www.teitimes.com

November 2024 • Volume 17 • No 8 • Published monthly • ISSN 1757-7365

THE ENERGY INDUSTRY TIMES is published by Man in Black Media • www.mibmedia.com • Editor-in-Chief: Junior Isles • For all enquiries email: enquiries@teitimes.com

Boosting industry

competitiveness

Reasons to be cheerful

Industries that electrify their processes

and ex their demand will be the winners

in the transition.

Page 13

Raising the trillions of dollars

required for net zero by 2050 is a

huge challenge, but corporations

and investors have reasons for

optimism. Page 14

News In Brief

World is “playing with re”

warns UN chief

The world is “playing with re” is

the stark warning from the UN fol-

lowing the publication of its latest

‘Emissions Gap report’.

Page 2

Data centre operators boost

new nuclear businesses

Recent announcements by tech

companies around investment in

new nuclear power units, as they

rush to source low-carbon sources

for energy-hungry data centres,

have boosted the nuclear power

industry.

Page 4

Southeast Asia’s role in

global energy system will

grow strongly

Southeast Asia’s role in the global

energy system is set to grow

strongly over the next decade, ac-

cording to a new International

Energy Agency report, posing

challenges for the region’s energy

security and efforts to achieve na-

tional climate goals.

Page 5

Energy groups call for

pan-European action to

increase storage

Europe must implement a compre-

hensive Action Plan on Energy

Storage if it is to meet its energy

goals, the Energy Storage Coali-

tion has said. The group has called

on the European Commission to

take action.

Page 7

Azerbaijan opens up to

China on green energy

cooperation

Chinese energy company TBEA is

the latest to have initiated discus-

sions with Azerbaijan on possible

cooperation in renewable energy.

Page 8

Energy Outlook: Renewables

are still falling short

The International Energy Agency

has published ‘Renewables 2024:

an analysis and forecast to 2030’.

While renewables are expected to

grow signicantly, projected

growth is still expected to fall short

of the tripling of capacity goal

agreed at COP28 last year.

Page 15

Advertise

advertising@teitimes.com

subscriptions@teitimes.com

or call +44 (0)1933 392987

As the world moves towards the “Age of Electricity”, the International Energy Agency’s latest

World Energy Outlook highlights the risks to energy security and the looming threat of climate

change. Junior Isles

EU ministers back nuclear in green transition

THE ENERGY INDUSTRY

TIMES

Final Word

We are coming out of

the dark ages, says

Junior Isles. Page 16

Regional conicts and geopolitical

strains are highlighting the fragile state

of the global energy system, underlin-

ing the need for stronger policies and

greater investments to accelerate and

expand the transition to cleaner and

more secure technologies, according to

the International Energy Agency’s

(IEA) new ‘World Energy Outlook

2024’.

The latest edition of the Paris-based

annual agency’s agship publication

examines how shifting market trends,

evolving geopolitical uncertainties,

emerging technologies, advancing

clean energy transitions and growing

climate change impacts are changing

what it means to have secure energy

systems. In particular, the new re-

port underscores that today’s geopo-

litical tensions and fragmentation are

creating major risks both for energy

security and for global action on re-

ducing greenhouse gas emissions.

The report’s projections based on

today’s policy settings indicate that

the world is set to enter “a new energy

market context” in the coming years,

marked by continued geopolitical

hazards but also by relatively abun-

dant supply of multiple fuels and tech-

nologies. This includes an overhang

of oil and liqueed natural gas (LNG)

supply from the second half of the

2020s, alongside a large surplus of

manufacturing capacity for some key

clean energy technologies, notably so-

lar PV and batteries.

“In the second half of this decade,

the prospect of more ample – or even

surplus – supplies of oil and natural

gas, depending on how geopolitical

tensions evolve, would move us into a

very different energy world from the

one we have experienced in recent

years during the global energy crisis,”

said IEA Executive Director Fatih Bi-

rol. “It implies downward pressure on

prices, providing some relief for con-

sumers that have been hit hard by

price spikes. The breathing space

from fuel price pressures can provide

policymakers with room to focus on

stepping up investments in clean en-

ergy transitions and removing inef-

cient fossil fuel subsidies. This means

government policies and consumer

choices will have huge consequences

for the future of the energy sector and

for tackling climate change.”

Based on today’s policy settings, the

report nds that low-emissions sourc-

es are set to generate more than half of

the world’s electricity before 2030 –

and demand for all three fossil fuels

– coal, oil and gas – is still projected

to peak by the end of the decade.

Clean energy is entering the energy

system at an unprecedented rate, but

deployment is far from uniform across

technologies and markets.

In this context, the WEO-2024 also

shows that the outlines of a new, more

electried energy system are coming

into focus as global electricity demand

soars. Global electricity demand

growth is set to accelerate further in

the years ahead, adding the equivalent

of Japanese demand to global electric-

ity use each year in a scenario based

on today’s policy settings – and rising

even more quickly in scenarios that

Continued on Page 2

EU ministers have voiced their sup-

port for nuclear energy for the rst

time as part of the bloc’s mandate for

the upcoming UN climate summit.

Rifts between France and Germany

have held up the discussions over the

EU’s negotiating stance for the

COP29 gathering in Baku, Azerbai-

jan, but EU countries have now

agreed that they should call to accel-

erate “low-emissions technologies”

in line with a deal made at the previ-

ous COP28 summit that included

nuclear power.

A group of mostly eastern Europe-

an countries and France also pub-

lished a paper calling for Brussels to

recognise the “pivotal role” of nucle-

ar energy and ensure it is “duly inte-

grated” in new proposals for EU en-

ergy regulation.

The text agreed last month sets out

the EU’s negotiating mandate for the

UN climate summit and is intended

to establish the EU as one of the most

ambitious negotiating parties.

The Dutch and French govern-

ments also signed an agreement to

increase co-operation on nuclear en-

ergy and push for more “institutional

support” for nuclear power.

But several EU countries, includ-

ing Germany, Austria and Denmark,

fear that too much focus on nuclear

could draw funds away from renew-

able energy as a cheaper, cleaner and

faster way to cut the greenhouse gas

emissions behind climate change.

“We see that nuclear has been kept

alive by enormous amounts of public

money without having an economi-

cally viable business model, while at

the same time we see renewables

costs decrease enormously,” said Le-

onore Gewessler, Austria’s climate

minister. “Let’s put money where the

most cost-efcient solution is – and

that’s renewables.”

In a joint communiqué to the Euro-

pean Commission, 12 EU member

states said sluggish approval pro-

cesses must be addressed to advance

the transition to greener energy in

Europe.

“We need to accelerate the approv-

al procedures to ensure that we can

further stimulate the ongoing wave

of investment in solar and wind en-

ergy,” said German Economy and

Climate Action Ministry State Secre-

tary Sven Giegold.

