time to redouble our
efforts on reducing carbon emissions”.
Headline News
Emissions from energy sector hit record high as
fossil fuel use increases
Von der Leyen re-election will
Von der Leyen re-election will
continue clean energy drive
continue clean energy drive
Sadamori says the clean
energy share is “encouraging”
The re-election of Ursula von der Leyen as President of the European Commission has
been welcomed by the electricity sector, as the bloc continues to face unprecedented
challenges. Junior Isles
German TSOs reach important milestone in path to
future high voltage transmission grid
THE ENERGY INDUSTRY TIMES - JULY-AUGUST 2024
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THE ENERGY INDUSTRY TIMES - JULY-AUGUST 2024
7
Europe News
Janet Wood
European Union targets for producing
and importing renewable hydrogen
fuel are unrealistic and unlikely to be
met, according to a new report from
the European Court of Auditors (ECA).
The ECA said the European Commis-
sion’s targets to produce up to 10 Mt
of renewable hydrogen by 2030 and
import another 10 Mt were based on
political will rather than analysis. An-
other 2030 target, to install 40 GW of
electrolysers to produced green hydro-
gen, was an idea suggested by a hydro-
gen lobby.
Currently projects at an advanced
stage would add less than 5 GW of
production capacity by 2030, although
about 50 GW is at an earlier stage, the
ECA said.
“EU industrial policy in the eld of
renewable hydrogen needs a realistic
vision,” said auditor Stef Blok. The
ECA wants the European Commis-
sion to better target scarce EU funds
and to produce an updated strategy
specifying which industries the EU
wants to retain.
A European Commission spokesper-
son said: “Our work is far from over.
We now need to accelerate the deploy-
ment and uptake of renewable and
low-carbon hydrogen in Europe.”
Meanwhile governments have re-
cently announced aid for hydrogen
projects as well as renewables. The
Spanish government announced €1.2
billion in grants for renewable hydro-
gen projects, with the Ministry for
Ecological Transition and the Demo-
graphic Challenge saying, “it is a step
forward in the aid granted so far for
this technology”.
The German Ministry for Economic
Affairs and Climate Action recently
announced €4.6 billion in state and
federal funding for 23 projects along
the hydrogen value chain. Recipients
included a 370 MW electrolyser, a 56
km hydrogen pipeline and a hydrogen
storage facility. In several cases, ‘clus-
ters’ have formed that cross state
boundaries, with pipeline, storage and
generation infrastructure and connec-
tions to industrial customers.
Other planned projects are intended
to enable pipeline-based hydrogen
imports to Germany in the future by
connecting pipelines from neighbour-
ing countries.
Economy and Climate Action Min-
ister Robert Habeck said: “An efcient
hydrogen infrastructure plays a key
role in enabling the decarbonisation of
industry and the energy sector,” add-
ing, “Hydrogen pipelines will be the
lifeblood of industrial centres.”
The German funding forms the bulk
of the €6.9 billion Hy2Infra funding
package for hydrogen infrastructure
named as Important Projects of Com-
mon European Interest (IPCEI). Hy-
2Infra was put forward by France,
Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Po-
land, Portugal and Slovakia and ap-
proved by the European Commission.
Meanwhile, a report commissioned
by E.On and Thüga has identied loca-
tions in Germany where electrolysers
can support the energy system. The
report by EWI says the electrolysers
could help avoid curtailments and re-
lieve pressure on all levels of the elec-
tricity grid.
A consortium led by Korea Hydro &
Nuclear Power has been named as the
preferred bidder to build up to four
nuclear plants in Czechia.
When nalised, the deal would see
two new 1000 MW plants built at Du-
kovany and two at Temelin, both exist-
ing sites. Sung Tae-yoon, Director of
national policy at the presidential of-
ce, said: “We thank the Czech Repub-
lic for selecting South Korea (as the
preferred bidder) in the largest invest-
ment project in (Czechia).”
Meanwhile, the European Commis-
sion has given the green light to add-
ing two more units at Romania’s Cer-
navoda nuclear site. Energy Minister
Sebastian Burduja said recently that
the new reactors are expected to
“make an essential contribution to
national and regional energy security
by producing clean, zero-emission
energy.” The Commission conrmed
that the project is in line with the ob-
jectives of the Euratom Treaty.
The nuclear resurgence may spread
to Italy, 35 years after the country shut
down its plants.
Environment and Energy Security
Minister Gilberto Pichetto Fratin said:
“To have a guarantee of continuity on
clean energy, we must insert a quota
of nuclear energy.” He plans to legis-
late to allow investment in small
modular reactors, which he said
should account for at least 11 per cent
of Italy’s electricity consumption by
2050.
The electricity grid operators of Esto-
nia, Latvia and Lithuania have in-
formed Russia and Belarus that they
will disconnect from the Moscow-
controlled post-Soviet power grid in
February 2025.
The 2001 BRELL agreement under
which the three grids – operated by
Lithuania’s Litgrid, Latvia’s AST and
Estonia’s Elering – are synchronised
with the Russian and Belarus grids,
expires in February 20205 and will not
be extended, they said. Instead, the
Baltic systems plan to synchronise
with the continental European system
on February 9th.
Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Po-
land agreed with the European Union’s
Executive Commission in 2019 to
coordinate on connecting the Baltic
nations to the EU’s power network by
the end of 2025. However, Russia’s
war in Ukraine led the Baltic countries
to speed up the project.
The Baltic countries already have
stopped buying electricity from Rus-
sia, but they remain physically con-
nected to its grid.
“We will disconnect and dismantle
the last physical connections with Rus-
sian and Belarusian grids,” Litgrid
CEO Rokas Masiulis said, calling the
move an “ambitious energy indepen-
dence project”. Estonia’s grid operator
Elering said: “Synchronisation with
Continental Europe Synchronous Area
will allow for independent, stable and
reliable frequency control of the Baltic
states electricity grids and will increase
energy security in the region.”
Germany’s measures to speed wind
power expansion are working, ac-
cording to the German Wind Energy
Association. It said there was a 19 per
cent slowdown in wind power expan-
sion in the rst half of 2024, but ap-
provals for future projects increased
by 32 per cent and processing times
fell. However, the group said the in-
crease was not enough to reach the
2030 target of 115 GW.
“To achieve the necessary expansion,
approvals must be turned into realised
projects,” the association said.
In the rst quarter of 2024, Germany
achieved a 58.4 per cent share of re-
newables, but its 2030 target is an 80
per cent share of renewable energies in
gross electricity consumption.
The need to manage uctuating sup-
plies has prompted Uniper to announce
plans to invest €250 million to bring
the Happurg pumped storage power
plant back into operation. The plant
in Bavaria has been shut down since
2011 but at 850 MWh, it is one of the
state’s, largest pumped storage plants
and Minister of Economic Affairs and
Energy, Hubert Aiwanger, has cam-
paigned for the restart.
“We need these large storage facili-
ties in order to be able to react exibly
to uctuations in the power grid and to
keep the grid stable,” said Aiwanger.
The restart is scheduled for 2028.
Janet Wood
The new Labour government wants the
UK to become a clean energy ‘super-
power as one of ve elements of a
‘mission led’ administration. Secretary
of State Ed Miliband announced a new
‘mission control’ to deliver that aim,
headed by Chris Stark, former Chief
Executive of the Climate Change
Committee (CCC), which is tasked
with checking progress towards the
UK’s net zero by 2050 goal.
A new programme of legislation
conrmed a bill to set up a publicly-
owned clean power company, Great
British Energy, as well as planning
reforms to speed up new infrastruc-
ture such as grid upgrades.
GB Energy will work with The
Crown Estate to bring forward off-
shore wind and other offshore tech-
nologies, and with Great British Nu-
clear on new nuclear plants. It is
intended to ‘crowd in’ investment,
with seed funding of around £8 million
over the next ve years and to help
grow the UK energy supply chain. It
is also expected to fund and grow local
community energy projects.
The government had already
launched an Onshore Wind Industry
Taskforce after removing a ban on on-
shore wind. RenewableUK’s Chief
Executive Dan McGrail, a member,
said: “This ambitious collaborative ef-
fort will involve industry, national and
devolved governments, businesses
and communities working together to
nd a new way forward. There is a clear
mandate for this, as government poll-
ing shows that 78 per cent of the pub-
lic support onshore wind.”
Energy UK Chief Executive, Emma
Pinchbeck highlighted the new gov-
ernment’s “welcome commitment to
hit the ground running with its clean
energy mission”. Stressing the impor-
tance of private investment, she said:
“The sense of purpose and ambitious
action articulated by the government
sends an important message to inves-
tors at a time of increased internation-
al competition for funding.”
The Labour government’s election
came as the CCC said in its annual
report that the country had credible
plans for only a third of the reductions
required to maintain a trajectory to net
zero carbon emissions by 2050.
It said the UK’s electricity sector
emissions have more than halved since
1990, but this was because of a coal
phase-out and the roll-out of renew-
ables. To meet the 2030 target annual
offshore wind installations would need
to increase three-fold, onshore wind
capacity must double and solar must
increase ve-fold
Energy Secretary Ed Miliband said:
“The good news is that this report con-
rms that a clean energy future is the
best way to make Britain energy inde-
pendent, cut bills, create good jobs, and
tackle the climate crisis.”
New UK government
New UK government
makes clean
makes clean
energy a mission
energy a mission
Two Czech and one Romanian
nuclear sites set to add units
Baltic states set February date
to synchronise with Europe grid
Germany’s plans for more wind power drives case for reopening storage
n Targets based on political will not analysis
n New grants invest billions in hydrogen production and transport
n Ban on onshore wind lifted
n ‘Great British Energy’ launched to step-up
renewables delivery
EU renewable hydrogen targets unrealistic,
says European Court of Auditors
onshore and offshore, and consider
what these possibilities mean for their
assets. Alongside sensitivities of de-
mand, commodity prices, levels of
renewables deployment, investors
must now consider levels of network
deployment as a sensitivity.
Grid deployment is location specic,
and as a result the impact these sensi-
tivities would have on assets is also
location-specic, in addition to the
asset technology, with renewables
seeing different impacts relative to
exible and baseload assets, whilst
assets in southern Scotland face dif-
ferent impacts compared to those lo-
cated in Northern England. According
to in-house modelling at Aurora En-
ergy Research, a battery located in the
South of England could lose almost
10 per cent of its average annual op-
erating prots between 2030-40 if we
see rapid deployment of networks
over the next few years by losing out
on opportunities to be called upon in
the balancing mechanism. The impact
on renewables is specic to their con-
nection agreements. For example,
transmission-connected renewable
generators are currently compensated
in the balancing mechanism if they
are turned down.
However, for distribution-connect-
ed renewables, non-rm connection
agreements have become increasingly
prevalent where, access to the grid
may be restricted dynamically de-
pending on the level of congestion the
Distribution Network Operator sees.
Typically, such connections can offer
forecasts of up to 100 per cent curtail-
ment, which makes them unappealing
to most investors and developers.
However, the landscape could change
quickly if barriers around grid de-
ployment are removed, and what ap-
peared to be risky projects could offer
attractive returns.
Finally, coming to baseload genera-
tion, combined cycle gas turbines
(CCGTs) are currently most often
called upon to replace renewables
energy generation that is curtailed due
to grid constraints. If congestion in
the grid is reduced by expanding the
network, these generators would have
fewer opportunities to be called upon
in the balancing mechanism, conse-
quently losing revenues. Analysis by
Aurora Energy Research also shows
G
rid connections’ and curtail-
ment was voted the most sig-
nicant barrier to delivering
European renewables targets by 2030
at Aurora’s Spring Forum in March
2024, with over a third of the ve hun-
dred delegates choosing this option.
Governments across Europe have
pushed for increasingly ambitious
targets for renewables, with a target of
up to 55 GW offshore wind in Great
Britain by 2030 set by the new Labour
government. But insufcient grid ca-
pacity threatens to derail this ambition
in two ways: new projects can’t secure
grid connections, and existing proj-
ects may face curtailment at times
when there isn’t sufcient grid capac-
ity to transport electricity from where
it is produced to consumers. In 2023,
over 4TWh of low-carbon generation
was curtailed, with a similar increase
in thermal generation, which cost the
consumers £1.25 billion.
Expanding grid capacity has histori-
cally been challenging due to local
planning and consenting regulations,
with particular opposition to the de-
velopment of pylons. For example, at
least 4 GW of offshore wind genera-
tion capacity will connect in East
Anglia over the next few years, which
necessitates the expansion of grid ca-
pacity in East Anglia to carry the
clean energy generated by these
projects to demand centres in London
and the Midlands.