Further, Giegold added that the Eu-

ropean energy market must be inter-

connected, “so that in the future ev-

eryone can benet from cheap solar

and affordable wind energy”. He

stated that investments in renewable

energy are the backbone of the plan

to end Europe’s energy dependency

on Russia following its invasion of

Ukraine.

Minsters also said that the Com-

mission should develop tools for

member states to better manage the

integration of volatile production

from wind and solar.

Geopolitical tensions drive need for

faster clean energy expansion, says IEA

THE ENERGY INDUSTRY TIMES - NOVEMBER 2024

Junior Isles

The world is “playing with re” is the

stark warning from the UN following

the publication of its latest ‘Emissions

Gap report’.

The UN Environment Programme

(UNEP) ‘Emissions Gap Report 2024:

No more hot air please’ nds that a

failure to increase ambition in Nation-

ally Determined Contributions (NDCs)

would put the world on course for a

temperature increase of 2.6-3.1°C over

the course of this century, bringing

“debilitating impacts to people, planet

and economies”.

UNEP said that nations must collec-

tively commit to cutting 42 per cent off

annual greenhouse gas emissions by

2030 and 57 per cent by 2035 in the

next round of NDCs – and back this up

with rapid action – or the Paris Agree-

ment’s 1.5°C goal will be gone within

a few years.

“The emissions gap is not an abstract

notion,” said ntnio Guterres, UN

Secretary-General, in a video message

on the report. “There is a direct link

between increasing emissions and in-

creasingly frequent and intense climate

disasters.

“Today’s Emissions Gap report is

clear we’re playing with re but there

can be no more playing for time. We’re

out of time. Closing the emissions gap

means closing the ambition gap, the

implementation gap, and the nance

gap. tarting at .”

Inger Andersen, Executive Director

of UNEP, added: “Climate crunch time

is here. We need global mobilisation

on a scale and pace never seen before

– starting right now, before the next

round of climate pledges – or the 1.5°C

goal will soon be dead, and ‘well below

2°C’ will take its place in the intensive

care unit. I urge every nation: no more

hot air, please. Use the upcoming

COP29 talks in Baku, Azerbaijan, to

increase action now, set the stage for

stronger NDCs, and then go all-out to

get on a . pathway.”

A separate report published by DNV

two weeks earlier said that emissions

are set to almost halve by 2050 but

said that this is a long way short of

requirements of the Paris Agreement.

DNV’s Energy Transition Outlook

forecasts the planet will warm by 2.2

°C by the end of the century. It also

said 2024 will go down as the year of

peak energy emission.

The peaking of emissions is largely

due to plunging costs of solar and bat-

teries which are accelerating the exit

of coal from the energy mix and stunt-

ing the growth of oil. Annual solar

installations increased 80 per cent last

year as it beat coal on cost in many

regions. Cheaper batteries, which

dropped 14 per cent in cost last year,

are also making around the clock de-

livery of solar power and electric ve-

hicles more affordable.

This trend is accelerating the uptake

of renewables beyond developed

countries. A new study conducted by

energy consultancy RMI revealed that

renewables in many emerging mar-

kets are now achieving lift-off. Solar

and wind power, measured both by

energy generated and as a share of

total electricity generation, is growing

faster in the global south than in the

global north.

ver the past ve years, renewable

energy generation has grown at a com-

pound annual rate of 23 per cent in the

global south, versus 11 per cent in the

world’s richest economies. RMI de-

nes the global south as frica, Latin

America, south and southeast Asia, and

excludes China and the major fossil

fuel exporters in Eurasia and the Mid-

dle East.

mportantly, these ndings compare

rates of growth, not total generation

capacity installed. While the global

south is not yet adding more renewable

power than rich economies in absolute

terms, R expects that trend to ip

by the end of this decade, largely due

to the drastic cost decline in renewable

technology.

meet national and global goals for

achieving net zero emissions.

“In previous World Energy Out-

looks, the IEA made it clear that the

future of the global energy system

is electric – and now it is visible to

everyone,” said r irol. “n energy

history, we’ve witnessed the ‘Age

of Coal’ and the ‘Age of Oil’ – and

we’re now moving at speed into the

‘Age of Electricity’, which will de-

ne the global energy system going

forward and increasingly be based

on clean sources of electricity.”

orryingly, the report nds that

despite the ongoing transformation,

the world is still off-track in the

battle against climate change.

Based on today’s policy settings,

global carbon dioxide emissions are

set to peak imminently, but the ab-

sence of a sharp decline after that

means the world is on course for a

rise of 2.4 °C in global average tem-

peratures by the end of the century,

well above the Paris Agreement

goal of limiting global warming to

1.5°C. The report underlines the

inextricable links between risks of

energy security and climate change.

In many areas of the world, extreme

weather events, intensied by de-

cades of high emissions, are already

posing profound challenges for the

secure and reliable operation of en-

ergy systems, including increas-

ingly severe heatwaves, droughts,

oods and storms.

To address the evolving energy

challenges faced by countries

around the world, the IEA is conven-

ing an International Summit on the

Future of Energy Security in the

second quarter of 2025. Hosted by

the U government in London, the

summit will assess the existing and

emerging risks facing the global

energy system, focusing on solu-

tions and opportunities.

Commenting on the aim of the

London ummit, r irol said

“Our core mandate is energy secu-

rity but the denition of energy

security, the threats and risks, are

evolving. When the IEA was formed

in 1974, oil security was its one and

only pre-occupation. Now, as seen

two and a half years ago, we went

through major challenges with

natural gas security. So traditional

risks in energy security will be one

topic.

“There are also some emerging

new challenges. The green energy

transition is moving very fast, which

means the clean energy supply

chain has to be secure. Critical min-

erals, which are very important for

the transition, need to be available

to all parties – governments and

companies around the world. Ex-

treme weather events are another

threat to energy security… So we

thank the UK government for its

cooperation in organising this inter-

national energy security summit

and look forward to seeing govern-

ments and companies coming to-

gether to understand these future

energy security challenges.”

Continued from Page 1

A ministerial pre-COP29 meeting has

concluded that overcoming the Na-

tionally Determined Contributions

(NDCs) implementation gap will be

critical for the next round of submis-

sions due early next year.

NDCs are at the heart of the Paris

Agreement, the legally binding inter-

national treaty on climate change ad-

opted at COP21. They outline and

communicate countries’ post-2020

climate actions and are to be submit-

ted every ve years to the UN

secretariat.

The next round, known as NDCs 3.0

are required by February 2025, and

are to be informed by the outcome of

the rst Global tocktake (GT),

which concluded in Dubai last year at

COP28.

The GST found that whilst progress

has been made towards the Paris

Agreement’s goals, these efforts are

insufcient to meet the long-term

goals set out.