However, the development of a vital
new 189 km line has been opposed by
local MPs in both the previous and the
current parliament. In the previous
parliament, the opposition came from
six Conservative MPs, including the
Environment Secretary at the time,
and in the current parliament, the
Green Party’s co-leader, MP for
Waveney Hills, Suffolk called for a
pause on the development to consider
other options earlier this month.
Similarly, in Aberdeenshire, farmers
held a tractor march in April to protest
the development of another vital line.
Finally, in Lincolnshire, residents
have opposed the development of a
140 km line citing concerns around
the impact on landscapes and the
tourism business. The Liberal Demo-
crats and Reform UK have both also
opposed the development of pylons
through the countryside.
Labour has hit the ground running
in terms of enabling renewables de-
ployment. It removed the blockers to
developing onshore wind in England,
granted planning consent to nearly
1.4 GW of new, large-scale solar PV
projects and founded Great British
Energy in partnership with The
Crown Estate to speed up the deploy-
ment of offshore wind, all in the rst
three weeks of being in ofce. How-
ever, the successful grid integration of
all of these projects hinges on the
availability of sufcient network ca-
pacity to ensure they can be connected
without signicant delays and don’t
face curtailment once operational.
Historically, given the challenges
around planning as well as the delays
in regulatory approvals, a signicant
expansion in network capacity was
believed to be unlikely.
For example, it typically takes
around 12 years from initial scoping
to the commissioning of a new
transmission line, with some lines
taking even longer due to local op-
position, which has to be assuaged
through several rounds of consulta-
tions. However, Labour has shown
the intention to simplify the planning
regime for renewables and housing
and could take steps to accelerate the
deployment of networks.
This signies a transformation in
the outlook for network deployment:
historically, the consensus in the in-
dustry was that we would struggle to
deploy adequate network capacity
and consequently see high levels of
grid congestion and curtailment. With
a Labour government keen to cut the
red tape around planning and other
regulatory barriers, we could scale up
our network capacity over the next
10-15 years. The ‘Beyond 2030’
publication from National Grid,
which moves a majority of the new
lines offshore along the eastern coast,
also suggests improved deliverability
over onshore lines since fewer local
authorities will need to be appeased.
From an investors perspective, this
opens up a multi-dimensional space
of possibilities in terms of network
deployment: instead of being able to
assume a low or moderate level of
network deployment, they must now
consider a range of scenarios from
low to high levels of deployment both
that a CCGT located in the South of
England could lose 10 per cent of its
average operating prots between
2030-40 in such a scenario that sees
high network deployment.
One further consideration is the
relative impact of the deployment of
onshore and offshore networks. Since
offshore networks do not face the
barrier of planning and consenting to
the same extent as onshore lines, a
possible scenario could see signicant
deployment of offshore HVDC lines
without the onshore reinforcements
to back them up. Depending on how
these lines are operated, they could
move congestion on days with high
wind generation from the Scottish
borders down to Humberside and
Lincolnshire where most of the
offshore connections from Scotland
connect, and also where residents
opposed the development of an es-
sential line possibly creating new
constrained boundaries.
The possibility of accelerated net-
work deployment is benecial to the
system by reducing costs for consum-
ers, as well as emissions Aurora
nds that in 2030, 6 MtCO
2
e emis-
sions could be avoided if all the net-
work capacity necessary by 2030 is
deployed, amounting to over 20 per
cent of the total power sector emis-
sions in that year. However, this pos-
sibility also adds additional dimen-
sions to the space of probable
scenarios that investors must consider
dimensions which could, in the
short- to mid-term, be almost as con-
sequential as the level of renewables
deployment.
Ultimately, the lack of progress in
scaling up grid capacity represents a
lack of political will. In the United
States, seven onshore HVDC lines
amounting to over 17 GW of total
capacity are currently under construc-
tion; India installed three onshore
HVDC lines with a capacity of 6 GW
each over a cumulative distance of
nearly 5000 km in the last decade.
National Grid’s plans to install four
offshore 2 GW HVDC lines between
Scotland and England by 2030 seem
far more achievable from a global
perspective.
Ashutosh Padelkar is Senior Associate
at Aurora Energy Research.
THE ENERGY INDUSTRY TIMES - JULY-AUGUST 2024
Energy Outlook
12
Britain’s Labour government has hit the ground running in terms of enabling renewables deployment. It has removed
the blockers to onshore wind in England, granted planning consent to nearly 1.4 GW of new, large-scale solar PV
projects and established Great British Energy. But Aurora Energy’s Ashutosh Padelkar asks whether it can deliver
the network capacity to ensure projects can be connected without signicant delays.
Can the new government
Can the new government
scale up network capacity?
scale up network capacity?
Padelkar: Grid deployment
is location specic and the
impact these sensitivities
would have on assets is also
location-specic
T
raditionally recognised for its
emphasis on operational tech-
nology (OT) and ensuring the
availability of critical infrastructure,
the energy sector is now experienc-
ing a signicant transformation. The
proliferation of Internet of Things
(IoT) devices, sophisticated IT sys-
tems, and their integration with cor-
porate networks and cloud-based,
AI-driven applications has expand-
ed the attack surface and introduced
new vulnerabilities which have
driven cyber security up the agenda.
Faced with an ever-growing num-
ber of threats and attacks, the UK en-
ergy sector has become a prime tar-
get for malicious actors seeking to
disrupt critical infrastructure, steal
sensitive information, and compro-
mise national security.
Over recent years, the energy sector
has increasingly relied on data to
monitor efciency, deliver services,
and provide customers with better
visibility into their usage. This shift
means that security must now also
ensure condentiality and integrity,
alongside availability. The traditional
OT security measures are no longer
sufcient in this new reality. This
convergence of OT and IT systems
has blurred the lines between tradi-
tional operational security and cyber-
security, necessitating a holistic and
comprehensive approach to risk
management.
Recent data from IBM reveals the
alarming reality of cyber threats in
the UK energy sector, accounting for
nearly a quarter (24 per cent) of all
cyber incidents in the country. This
alarming gure underscores the ur-
gency for enhanced security mea-
sures and highlights the sectors vul-
nerability compared to other
industries such as manufacturing and
nance.
The consequences of successful
cyber attacks on the energy sector
can be far-reaching and devastating.
Disruptions to energy supply can
lead to widespread chaos, economic
instability, and even threats to pub-
lic safety. In addition, data breaches
can result in the loss of condential
information, nancial losses, and
reputational damage. Given the crit-
ical role of the energy sector in
powering economies and societies,
the potential impact of cyber attacks
cannot be overstated.