Current NDCs are estimated to re-

duce global emissions by around 8 per

cent by 2030 from 2019 levels, far off

the 43 per cent needed according to

the Intergovernmental Panel on Cli-

mate Change (IPCC). They account

for around 49 per cent of global emis-

sions, however there is a clear imple-

mentation gap, which signicantly

hinders their efcacy.

NDCs 3.0 may be the last opportu-

nity to put the world on track with a

1.5°C trajectory. They need to be pro-

gressive and more ambitious than cur-

rent NDCs.

A key outcome of COP28 was ambi-

tion to triple renewable energy capac-

ity by 2030. The ‘Renewables 2024’

report, the E’s agship annual

publication on the sector, nds that

the world is set to add more than 5500

GW of new renewable energy capac-

ity between 2024 and 2030 – almost

three times the increase seen between

2017 and 2023.

Although impressive, recent re-

search by the International Institute

for Sustainable Development (IISD)

has revealed that G20 governments

are still spending three times as much

on fossil fuels as renewables.

To meet a global goal to triple renew-

able energy capacity by 2030, the

International Energy Agency esti-

mates that investment in the sector

needs to double from current levels of

around $1.1 trillion per year.

Assuming the relationship between

public and private investment remains

consistent, G20 governments may

need to double their nancial support

to facilitate this.

n the rst inventory of its kind, 

tracked the public nancial support

G20 governments delivered to renew-

able power, grids, and storage over

the past four years. In 2023, that re-

newable support was at least $168

billion, compared to an estimated

$535 billion in fossil fuel subsidies.

To close the investment gap for re-

newables, G20 governments can align

national targets for renewable deploy-

ment with the global tripling pledge,

backed by implementation plans, and

include those plans in the next round

of NDCs.

Current NDCs are estimated to re-

duce global emissions by around 8 per

cent by 2030 from 2019 levels, far off

the 43 per cent needed according to

the Intergovernmental Panel on Cli-

mate Change (IPCC).

European governments are looking at

fresh measures to reduce imports of

Russian fossil fuels to remove the

bloc’s dependency.

The news came as new data from the

Institute for Energy Economics and

Financial Analysis (IEEFA) showed

that gas imports from Russia increased

 per cent year-on-year in the rst half

of 2024, despite EU efforts to wean

itself off Russian fossil fuels.

France, along with nine other coun-

tries, including Austria and the Czech

Republic, circulated a paper ahead of

an EU energy ministers’ meeting in

October calling for the European Com-

mission to require suppliers of Russian

liqueed natural gas (LNG) to identify

themselves clearly when cargoes are

unloaded at EU ports and to improve

transparency on the volume of imports.

Some gas suppliers that booked ca-

pacity to import Russian LNG at EU

ports “are currently not properly iden-

tied”, the paper said.

French Energy Minister Agnès Pan-

nier-Runacher said that the “highest

level of transparency regarding ows

of LNG” was needed to “remove this

dependency”.

France, Spain and Belgium account-

ed for 87 per cent of Europe’s Russian

LNG imports during that period, with

imports to France more than doubling,

while those to Belgium decreased 16

per cent, the IEEFA said.

Belgium, which has long called for

EU sanctions on Russian LNG, said

in a separate paper that it was already

working on a mechanism to trace the

origin of LNG, “making it possible

to track and restrict Russian LNG

molecules if necessary”.

Sven Giegold, Germany’s state sec-

retary for economic affairs and climate

action, said that it was “worrying” to

see the uptick in Russian fuel imports

and that the commission should present

“a road map… to bring imports from

Russia in all fuels down to ero”.

The concern comes after the EU took

a rst step towards restricting Russian

LNG by placing sanctions on trans-

shipments – re-exports of Russian fuel

to third countries – from EU ports in

June.

Meanwhile, last month Ukraine’s

Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal con-

rmed yiv would not renew a transit

contract between Naftogaz, Ukraine’s

energy company, and Russia’s Gaz-

prom that expires at the end of this

year.

Mario Holzner, Director of the Vi-

enna Institute for International Eco-

nomic Studies, a think-tank, said: “Eu

rope will start the winter with its gas

storage [units] pretty much full, but a

cut-off by Ukraine would clearly create

more of a problem for the landlocked

countries of central Europe.”

EU countries increased gas con-

sumption by 3.3 per cent year-on-year

in September, despite a 13 per cent fall

in gas consumption in the electricity

generation sector, according to a report

by the Gas Exporting Countries Forum

(GECF).

n In late October, European gas pric-

es climbed to their highest level of the

year, as a production outage in key

supplier Norway exacerbated market

concerns over tensions in the Middle

East.

Headline News

EU looks to tighten controls on Russian fossil fuel imports

World is “playing with

re” warns UN chief

r irol the denition

o energy serity is

eoling

n World on course for a temperature increase of 2.6-3.1°C

n Nations must commit to cutting annual greenhouse gas emissions

42 per cent by 2030

Overcoming the NDC implementation

gap critical to COP29

THE ENERGY INDUSTRY TIMES - NOVEMBER 2024

www.teitimes.com

THE ENERGY INDUSTRY

TIMES

subscribe today

The Energy Industry Times is the only publication that

covers global news related to the power and energy sector

in a newspaper style and format whose

uniqueness is recognised by our readers.

As a paid subsciber you will gain full access

to our online news desk.

You will also no longer have to wait for the printed edition;

receive it by PDF “hot off the press” or download it online.

To subscribe, email subscriptions@teitimes.com or visit

www.teitimes.com

To guarantee receiving your

monthly copy of the award

winning newspaper, you need to

subscribe today

GTW full page.indd 1 17/11/16 12:22:16

THE ENERGY INDUSTRY TIMES - NOVEMBER 2024

Europe News

Janet Wood

Several EU countries have outlined

plans that will boost the outlook for

hydrogen use in the bloc.

Last month German regulators ap-

proved the construction of a nation-

wide network of hydrogen pipelines

just two and a half years after the

network was proposed. Some sections

are to be completed by 2032.

Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck

said: “Today, the hydrogen core net-

work has been decided. It is not yet

nished – but it will now be built.”

Total project costs are forecast at

€19.8 billion, which will be borne

largely by the private sector.

The Association of Transmission

System Operators said the new net-

work should be able to transport up to

 Th hours of energy annually –

the equivalent to a third of German

demand.

In the UK, meanwhile, National Gas

Transmission said it is working on a

project, which will support the Na-

tional Transmission System (NTS) to

transition to hydrogen. Alistair

Carvell, Hydrogen Innovation Engi-

neer at National Gas said recently:

“Our goal is to ensure that we are ready

for hydrogen, hydrogen blends and

carbon in Great Britain’s National

Transmission ystem.”

Meanwhile, the European Commis-

sion (E) has published the nal terms

and conditions for its second renew-

able hydrogen auction, introducing

new resilience requirements that are

aimed at “achieving security of supply

of essential goods and contribution to

Europe’s industrial leadership and

competitiveness.”