So what are the main types of cy-
ber threats the energy industry faces
today?
Ransomware remains one of the
most signicant threats, with mal-
ware encrypting critical data and
payment being demanded for de-
cryption. This can cause huge levels
of disruption to operations and lead
to data loss if not swiftly mitigated.
Advanced Persistent Threats
(APTs), which persistently attempt to
breach networks to steal data or dam-
age systems can also cause huge
problems as can denial-of-service
(DoS) attacks. These attacks aim to
overwhelm systems with trafc, dis-
rupting operations and causing ser-
vice outages.
As in all industries, insider threats
are also a major problem that can
lead to compromised systems and
data within the energy sector. Here,
malicious actions or inadvertent mis-
takes made by insiders such as em-
ployees or contractors can lead to un-
authorised access or data breaches,
posing signicant risks to operational
integrity and condentiality. Man-in-
the-Middle (MitM) attacks are also
becoming more prevalent with hack-
ers intercepting and altering commu-
nications between parties to eaves-
drop or manipulate data.
The rise of AI and machine learn-
ing is also adding a new dimension
to these cyber security challenges.
Such technologies are being used in-
creasingly by cyber criminals to
launch more sophisticated and adap-
tive attacks. AI-powered malware
can autonomously identify vulnera-
bilities, evade detection mechanisms,
and adapt strategies in real-time,
making traditional cyber security de-
fences less effective. AI is also being
used to enhance the efciency and
precision of phishing and social engi-
neering attacks.
Add to this the challenge created
by vulnerabilities in OT infrastruc-
ture due to outdated systems and lack
of patch management.
All of these types of attacks and
vulnerabilities pose signicant risks
to the reliability, safety, and con-
dentiality of operations in the energy
sector, which is why now, more than
ever, organisations must give more
focus and priority to their cyber se-
curity strategy.
This involves not only preventing
and detecting attacks but also ensur-
ing strong recovery and resilience
strategies. Cyber security is one of
the biggest risks posed to energy
companies yet many don’t even in-
clude it in their risk management
processes.
Within this landscape, the imple-
mentation of advanced cyber securi-
ty strategies like Managed Detec-
tion and Response (MDR) and
Security Operations Centre (SOC)
are essential for proactive threat de-
tection and incident response.
MDR provides continuous monitor-
ing, threat detection, and incident
response. By integrating advanced
analytics and machine learning,
MDR services can quickly identify
and mitigate threats, reducing the
potential damage caused by ransom-
ware and other cyber attacks.
SOC enhances traditional SOC ca-
pabilities by incorporating automa-
tion and orchestration, improving re-
sponse times, and ensuring a more
proactive security posture.
Implementing foundational cyber-
security measures can also signi-
cantly enhance the protection of the
energy sectors assets. These mea-
sures include robust asset manage-
ment and keeping an updated inven-
tory of all hardware and software
assets to ensure comprehensive visi-
bility and control. Deploying ad-
vanced anti-malware solutions and
enforcing strict access controls to
limit the spread of malicious soft-
ware is also essential as is secure
conguration and regularly updating
patch known vulnerabilities.
Maintaining regular backups will
help organisations to improve their
resilience too, ensuring they have the
ability to restore operations quickly
in the event of an attack, minimising
downtime and data loss. Developing
and regularly updating an incident
response plan to ensure quick and ef-
fective action when a cyber incident
occurs is also an essential measure.
Incident management is a critical
part of any cyber defence strategy –
breaches do and will happen – it’s
how effectively they are managed
and responded to that will determine
their impact on operations.
Cultivating an organisational cul-
ture, where cyber security is em-
braced and regarded as a collective
responsibility is also a key preven-
tion strategy. Encouraging a vigilant
mindset amongst employees, where
they are proactive in identifying and
reporting potential security lapses is
crucial. Regular cyber security train-
ing sessions should be implemented
as part of this to help staff stay
abreast of the evolving technological
landscape.
Businesses are also being encour-
aged to pay close attention to their
supply chain and the standards of
cyber security provision adopted
within it. With supply chain attacks
on the rise, the energy sector must
adopt rigorous security standards to
protect against these threats. This
involves vetting suppliers for cyber
security practices and ensuring that
all third-party interactions adhere to
stringent security protocols .
To help foster a more resilient ap-
proach to cyber security, the UK
government has been proactive in in-
troducing a variety of regulatory
frameworks and initiatives.
The UK’s National Cyber Security
Strategy outlines comprehensive
measures to enhance cyber security
across all sectors. Building resilience
within organisations plays a key part,
encouraging a culture of cyber secu-
rity awareness to be fostered
throughout businesses and ensuring
top-level oversight of security prac-
tices within all organisations.
The Network and Information Sys-
tems (NIS2) Directive legislation has
also been recently revised. This aims
to improve the cyber security posture
of critical infrastructure sectors, in-
cluding energy. It mandates stricter
security requirements for risk man-
agement, enhanced incident report-
ing protocols and supply chain secu-
rity. NIS2 is applicable to all energy
organisations – regardless of their
size – and means that businesses
must proactively assess and mitigate
risks, promptly report incidents, and
ensure the security of their entire
supply chain. The framework is set
to help organisations bolster resil-
ience against evolving cyber threats,
safeguarding vital energy infrastruc-
ture and operations.
With the very real possibility of
causing huge problems across soci-
ety, energy companies must start to
place more focus on the prevention
and management of cyber attacks.
Adopting guidelines and legislation,
integrating cyber security into organ-
isational culture and effective moni-
toring and management will all help
businesses to avoid devastating
breaches and disruptions. Cyber se-
curity should be treated with the
same seriousness as any other organ-
isational threat including nancial
risks or health and safety. By doing
so, the industry can ensure the resil-
ience and continuity of critical ener-
gy infrastructure, safeguarding oper-
ations and public trust alike.
Temi Akinlade is vCISO Security Ad-
visor at Armor.
Faced with an ever-
increasing number of
threats and attacks,
the UK energy
sector has become
a prime target for
criminals seeking to
cause disruption to
critical infrastructure
and steal sensitive
information. Armor’s
Temi Akinlade
takes a closer look
at the cyber security
issues the energy
industry is facing,
and the measures
organisations should
have in place to
protect themselves.