The €1.2-billion auction, set to start

in December, has a new resilience

requirement, which says projects

should “contribute to a diversied

supply chain and avoid building de-

pendency on a single third country

which may threaten the security of

supply of electrolysers”. roposed

projects must reach nancial close

within 2.5 years after signing the grant

agreement and begin operation within

ve years.

n ortugal the government has ap-

proved subsidies totalling €83 mil-

lion to December 2025 for 22 green

hydrogen production projects. The

projects, part of the hydrogen and re-

newables component of the Recovery

and Resilience lan (RR), “contrib-

ute to the goals of carbon neutrality in

Europe and promote the energy transi-

tion by encouraging companies to

produce hydrogen and other gases

from renewable sources”, said Laura

Dominguez, senior consultant at FI

Group.

The Ministry of the Environment

and Energy approved the 22 applica-

tions through its Environmental Fund.

Minister Maria da Graça Carvalho

said the decision is “creating the con-

ditions to put the country at the fore-

front of this sector”, and this invest-

ment represents “an important step

towards decarbonising the ortuguese

economy”.

The Norwegian government has pro-

posed to offer €3 billion in support for

its rst commercial oating offshore

wind tender, in the Vestavind F and

Ve st av in d B ar e as .

“Norway has an enormous potential

for oating offshore wind on its conti-

nental shelf, but because the technol-

ogy remains immature and costly, state

support is required to accelerate its

development,” said Norway’s inis-

ter of etroleum and Energy, Terje

Aasland.

The news comes as a UK report,

‘Floating Wind: Anchoring the next

generation offshore’, urges the govern-

ment to invest in ports and other oat-

ing wind infrastructure to gain a head-

start in the global oating wind energy

industry by 2050. It says that by 2050,

oating turbines could reach  G

in UK waters, and the cost of building

oating projects could fall by  per

cent by 2030 to under £100/MWh.

A recent report from RenewableUK

puts the current global pipeline of oat-

ing offshore wind projects at 266 GW,

compared with 244 GW last year. The

number of projects has increased glob-

ally during that time from 285 to 316,

while   of oating wind are

fully operational across 15 projects in

seven countries. Norway has the most

with 94 MW across three projects and

the UK is second with 78 MW in two

projects.

The Czech government has signalled

continuing interest in investing in

small modular nuclear reactors

(SMRs), following recent decisions

that will take forward large nuclear

units at the Dukovany site and Temelín.

The Ministry of Industry and Trade

() believes the R option will

modernise the Czech energy sector and

open up new opportunities for domes-

tic industry. The E Group wants to

cooperate with Rolls-Royce SMR in

the development and construction of

this technology and to enter a strategic

partnership with it.

rime inister etr iala said a stra-

tegic partnership between E and

Rolls-Royce SMR would “be a great

opportunity for Czech companies

with longstanding experience in the

nuclear industry”.

E is also investigating other sites

suitable for the construction of other

small modular reactors. Two named

sites, Tuimice and tmarovice, are

undergoing exploration and monitor-

ing work to see whether they are suit-

able for the location of a nuclear

power plant.

The UK government has meanwhile

picked four companies to proceed to

the next stage of negotiations for sup-

port to develop SMRs. Rolls-Royce,

Holtec Britain, GE Hitachi and West-

inghouse Electric, will be invited to

enter negotiations for government

support.

Meanwhile UK ministers have made

contingency arrangements to fund the

Sizewell C large-scale nuclear power

project in case a nal agreement with

potential private investors is delayed,

ofcials have admitted.  new .

billion subsidy would kick-in if there

is no agreement with private sector

investors until mid-2026.

Europe must implement a comprehen-

sive ction lan on Energy torage if

it is to meet its energy goals, the En-

ergy Storage Coalition has said. It has

called on the European Commission to

take action.

The Energy torage oalition –

formed by olarower Europe, The

European Association for Storage of

Energy, WindEurope and Break-

through Energy – made the call as the

EU enters a new ve-year term. t says

energy storage is also vital to address

the bloc’s critical challenges in

strengthening global competitiveness

and securing energy supplies.

Doriana Forleo, Executive Director

at the Energy Storage Coalition said:

“The success of the energy transition

depends on energy storage and renew-

ables working together. The reform of

the Electricity Market Design is a great

step forward, but we need clear regula-

tory guidance and targeted incentives

to unlock the full potential of energy

storage across the EU.”

The call comes as the UK govern-

ment announced plans for a new sup-

port regime for long duration energy

storage. Several technologies includ-

ing pumped hydro and newer tech-

nologies such as compressed air, have

been slow to roll-out because of their

high capital cost. The proposed ‘cap

and oor’ scheme, based on a similar

regime used to bring forward inter-

connectors, would give chosen proj-

ects a guaranteed return underwritten

by customers, but limit prot from

peaking prices.

Janet Wood

The UK government has tasked the

country’s new National Energy Sys-

tem Operator (NESO) to set out a stra-

tegic spatial energy plan (E), indi-

cating where new energy assets will be

built, to help speed up the transition to

clean power and provide long-term

certainty to investors. The rst iteration

of the E will be published in .

The E is part of the new Labour

government’s so-called ‘clean energy

mission’. The government has set a

2030 target to run the electricity system

using clean energy and recently the

country closed its last coal red power

station, but the 2030 deadline remains

a challenge.

lice elahunty, resident of U

electricity transmission National

Grid, said there was an “awful lot

more to do” to meet the ambition. “

think it’s an incredibly stretching tar-

get,” she said. “f it went perfectly

along current regimes, it wouldn’t get

there. So, it needs to go perfectly along

reformed regimes.”

Ed Miliband, Energy Secretary, has

taken steps to support clean energy

developers, including approving large

solar farms and increasing the budget

for offshore wind subsidy support, and

pledged to remove barriers to building

clean energy infrastructure.

Reforms to the network regime have

begun and recently electricity net-

work operators have removed 10 GW

of so-called “ombie” projects in the

connections queue, according to new

gures from the Energy Networks

Association.

ENA’s Strategic Connections Group,

made up of network operators and in-

dustry partners, is dedicated to accel-

erating the speed of grid connections.

It has prioritised practical reforms and

is advocating strategic changes to the

UK’s planning processes to make grid

connections even faster.

Lawrence Slade, Chief Executive of

Energy Networks Association, said:

“Removing these stalled schemes is a

necessary step to make the UK’s grid

connection process faster but it’s just

one part of the solution and work must

continue at pace.”

Meanwhile, the regulator has sped up

its approval process for large network

projects designed to recongure the

network to maximise use of renew-

ables. A groundbreaking celebration

was held recently for the UK’s single

largest electricity transmission project,

a £4.3 billion 2 GW high voltage direct

current (H) subsea link from e-

terhead in Scotland to Drax in England,

delivered as a joint venture by Na-

tional Grid Electricity Transmission

and SSEN Transmission.