Improving cyber resilience in
Improving cyber resilience in
the energy sector
the energy sector
THE ENERGY INDUSTRY TIMES - JULY-AUGUST 2024
13
Industry Perspective
Akinlade: Cyber security
should be treated with the
same seriousness as any other
organisational threat
Reporters Without Borders’ Press
Freedom Index, and the World Justice
Project Rule of Law Index.
Clean energy investors may face
challenges similar to those in some of
the neighbouring European countries,
which the government is working to
address. According to a June 2024
report by Global Energy Monitor,
these challenges include improving
the project approval process, as ap-
provals for new solar projects can
take as much as ve years. The expan-
sion of rooftop solar installations is
also lagging due to a lack of aware-
ness, nancing limitations, or limited
incentives for homeowners and busi-
nesses. Additionally, the existing grid
infrastructure cannot support the in-
creasing amount of variable renew-
able energy sources. Another chal-
lenge is the low spot prices, which
were actually negative intraday for
three hours on 1 April 2024 due to
high renewable energy production
and weak demand. This made April
the cheapest month in the history of
the domestic electric power market.
Investment policy
Spain boasts abundant renewable en-
ergy resources, with some of the best
solar potential in Europe. A large part
of the country falls within the range of
1600 to 1950 kW/m
2
– 700 and below
is considered low, and over 1900 is
very high. The government has been
trying to motivate investment in clean
energy for many years through various
measures. These include decrees re-
garding access and connection to grid
networks in 2020 and the development
of procedures and requirements for
granting administrative authorisation
for closed distribution networks in
2023.
Additionally, Spain benets from
incentives from the EU as part of the
REPowerEU Plan, which aims to
save energy, diversify energy sup-
plies, and produce clean energy. In
October 2023, the EU updated its al-
location to Spain, providing €80 bil-
lion and €83 billion ($87.2 and $90.5
billion) in EU Recovery and Resil-
ience Facility grants and loans. Of
this, 40 per cent is dedicated to sup-
porting climate objectives, to be
S
pain has been a leader in renew-
able energy in Western Europe
for the past decade, sometimes
diverging from EU policies. It is a
strong clean energy investment juris-
diction with abundant renewable re-
sources, ambitious renewable energy
targets, and several incentives. Inves-
tors include a great variety of domes-
tic and foreign companies interested
in solar, wind, and other renewable
energy investments, as well as green
hydrogen opportunities.
Commitments
Spain has been a leader in renewable
energy and clean energy policies in
Europe for the past decade. While its
clean energy policies have generally
aligned with those of the EU, there
have been some areas where the coun-
try has taken a different approach or
exceeded EU requirements. For ex-
ample, Spain decided to scrap its Feed-
in Tariff programme in 2013 due to a
growing renewable energy tariff de-
cit. Instead, wind and solar energy
producers were required to sell on the
open market like other generators, re-
ceiving additional “fair” compensa-
tion based on their investment. Spain
also decided to retain its nuclear pow-
er plants, planning to keep them oper-
ating until the end of their life cycle.
Additionally, Spain’s Climate Change
and Energy Transition Law set a target
of 100 per cent renewable energy by
2050, a goal that goes beyond the EU’s
net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emis-
sions by 2050 target.
Spain has experienced a signicant
drop in GHG emissions over the past
decade, mainly due to a drastic change
in its electric power sector driven by
market forces such as high carbon
prices and the increasing competitive-
ness of renewable energy. The Euro-
pean Union’s binding Climate and
Energy policy for 2030 and Spain’s
Integrated National Energy and Cli-
mate Plans have also played a role in
setting targets and fostering emissions
reductions. To accelerate the transi-
tion to net zero emissions, Spain
should include more ambitious objec-
tives in the Plans, in line with the
targets adopted at the COP28 World
Climate Action Summit.
Energy prole
Spain boasts a strong clean energy
prole, which is expected to improve
further by 2050. Fossil fuels account-
ed for less than 30 per cent of electric
power generation, while renewables
and hydro made up over 51 per cent
and nuclear energy contributed 20 per
cent in 2023.
Wind power was the largest con-
tributor to clean energy generation,
excluding nuclear, in 2022, account-
ing for over 52 per cent. Solar and
hydro power made up 29 per cent and
19 per cent, respectively, based on
International Energy Agency data.
Over the past decade, Spain has
steadily reduced its reliance on coal to
under 2 per cent of the total mix in
2023, down from over a third. This
shift has helped drive the nation’s per
capita emissions down to about half
the global average and three times
below their 2005 peak, according to
energy think tank Ember. Spain cur-
rently aims to increase renewable en-
ergy to 78 per cent of electricity sup-
ply, including 81 GW in solar and 62
GW in wind power, and to reduce
CO
2
emissions by 23 per cent from
1991 levels by 2030. The ultimate
goal is to reach 100 per cent renew-
able energy by 2050.
Investment environment
Spain currently has a strong clean
energy investment prole for both
domestic and overseas investors (see
table). The nation’s sovereign credit
rating had been sharply cut by agen-
cies to near non-investment grade
(i.e., junk status) between June 2010
and June 2012 due to the global -
nancial crisis of the late 2000s. How-
ever, it has since recovered, with
Moody’s rating it Baa1 (positive) –
upper medium grade – and S&P rating
it slightly higher at A (stable) – upper
medium grade.
Spain ranks in the top quintile in
terms of its innovation capability and
renewable energy country attractive-
ness in the EY Index. It is also a good
place to do business due to its lower
corruption, high press freedom, and
rule of law. It ranks in the top quintile
in Transparency International’s
Global Corruption Perceptions Index,
achieved by August 2026. Targeted
spending includes €12 billion ($13.1
billion) for building energy efciency
and €13.2 billion ($14.4 billion) for
sustainable mobility, including EV
charging infrastructure. The alloca-
tion for the green transition has been
raised to €67 billion ($73 billion)
from €27.6 billion ($30.1 billion).
Investors
The clean energy investment land-
scape in Spain is both deep and wide,
comprising strong domestic compa-
nies and a variety of non-Spanish
developers.
Those familiar with the renewables
sector will recognise the names of
local industry leaders such as multi-
national utilities Iberdrola and Ac-
ciona Energía, as well as energy
company Repsol. Other notable
players include EDP Renováveis,
owned by Portugal’s EDP, and Ende-
sa, controlled by Italy’ ENEL. There
are also many other non-Spanish in-
vestors, such as French utilities EDF
and Engie, Italian energy company
ENI, and Norwegian utility Statkraft.
Local and international private equity
rms are also active.