Akshay Kaul, Ofgem Director Gen-

eral for Infrastructure Group, said:

“We’re standing here two years earlier

than we might have been thanks to

Ofgem’s fast track new process which

cuts red tape to get consumers across

the country connected to renewable

energy more quickly.”

The project is the rst of four planned

subsea links between Scotland and

England.

UK starts network

reforms to deliver ‘clean

energy mission’

Norwa plans oating win spport while

U organisations set ot opportnit

s attract interest from Cech

and UK governments

nerg grops call for panropean action to increase storage

n Germany sets out network plan n Terms of hydrogen auction published

n ‘Zombie’ projects removed from connections queue

n Regulator promises fast action to deliver HVDC links

ropes hrogen investment taes in

transport an proction assets

Chinese energy company TBEA is the

latest to have initiated discussions with

Azerbaijan on possible cooperation in

renewable energy equipment manu-

facturing, technology supply, and par-

ticipation in regional infrastructure

projects.

The Azeri energy ministry is consid-

ering a memorandum of understanding

with TBEA, and cooperation could be

developed within the framework of the

imminent COP29 climate summit, to

be held in Azerbaijan’s capital city,

Baku.

Azeri Energy Minister Parviz Shah-

bazov also met with the Vice President

of PowerChina International Group,

Yang Yisheng. PowerChina is already

involved in the 240 MW Khizi-Ab-

sheron wind farm and the auction pro-

cess for a 100 MW solar power project

in Gobustan.

A recent report by research and in-

telligence company Rystad Energy

expects Azerbaijan’s renewable-

based power generation (including

hydropower) to more than triple from

7 per cent of overall generation last

year to 22 per cent by 2030.

In an effort to reduce its domestic

carbon footprint and free-up natural

gas for export, Azerbaijan is planning

$2 billion worth of investments in

green energy initiatives.

“International investors have shown

signicant interest in funding these

projects, and the country is looking to

solidify these commitments through

its role as host of COP29 in Novem-

ber,” a Rystad analyst said. “More

renewables at home will help the

country meet its target of doubling its

gas exports to Europe by 2027 and

allow it to add green hydrogen pro-

duction as part of its long-term energy

strategy.”

Renewable energy already represents

nearly 20 per cent of new installed

capacity in Azerbaijan, Rystad said,

and is set to increase to 38 per cent by

2030. “At the same time, the country

will continue to push for more fossil-

fuel investment to meet both its export

ambitions and rising domestic de-

mand,” the analyst added.

Gas red power will remain the base-

load, contributing more than 75 per

cent of overall power generation in

2030 and remaining a transitional fuel

in the long term, according to Rystad.

A coalition of oil-producing African

countries is seeking $5 billion to

launch an “energy bank” that would

fund projects on the continent, as frus-

tration grows over the reluctance of

western institutions to bankroll fossil

fuel initiatives because of environ-

mental concerns.

The 18-member African Petroleum

Producers’ Organization hopes the

lender can begin operating in early

2025, according to Haytham El Maay-

ergi, Executive Vice-President of

global trade at the African Export-

Import Bank, a partner in the project.

Africa’s oil producers have encoun-

tered funding restrictions from tradi-

tional western backers, including mul-

tilateral institutions whose rules

increasingly bar them from oil and gas

investing. The World Bank stopped

nancing upstream oil and gas projects

in 2019 while the African Develop-

ment Bank does not put money into

fossil fuel projects.

El Maayergi insisted that “Africa’s

context is totally different” as its re-

sources had not been fully developed

and it had made only a minimal con-

tribution to climate change. He also

said that other projects such as electric-

ity infrastructure also needed funding.

The African Energy Chamber, an

advocacy group, has argued that Af-

rica has the “sovereign right” to de-

velop its natural resources, including

oil and gas, in a “balanced and sustain-

able” manner.

The 18 countries in the Africa En-

ergy Bank project, which include Ni-

geria, Angola and Libya, are each be-

ing asked to contribute $83 million,

raising almost $1.5 billion. This would

be matched by the African Export-

Import Bank.

The remainder of the funds will be

sought from other sources including

Gulf states, banks and other institu-

tions, sovereign wealth funds, cash-

rich traders and international banks

interested in taking an equity stake.

Petroleum ministers in the consor-

tium are expected to meet in November

to nalise plans for the new energy

bank that will be headquartered in Ni-

geria’s capital, Abuja.

Global demand for natural gas is in-

creasing at a stronger rate in 2024 than

in the previous two years, but supplies

remain limited due to the relatively

slow growth of LNG production and

lingering geopolitical tensions, the

IEA has warned in its latest report on

global gas markets and security.

Expected to rise by more than 2.5 per

cent both this year and next, global gas

demand is growing particularly fast in

Asia. A rebound in Europe’s industrial

gas demand is also contributing to

growth, even though it remains well

below its pre-crisis levels.

“The balance between demand and

supply trends is fragile, with clear risks

of future volatility,” said IEA Director

of Energy Markets and Security

Keisuke Sadamori. “Producers and

consumers must work together closely

to navigate these uncertain times while

taking into account the need to advance

clean energy transitions to ensure a

secure and sustainable future.”

Nadia Weekes

Conversations are intensifying at the

heart of South Africa’s government as

ministers debate the details of the next

phase of the Independent Power Pro-

ducer (IPP) Programme.

Electricity and Energy Minister,

Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, is expected

to unveil proposals in November that

should boost South Africa’s efforts to

procure 10 GW of renewable energy

capacity.

Ramokgopa said that creating clear

procurement pathways would restore

the long-term policy certainty needed

for s, their nancial backers, and

the broader supply chain.

The energy landscape is at a critical

juncture, as it grapples with not only

generation capacity but also substan-

tial industrialisation opportunities in

the renewable energy sector.

According to Segemotso Scheepers,

Head of the National Transmission

Company of South Africa (NTCSA),

signicant lead times exist for impor-

tant equipment like large transformers,

which can take up to 36 months to

deliver. This underlines the urgency

for clear procurement strategies.

ince ugust , the  fce

has procured more than 8 GW of ca-

pacity that is now operational or under

construction across 107 projects.

Only 18 per cent of the required in-

vestment has come from internation-

al investors.

The IPP Programme has already re-

sulted in dramatic reductions in en-

ergy costs, which have fallen by more

than 70 per cent for wind energy and

90 per cent for solar.

To further streamline the bidding

process, the ministry convened meet-

ings with stakeholders, aiming to re-

view past bid windows and address

reservations that have previously hin-

dered progress.

Proposed reforms may include ef-

forts by Eskom to reduce timelines for

grid connection cost estimates, and

the nalisation of the curtailment

framework that could unlock signi-

cant solar capacity in areas currently

considered under-connected.

Brian Day, Chairman of the South

African Independent Power Producer

Association, suggested that grid con-

nection and other regulatory approv-

als for renewable energy projects

should be processed in parallel to

reduce risks and speed up project

implementation.

Ramokgopa also indicated that

South Africa might look to interna-

tional models, such as Saudi Arabia’s

solar parks, aiming to concentrate

power generation projects in locations

with strong grid access.

The latest report from the Global CCS

nstitute reveals signicant momen-

tum for the carbon capture and storage

(CCS) technology as governments

and industry around the world strive

to slash greenhouse gas emissions.

With 628 projects across all stages

of development, CCS project activi-

ties continue to display strong growth.

Global CO

capture capacity is on

track to double to over 100 million

tonnes per year (Mtpa) of CO

, once

facilities currently under construction

commence operation.

The Americas continue to lead the

world in CCS facility deployment,

catalysed by sustained policy support

and funding incentives: 27 projects

are in operation, and 18 are commenc-

ing construction across the US, Brazil

and Canada.

Across Asia, storage hubs and cross-

border CCS projects are a dominant

trend, as nations with limited geo-

logical storage resources explore op-

portunities for nations with large stor-

age resources to store their CO

Across Europe, 191 projects are at

various stages of development, in-

cluding ve in operation and  under

construction. Across the Middle East

and Africa, CCS project development

has evolved from application in en-

hanced oil recovery to industrial de-

carbonisation and low-carbon fuel

development.

Meanwhile, new research from the

Institute for Energy Economics and

Financial Analysis (IEEFA) has found

that most of Europe’s planned CCS

applications are struggling to advance

and are too expensive to work on a

commercial basis.

Given CCS’s technical immaturity

and the problems that have plagued

operational projects, the report warns

that the technology’s already pro-

hibitive cost is likely to remain high,

if not increase, in the near-term.

IEEFA estimates the total cost of Eu-

rope’s planned 200 CCS projects will

be €520 billion.

hile nancial incentives in the

form of reduced emissions trading

system payments could cover about

three-quarters of project costs, the

remainder will need to be shouldered

by governments.

The proposed timelines of European

CCS projects are over-optimistic, the

report said. About 90 will need to be

operational by 2030 across the EU and

the UK for both to meet their carbon

capture targets. Currently, there are

three operational CCS projects in the

EU and none in the UK.

Installed CCS capacity to double

amid global collaboration

African countries eye new

fossil fuel project lender

Natural gas demand picks up in 2024, says IEA

South Africa weighs up IPP procurement options

Azerbaijan opens up to China on

green energy cooperation

n Carbon reduction goals boost global CCS momentum

n European projects “delayed and expensive”

THE ENERGY INDUSTRY TIMES - NOVEMBER 2024

International News

n Government to launch new procurement drive

n Calls for better regulatory and grid connection processes

secure supply of the necessary me-

dium-voltage power cables. NKT

will deliver approximately 600 km

of power cables per year over the

next eight years. The framework

agreement includes an option to ex-

tend for an additional four years.

GE Vernova has signed an agreement

with Aula Energy and CS Energy to

provide 38.6 MW-164 m turbines for

the Boulder Creek Wind Farm in

Queensland, Australia. The project is

located 40 km southwest of Rock-

hampton. The deal includes a ve-year

full-service agreement.

Site preparatory works at the

Boulder Creek Wind Farm are ex-

pected to commence before the end

of 2024, with activity aiming to

ramp-up from early to mid-2025,

and operations anticipated to com-

mence in 2027.

The Australian Government has ap-

proved two solar power projects with

a combined generating capacity of 800

MW. The projects are the 450 MW

Goulburn River Solar Park in New

South Wales and the 350 MW Sixteen

Mile Solar Project near Chinchilla in

Queensland.

The 450 MW Goulburn River So-

lar Park is located near Merriwa be-

tween the Central-West Orana Re-

newable Energy Zone (REZ) and

the Hunter Central Coast REZ and

will have direct access to the exist-

ing transmission network. The proj-

ect will include construction of

1 million solar panels, a battery en-

ergy storage system (BESS) and lo-

cal road upgrades.

The 350 MW Sixteen Mile Solar

Project comprises over 570 000 so-

lar panels and a 120 MW BESS. It

is planned to connect it to the exist-

ing Western Downs Substation.

Wärtsilä has signed a renewal of its

O&M agreement for a 105 MW hy-

dropower plant owned by the IPP

Ndola Energy Company Ltd (NECL)

in Zambia. By ensuring the reliability

and availability of the plant, NECL can

meet its Power Purchase Agreement

PPA obligations with Zambia’s utility,

ZESCO.

The plant operates with six Wärt-

silä 32 engines and six Wärtsilä 32

twin turbochargers. Hydropower is

the main source of electricity in

Zambia. However, the country is

facing a powe rshortage due to a

drought that has impacted hydro-

power generation. The NECL plant

is therefore important for maintain-

ing a reliable electricity supply.

Gamesa Electric will supply battery

inverters for Australian energy and

metals group Fortescue to use in a 50

MW/250 MWh battery energy storage

system (BESS) project in Western

Australia. Known as the North Star

Junction BESS, the project will utilise

12 Gamesa Electric Proteus PCS-E

units. Gamesa Electric will supply the

inverters in plug-and-play congura-

tion in six PCS stations, including

transformers and MV equipment.

The project will be located 145

km south of Port Hedland, in West-

ern Australia’s Pilbara region. It is

part of Fortescue’s plan to achieve

Real Zero Scope 1 and 2 emissions

across its Australian terrestrial iron

ore operations by 2030.

diesel to renewable diesel will help

Ve rn e re du c e t he g re e nh o us e g a s em is -

sions from their backup generators by

on average 90 per cent over the life-

cycle of the fuel.

Neste MY Renewable Diesel is

made from 100 per cent renewable

raw materials, such as animal fat

from food industry waste and used

cooking oil. Having a similar chem-

ical composition to fossil diesel,

Neste’s renewable diesel enables

Verne to make the switch without

any modications to its generator

infrastructure.

SPIE Global Services Energy, a sub-

sidiary of SPIE, announced that its

wind power high-voltage entity Cor-

rell has won a contract from Jan De

Nul to complete the 66 kV (IAC) ter-

mination and testing on 72 wind tur-

bine generators for RWE’s Thor Off-

shore Wind Farm, which will have a

capacity in excess of 1 GW when

complete.

Work is due to commence in July

2025 with the mock-up scheduled

for November 2024. Offshore in-

stallation and commissioning of the

cable system are expected in 2025.

Jan De Nul was awarded the EPCI

cable contracts by RWE in consor-

tium with Hellenic Cables and will

provide the entire cable package.

Thor Offshore Wind Farm will be

constructed in the Danish North

Sea, approximately 22 km off the

coast of Thorsminde on the west

coast of Jutland.