These companies and many others
are investing in solar and wind proj-
ects, but one area of particular inter-
est to many investors is green hydro-
gen production. In 2024, the
government announced a €2.3 billion
($2.5 billion) initiative to accelerate
the country’s energy transition, with
a focus on subsidising green energy
industries, including hydrogen pro-
duced from renewable sources.
Spain aims to become a major pro-
ducer of green hydrogen and recently
approved a €794 million ($865.4
million) subsidy package for large
green hydrogen projects. However,
the success of green hydrogen proj-
ects heavily relies on subsidies due
to the high costs associated with
production.
The inclusion of agriculture, infra-
structure, and rural areas in the green
energy transition plan is noteworthy,
but the lack of specic details makes
it difcult to assess the potential im-
pact fully. Nevertheless, Spain’s am-
bitious target of 11 GW of electrolys-
ers by 2030 aligns with global trends
and sets a high bar for other nations.
Prepared for The Energy Industry
Times by Joseph Jacobelli at ACTEi.
THE ENERGY INDUSTRY TIMES - JULY-AUGUST 2024
Energy Transition Investment Series
14
Spain is a strong
clean energy
investment
jurisdiction with
abundant renewable
resources and
ambitious renewable
energy targets.
This is the latest in
a series of country
analyses where
TEI Times looks
at the country’s
generation and
consumption proles,
policy, emissions
targets and ability to
attract the investment
needed to meet
government targets.
Spain: a European clean
energy champion
Spain currently has a strong clean energy investment prole for both domestic and overseas investors
Jacobelli: The clean energy
investment landscape in
Spain is both deep and wide
W
hile companies transition
toward energy sources that
emit less carbon and strive
to meet net zero targets, the industry
must adapt swiftly to remain com-
petitive and sustainable. A critical
component in this effort is more ac-
curate measurement and reporting of
emissions data.
Carbon emission management is
not new for the energy sector, as
companies have implemented report-
ing and reduction plans starting in the
1990s. Just as they have adopted As-
set Performance Management
(APM) software to help digitise oper-
ational excellence, many companies
are now seeking out software to do
the same when it comes to emissions
reporting and management. Recent
regulatory changes, however, are re-
shaping the landscape. For instance,
the US Securities and Exchange
Commission (SEC) passed a nal
rule mandating emissions reporting,
requiring companies to disclose their
environmental impact (currently
stayed pending legal challenges).
Three key factors converge to drive
urgency:
Soaring demand: Predictions indi-
cate a 50 per cent surge in electricity
demand over the next two decades.
Meeting this demand sustainably is
paramount.
Net zero goals: Energy companies
worldwide are committing to achiev-
ing net zero emissions within the
next 10 to 20 years. This ambitious
target necessitates radical shifts.
Regulatory imperatives: Mandato-
ry reporting requirements challenge
traditional manual processes. Manu-
al processes are unable to provide
fast and precise recommendations on
where to improve emission reduction
as well as the accuracy required for
reporting.
A critical component in this effort
is a more accurate measurement and
reporting of emissions data. Im-
proved data can help enhance the
effectiveness of net zero strategies,
maximise their impact, and track
progress to reaching targets. When
evaluating investments for emission
reduction efforts, companies con-
sider a multitude of factors for both
short-term protability and long-
term reliability implications. A stra-
tegic approach that aligns with busi-
ness impact becomes critical. But
it’s not just about making informed
decisions; it’s about implementing a
holistic solution to help you get
there. To make these decisions,
traditionally siloed functions – such
as sustainability, nance, and opera-
tions – must converge to fully ad-
dress the carbon challenge.
So how can advancements in tech-
nology unlock opportunities to help
reduce carbon footprints in the ener-
gy industry? Enter emissions man-
agement software using today’s tech-
nology of articial intelligence (AI)
and machine learning, powered by
digital twin technology. Employing
an innovative technology approach
to emissions management uses real-
time and historical data and helps es-
tablish more accurate baselines.
This approach enables organisa-
tions to gauge the impact of their de-
carbonisation efforts and learn where
to make investments aligned to their
overarching net zero strategy. Fur-
thermore, this also enables automa-
tion and data validation, which is
key to reducing cumbersome and
slow manual processes prone to er-
rors. Adopting a more robust carbon
emissions management solution may
provide companies relief for the ev-
er-changing regulatory requirements
and help to avoid penalties.
GE Vernova released a new emis-
sions management software solution
engineered to help companies ad-
dress the modern complexities of
managing their emissions. CERius™
is engineered to automate more ac-
curate greenhouse gas (GHG) data
collection and suggest recommenda-
tions to operationalise carbon reduc-
tion efforts. The software offers
abatement planning and what-if sce-
nario analysis, team collaboration,
and standardised reporting based on
GHG protocols. Implementing cross-
functional standards and processes
fuelled by CERius can help position
companies to address ever-evolving
regulatory compliance.
“One of the most effective ways to
drive emissions reduction in the en-
ergy and heavy industrial sectors is
to pursue digital transformation,”
said, Linda Rae, General Manager,
Power Generation & Oil and Gas,
Electrication Software, GE Verno-
va. “While many energy industrials
have been reporting emissions for
years, the process is labour intensive,
slow to surface insights, and based
upon generic formulas. The energy
transition demands agility, speed,
and accuracy of data collection –
CERius offers the delity of report-
ing emissions down to a specic as-
set, which can unleash actionable
insights to help improve scope 1, 2,
and 3 data accuracy and reporting, in
addition to measuring abatement
plans and optimise decarbonisation
investment strategies,” added Rae.
GE Vernova’s expertise extends
into developing CERius, which uses
AI modelling and digital twin tech-
nology as a baseline to help better
manage the complexities of emission
management. This solution can help
to manage emissions data, compli-
ance, nancial, and regulatory re-
porting, and strategic abatement
planning. Advanced analytics pro-
vide insights directly drawn from
historical, current plant, and enter-
prise-level processes.
There are two global energy lead-
ers currently piloting CERius to help
them manage their emissions reduc-
tion programmes.
Globeleq’s Azito Energie S.A.
(“Azito”), the largest gas power
plant in Cote D’Ivoire, will be one of
the rst power plants to deploy
CERius. The Azito power plant gen-
erates electricity using natural gas
from the country’s offshore gas
elds. Located in the village of Azito
in the district of Yopougon, approxi-
mately 6 km west of Abidjan, the fa-
cility uses combined cycle gas tur-
bines that generate 713 MW of
electricity. This equates to approxi-
mately 30 per cent of the country’s
base load generation.
Azito is a trailblazer in the digital
energy space in Africa, serving as an
example to other energy producers
on the benets of using digital solu-
tions. By deploying CERius, Azito
will be not just the rst company in
Africa, but a global early adopter to
access this technology. Using a cen-
tralised solution, this technology is
intended to enable better manage-
ment of their emissions data, compli-
ance reporting, improve processes,
and strategic planning, further con-
tributing to their net zero goals.
With greater access to better emis-
sions data, Azito will be empowered
to make more informed decisions on
how to reduce carbon emissions.
Gionata Visconti, Chief Operating
Ofcer of Globeleq, said: “As a
Group that has a mixed portfolio of
power plants across Africa and is
fully committed to the energy transi-
tion, it is vital that we are able to
monitor and report our emissions
from one of our key thermal plants
in a timely and accurate manner. At
the same time, we can use the infor-
mation from CERius to help reduce
and abate our emissions. Critically,
Azito is an essential part of Cote
d’Ivoire’s energy infrastructure, and
we will now be able to make impor-
tant planning decisions with better
and more insightful data.”
In 2018, Xcel Energy became the
rst utility in the United States to set
a net zero goal for 2050. This net
zero initiative includes a comprehen-
sive strategy to reduce greenhouse
gas emissions and promote sustain-
ability across its enterprise. For
years, Xcel Energy has measured
and reported emissions data. Xcel
Energy is a major regulated electric
and natural gas delivery company
that serves approximately 3.7 mil-
lion electricity customers and 2.1
million natural gas customers across
the Midwestern and Western United
States. Xcel Energy is participating
with GE Vernova’s CERius pilot
programme at three generation facil-
ities: Cherokee Generating Station,
Fort Lupton Power Station, and
Pawnee Generating Station.
“I’m eager to see the speed to in-
sights and precision in reporting
we’re expecting with this pilot pro-
gramme, which can help us more
quickly understand opportunities and
strategise for emissions reduction,”
said Jeff West, Senior Director, En-
vironmental Services, Xcel Energy
With the help of CERius, Xcel En-
ergy is working to achieve the fol-
lowing outcomes:
Increased greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions visibility: Contextualised
views of emissions at the asset- and
site-level, offering deeper insights
into GHG emissions.
Decarbonisation planning & strat-
egy: Abatement planning and projec-
tions data, carbon reduction manage-
ment, and baseline strategy for
decarbonisation.
Automated Scope 1 data collec-
tion: Data aggregation automation
will be conrmed for three key
plants participating in the pilot.
Increased accuracy in Scope 1
data accounting: By validating cur-
rent emissions data collection
against CERius’ automated calcula-
tions, Xcel Energy aims to demon-
strate improved accuracy for moni-
tored assets, including natural gas
combined cycle and simple cycle
turbines. Historical data provided by
Xcel Energy will serve as the bench-
mark for validation.
Improved data collection process:
The pilot will validate that manual
data collection efforts have been no-
tably improved through automation.
Improved emissions data is a cor-
nerstone of the global effort to decar-
bonise. For heavy industrials and the
energy industry, precise tracking,
monitoring, and more accurately
measuring emissions data is indis-
pensable for effectively reaching car-
bon neutral commitments. By imple-
menting better efciencies, processes
and a more collaborative solution,
companies can make signicant
strides towards net zero. As these in-
dustries continue to play a critical
role in the global economy, their abil-
ity to leverage more accurate data for
decarbonisation will be key to ad-
dress climate uncertainty and aim to
provide more sustainable and avail-
able energy.
A centralised emissions manage-
ment solution can help kick-start or
enhance a company’s path toward
carbon neutrality, regardless of start
-
ing point. CERius is positioned to be
the carbon accounting system of re-
cord using validated emissions data
enabling energy companies with a
powerful tool engineered to make
the biggest impact – more accurate
measurements, manage to target, and
unlock meaningful investment strat-
egies. Implementing an efcient ap-
proach to emissions management –
through data automation, deeper
visibility, and precision into carbon
intensity – liberates valuable team
members to channel efforts into ef-
fective decarbonisation actions.
Better data is the foundation to
drive business results:
Operational efciency: Accurate
emissions data helps companies iden-
tify inefciencies and reduce carbon
emissions. Optimising operations not
only cuts emissions, but also lowers
costs.
Regulatory compliance: Precise
emissions data ensure compliance
with environmental regulations,
avoiding nes and legal challenges.
Investment decisions: Trustworthy
emissions data guide investments in
decarbonisation, prioritising effective
strategies.
Stakeholder engagement: Transpar-
ent emissions reporting builds trust
and accountability with stakeholders.
Driving innovation and competi-
tive advantage: Accurate emissions
data drive innovation and competi-
tive advantage. The data inform
technology development, inuence
brand reputation, and respond to
consumer demand for sustainable
products. Early adopters can benet
as low-carbon options become more
competitive.
Jacqueline Vinyard is Product Mar-
keting Director for GE Vernova’s
Power & Energy Resources Software
business.
The energy industry
faces the dual
challenge of meeting
surging demand
while signicantly
reducing greenhouse
gas emissions.
GE Vernova’s
Jacqueline Vinyard
explains how its
new emissions
management
software solution
can help companies
address the modern
complexities of
managing their
emissions.
A software approach to
managing emissions
THE ENERGY INDUSTRY TIMES - JULY-AUGUST 2024
15
Technology Focus
Vinyard: Precise tracking,
monitoring, and more
accurately measuring
emissions data is indispensable
for heavy industrials and the
energy industry
THE ENERGY INDUSTRY TIMES - JULY-AUGUST 2024
16
Final Word
W
ith a recent move out of
London, I’m experiencing
my own form of ‘greening’.
It seems there is no escaping the green
transition. Recently DNV presented
an outlook explaining how electrica-
tion using green energy sources is
transforming the energy market.
In its ‘Energy Transition Outlook:
New Power Systems’ DNV forecasts
the global energy future to 2050, with
‘new power systems’ dened as
electricity systems where most of the
power is generated from solar and
wind.
Last year, solar and wind supplied
as much as 63 per cent of Denmark’s
electricity and DNV anticipates that
what is happening in Denmark will
be repeated in most countries around
the world in the next 25 years. Ini-
tially driven by the need to curb
carbon emissions and more recently
by energy security electricity gener-
ated from renewables is now at the
heart of most government energy
plans. But electricity is not just green-
ing; it is also growing.