Nordex will supply twelve N149/5.X

turbines for the construction of a new

66 MW onshore wind farm for Capital

Dynamics. The order also includes a

Premium Service contract for the tur-

bines over 30 years.

The Douglas West Extension is

being built about 40 km southeast

of Glasgow in a rural region in

South Lanarkshire.

Nordex will supply and install the

wind turbines on tubular steel tow-

ers with a hub height of 125 m from

summer 2025.

Framatome has signed a Memoran-

dum of Understanding (MoU) with

E regarding ramatome’s own-

design VVER-1000 fuel development

programme.

Nineteen VVER reactors are cur-

rently in operation in the European

Union, including four VVER 1000

MW reactors in the Czech Republic

and Bulgaria, and 15 VVER 440

MW reactors in the Czech Repub-

lic, Finland, Hungary and Slovakia.

The international context has accel-

erated the need for a Framatome

sovereign VVER fuel design to re-

duce the risk of interruption in the

supply of critical services and to re-

duce dependency on imports from

outside of Europe.

Dutch distribution system operator

Enexis has entered into a long-term

framework agreement with NKT to

deliver medium-voltage power cables.

Over the next eight years, Enexis

Netbeheer intends to lay several

thousand kilometres of underground

power cables to expand the power

grid in the Dutch provinces of

Groningen, Drenthe, Overijssel,

Brabant and Limburg to prepare for

an increasing amount of renewable

energy.

The framework agreement will

Avangrid, part of the Iberdrola Group,

won a contract from the US Depart-

ment of Energy for a $425 million

capacity contract for its Aroostook

Renewable Project. The announce-

ment comes as the Maine Public

Utilities Commission (MPUC) pre-

pares to issue a transmission line Re-

quest for Proposals to connect 1200

MW of renewable energy to the New

England power grid in Maine.

The generation portion is being so-

licited by the MPUC separately.

Avangrid intends to participate in the

transmission line RFP process and

will include the capacity contract as

part of the company’s proposal.

Construction of this high-voltage

line is intended to relieve transmis-

sion constraints that have stalled the

development of renewable resourc-

es in Northern Maine.

Exus Management Partners has

awarded a 137 MW contract to Vestas

Wind Systems for two repowering

projects in the USA.

The contract covers the Highland

North and Highland Cambria re-

powering projects in Pennsylvania,

for which Vestas will supply V120-

2.2 MW turbines. Delivery of the

turbines will take place in Q4 2025,

with commissioning planned for Q1

2026. The order also includes a 20-

year service agreement.

Nordex has announced that it has re-

ceived orders for 74 N163 turbines

with 500 MW capacity from an undis-

closed party in anada. The nancial

terms of the transaction have also not

been disclosed.

The orders include a premium ser-

vice for the maintenance of the tur-

bines between 15 and 30 years.

Nordex will supply the machines

during the period from 2025 to

2026.

The US Department of Energy (DOE)

has awarded a contract to Framatome

to develop High-Assay Low-Enriched

Uranium (HALEU) fuel for advanced

nuclear power reactors.

The DOE contract is for a 10-year

period of performance to provide

deconversion services for HALEU

production for new domestic capac-

ity in support of the mission of nu-

clear energy. Deconversion services

include the design, licensing and

construction of production facilities

and the production of oxide and

metal HALEU product.

Framatome is working closely

with nuclear reactor developers and

the DOE to ensure the supply chain

establishment of HALEU meets

their needs at this critical time in

nuclear energy progress.

Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI)

has won an order from Kyushu Electric

Power to supply MOX fuel assemblies

for Unit 3 of the Genkai nuclear pow-

er station in Japan.

Under the terms of the contract,

MHI will design the MOX fuel and

have components such as cladding

tubes manufactured by Mitsubishi

Nuclear Fuel. These will be sup-

plied to Orano, which will fabricate

40 MOX fuel assemblies at its

MELOX plant in France.

Doosan Enerbility, Siemens Gamesa

Renewable Energy, and Equinor have

signed an MOU on cooperation for the

750 MW Ulsan Bandibuli Floating

Offshore Wind Farm. The project is

located off the coast of Ulsan, South

Korea.

Siemens Gamesa will be deploy-

ing a 14 MW large-size wind tur-

bine, and Doosan Enerbility will as-

semble the nacelles.

Seungwoo Sohn, CEO of Doosan

Enerbility’s Power Services Busi-

ness Group, said: “With the signing

of this MOU, we will be able to fur-

ther solidify the partnership be-

tween the three companies and by

continuously engaging in collabora-

tions, we expect to contribute to the

promotion of Korea’s offshore wind

power ecosystem.”

Jindal Renewables has placed a 400

MW order through JSP Green Wind 1

with Suzlon. It said that the project is

the largest commercial and industrial

wind energy order in India.

The project will be located in Kop-

pal region in Karnataka, India. The

power generated will be used for

captive consumption at steel plants

in Chhattisgarh and Odisha.

Suzlon will install 127 wind tur-

bine generators, each with a rated

capacity of 3.15 MW, using hybrid

lattice tubular towers.

GE Vernova has won an order for

three 7HA.03 gas turbines to be in-

stalled at Kansai Electric’s Nanko

power station in Osaka, Japan. These

turbines will replace the existing ag-

ing conventional LNG power genera-

tion assets and are expected to in-

crease power plant efciency and

reduce its CO

emissions.

Ramesh Singaram, President and

CEO, Asia of GE Vernova’s Gas

Power, said: “The plant is expected

to deliver up to 1.8 GW to the grid in

total and to be the among the most

efcient in the country. n addition,

7HA.03 gas turbine technology cur-

rently has the capability to burn up

to 50 per cent by volume of hydro-

gen when blended with natural gas,

with a technology pathway to 100

per cent over the next decade.”

PT Inti Karya Persada Tehnik (IKPT),

a subsidiary of Toyo Engineering, and

EPC contractor for the expansion of

the Wayang Windu Geothermal Pow-

er Plant Unit 3 in West Java, Indonesia

has awarded Toshiba Energy Systems

with an order to supply a steam turbine

and a generator.

This is the rst time Toshiba will

supply equipment for a geothermal

plant operated by Star Energy

Group, Indonesia’s largest geother-

mal power producer.