According to the report, electrica-
tion will result in a doubling of electric-
ity use by 2050 compared with today.
“Electricity is without doubt the en-
gine of the decarbonisation the world
needs,” said Remi Eriksen, Group
President and CEO, DNV. He noted,
however, that it is a “complicated and
challenging” engine.
“The grids need to expand vastly;
there must be a lot more storage to
cope with the variability of solar and
wind; demand must be managed more
exibly; and the success of all of this
depends on a deep digital transforma-
tion in the industry including invest-
ment in articial intelligence.”
But the world urgently needs to come
to terms with what ‘new power sys-
tems’ mean in reality. These systems
need careful planning and joined up
action by many actors – all facilitated
and supported by massive digitalisa-
tion. Crucially, the public also needs
to embrace the change and see why it
is in its interest.
This has led DNV to issue the de-
tailed report, which looks much
deeper into power systems than it has
in seven years of publishing its Energy
Transition Outlooks.
The forecast is what the company
sees as the most likely future, taking
into account current and expected
policies, and is built on a system dy-
namics model of energy use and trade
within and between 10 global regions.
Notably, DNV’s most likely future
does not result in net zero by 2050 or
achieve the Paris Agreement target of
limiting global temperature rise to
1.5°C. Instead, it predicts a rise of
2.2°C by the end of the century.
Electrication will be responsible for
more than 80 per cent of all emissions
reduction between now and 2050. By
mid-century, the report forecasts that
more than 90 per cent of all vehicles
on the road, globally, will be electric
and heat pumps will be ubiquitous.
This will result in a nearly doubling of
global electricity demand. In 2022,
electricity represented 20 per cent of
world nal energy use. By 2050 this
will be 37 per cent.
“When you consider how inefcient
fossil fuel systems are – with most of
the primary energy lost as heat – it
stands to reason that electricity will
supply most of the useful energy the
world will be using by mid-century,
said Ditlev Engel CEO for Energy
Systems at DNV.
At the same time, electricity will be
greening. According to DNV, last year
the share of wind and solar in electric-
ity generated was 13 per cent. By 2040,
those two sources will be responsible
for 50 per cent of electricity genera-
tion, moving rapidly to 70 per cent by
2050. In 2050, 82 per cent of all
electricity will come from renewable
sources – i.e. hydropower, geothermal,
and biomass in addition to solar and
wind.
The changes will play out differ-
ently across the world’s regions. For
example, wind and solar supplied 24
per cent of Europe’s power last year.
That share will climb to 50 per cent by
2033, and just over 75 per cent by 2050.
In the US, the share increases from 16
per cent in 2023 to 80 per cent in 2050.
Meanwhile, the share of wind and
solar in China grows from just 13 per
cent last year to 75 per cent in 2050.
“We are looking at a nine-fold
growth in wind and solar in the next
25 years. That in itself is mind blow-
ing,” said Engel. “But we need to
understand what that means to the
power system as a whole, and the
wider energy system.”
Notably, there is a massive growth
of solar and solar co-located with
storage, which together provide about
40 per cent of the world’s power by
2050. Around 30 per cent will come
from wind. Further, DNV’s forecast
shows the exibility market will
double over the next 25 years, with
utility-scale lithium-ion batteries ac-
counting for well over half of the re-
quired exibility.
In terms of technology, the other key
aspect of the new power system will
be the impact on grids.
“The mantra repeated at COP28, was
there will be no transition without
transmission,” said Engel. “We fore-
cast that global grid transmission and
distribution combined will double in
length from 100 million circuit kilo-
metres in 2022, to 200 million km in
2050… the same grid will grow 2.5
times in capacity globally.”
With the current backlog of projects
waiting for grid connections and the
time needed to permit and build new
lines, the report also takes a deep dive
into grid enhancing technologies such
as dynamic line rating and re-conduc-
toring, which hold the potential to lift
capacity on existing grids by anything
between 10 and 50 per cent.
The massive change is seeing gov-
ernments make the necessary policy
changes, especially Europe – not only
to drive down emissions by embracing
renewables and batteries, but also to
improve energy security while boost-
ing domestic industry.
The UK is a good example. In late
July, the newly elected Labour govern-
ment introduced Great British Energy
– a publicly-owned energy company,
designed to drive clean energy deploy-
ment, boost energy independence,
create jobs and “ensure UK taxpayers,
billpayers and communities reap the
benets of clean, secure, home-grown
energy”. Setting up Great British En-
ergy is one of government’s rst steps
for change.
In its rst big announcement, new
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said
British seabed owned by the Crown
Estate will be used to help build wind
farms in plans aimed at making the
UK more self reliant for energy.
The rm’s aim is increase renewable
energy projects, boosted by state fund-
ing, paid for by a windfall tax on oil
and gas giants. The government is
providing GB Energy with £8.3 billion
of funding but hopes to attract £60
billion of private investment.
The deal means the Crown Estate –
which manages a huge portfolio of
property and land and helps fund the
Royal Family – will lease the land on
which wind farms can be developed
and built.
Energy Secretary Ed Miliband said
GB Energy would eventually lead to
lower bills, but warned “it’s not going
to happen overnight”. As renewable
energy projects “start coming online
we’ll start to see the effect on bills. We
are going as fast as we can”, he told
BBC Breakfast.
The aim is to get wind farm projects
that could generate between 20 GW
and 30 GW of offshore power to lease
stage by 2030. The Crown Estate al-
ready had this as a target, but the
government has now conrmed it
would help. The government also
believes it can cut the time it takes to
get wind farms producing power by
half. It typically takes between 10 and
15 years to build offshore wind farms.
Labour also hopes that GB Energy,
a key manifesto pledge, will reduce
UK “over-reliance” on fossil fuel
markets, where soaring gas prices led
to spiralling electricity prices after
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Commenting on the announcement
of a new partnership between GB
Energy and The Crown Estate, Jess
Ralston, Head of Energy at the Energy
& Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU),
said: “GB Energy certainly has the
potential to deliver on making us more
energy independent and moves to help
with community engagement and
planning, which has been holding back
growth.”
Growth is always welcome. Almost
always. When that growth is green
the benets are myriad. But I hope
my move to a greener part of the
country brings a more relaxed life is
not one that leads to growth in my
waistline.
Greening and growing
Junior Isles
Cartoon by Jem Soar