Ve rn e’s da ta c en t re s i n He l si n ki , Po ri

and Tampere in Finland will use Neste

MY Renewable Diesel to power back-

up generators. The switch from fossil

Americas

siaai

Avangrid capacity contract

for Maine

Repowering 137 MW of

US wind farms

Nordex wins Canadian

orders for 500 MW

HALEU as fuel for US

advanced reactors

OU for  orea oating

offshore wind farm

Renewable diesel back-up

for Finnish data centre

SPIE selected for Thor

termination and testing

66 MW order for Nordex

in Scotland

ramatome an  sign

MoU on VVER-1000 fuel

NKT signs framework

agreement for Dutch grid

GE Vernova wind turbines

for Boulder

Two new solar plants in

NSW and Queensland

Wärtsilä renews O&M

agreement for Ndola

Jindal awards Suzlon

400 MW wind order

GE Vernova H-class GTs

to repower Nanko station

Toshiba ST for Indonesian

geothermal plant

MHI to supply MOX fuel

assemblies

International

Europe

THE ENERGY INDUSTRY TIMES - NOVEMBER 2024

Tenders, Bids & Contracts

Inverters for 50 MW

Australian BESS project

his month, Eurelectric pub-

lished its ‘Power Barometer’.

The barometer is Eurelectric’s

annual data report offering an evi-

dence-based analysis of the EU pow-

er sector’s performance over the past

year. This year’s edition had two ma-

jor themes. Firstly, the potential for

industry to electrify is greater than

previously thought. Yet, perversely,

the opposite is happening: industrial

demand is dropping. Secondly, nega-

tive price hours have reached record

levels and are undermining the at-

tractiveness of investments in new

generation. Thankfully, a potential

major solution to the latter (negative

prices), lies in the former (industry

exibility).

Let’s begin with negative prices. As

of ugust , the EU experienced

the highest number of negative pric-

es in electricity wholesale markets.

Prices went below zero for more than

1030 hours between January and Au-

gust 2024 in at least one EU bidding

zone, according to our latest Power

Barometer. This meant that power

suppliers had to pay to supply elec-

tricity to the grid, instead of being

paid themselves. While this phenom-

enon can challenge clean energy gen-

eration investments, it also presents

opportunities to electrify further and

invest in storage and exibility solu-

tions that help balance the increasing

variability in our ever-greener energy

system.

Notably, negative prices are a

wake-up call for an increasingly

worrying trend for our sector: there

is not enough power demand in Eu-

rope. The good news is that there are

ways to x this and several actors

that can make this change happen,

starting with energy intensives.

In 2023 and 2024 negative prices

mostly occurred at times of peak re-

newable power generation, especial-

ly solar. In 2023, there were nega-

tive prices during 9 per cent of the

total hours. This increased to 18 per

cent this year with solar power gi-

ants Spain and Portugal seeing neg-

ative prices for the rst time. uch

occurrences complicate the business

case for new renewable capacity

and other low carbon technologies,

as they make return on investments

more difcult and increase renew-

able curtailments.

Not all is doom and gloom, howev-

er. Negative prices highlight the need

for more exible power demand to

absorb excess electricity during low-

price hours. They present an oppor-

tunity for drawing investments into

projects that enhance system exibil-

ity and add storage capacity, both of

which help assimilate the growing

volume of renewable energy.

n the rst half of , renewables

alone made-up half of total power

production followed by a stable 24

per cent of nuclear generation. Solar

PV installations surged to 56 GW in

2023, representing a 300 per cent

growth compared to 2019. Wind also

increased its capacity by 16 GW, de-

spite falling below the necessary

growth rate to meet 2030 targets. By

, we expect to see renewables

accounting for 70 per cent of the EU

power generation mix. That is, if we

can keep a sound business model and

increase power demand.

One of the most important lessons

from negative prices is that we need

to boost power demand to help ab-

sorb supply surplus. Large industrial

energy consumers can make a differ-

ence here, by electrifying their pro-

cesses which are still heavily reliant

on fossil fuels.

The demand for electricity is close-

ly tied to economic activity. As Eu-

rope’s industries experience econom-

ic decline and relocate abroad – due

to growing ination, high capital

costs and uncompetitive energy pric-

es – overall demand for power de-

creases. This is what happened dur-

ing the energy crisis, where over 50

per cent of the demand reduction that

occurred between 2021 and 2023 can

be attributed to industrial decline.

Europe’s industrial sectors, tradi-

tionally heavy users of energy, are

critical to Europe’s economy and

competitiveness, but are not suf-

ciently electried. Today, only a

third of industrial nal energy de-

mand is powered by electricity. We

must therefore address the common

misunderstanding that electrication

cannot directly power most industri-

al processes.

A joint study by the Fraunhofer in-

stitute and gora conrms that it is

technically feasible to electrify near-

ly 90 per cent of industry in Europe.

Most notably, process heating, which

is responsible for 75 per cent of all

industrial emissions, could be direct-

ly powered via existing technologies

such as electric boilers, arc furnaces,

heat pumps, induction heating, plas-

ma torches and many more.

There is one especially interesting

case of industrial electrication that 

would like to draw attention to and

that is the work being done by BASF

– the world’s largest chemical pro-

ducer – , Saudi Arabia’s Sabic and

German gas giant Linde. In a major

milestone for their sector, they com-

missioned the world’s rst electric

cracker demonstration project in

April this year. Steam cracking is

used to produce ethylene and other

high-value chemicals (HVCs). These

electried steam crackers employ re-

sistance and shock-wave heating.

ith electrication, the energy ef-

ciency of steam crackers is expected

to be as high as 95 per cent, versus

the  per cent efciency we see for

today’s fuel-based steam crackers.

o if the technology exists, then

what’s stopping industry from elec-

trifying? High capital costs of elec-

tric alternatives often hamper in-

dustry from switching to electro-

intensive processes. More support

is needed from policymakers to en-

sure the power sector and the in-

dustrial base grow together. Eur-

electric recently wrote a letter to

Heads of State and Government to

offer solutions to this interconnect-

ed challenge.

As detailed in the letter, we believe

the EU should centre its comprehen-

sive industrial strategy around four

key pillars, which we like to call the

4 ‘i’s:

1. Industry electrication incentives:

Policymakers can contribute by de-

veloping a range of solutions to en-

courage the electrication of indus-

trial processes. The rst move should

be revising the EU’s current energy

taxation policy. s shown in our

Power Barometer 2024, on the retail

side, taxes and levies are widening

the competitiveness gap with global

rivals.

n the EU, taxes on electricity bills

are, on average, 1.4 times higher than

those on gas bills. Revising the Euro-

pean Taxation irective thus presents

an opportunity to create a level play-

ing eld between the two energy

sources.

eyond taxation, policymakers can

further encourage the electrication

of industrial processes by establish-

ing a dedicated electrication bank, a

proposed competitiveness fund and

counter guarantees to lower invest-

ment risks.

Another key element in supporting

industrial electrication is recognis-

ing and appropriately valuing exi-

bility services in various markets.

This ensures that the benets of ex-

ible resources are fully realised, pro-

moting efcient energy system oper-

ation and effective price signals.

2. Implementation: Ensuring the ef-

fective implementation of existing

EU legislation is crucial. This in-

volves close monitoring and enforce-

ment to guarantee that Member

States comply with the directives and

regulations set forth by the EU.

mong the key les to implement is

the electricity market reform.

Expanding access to long-term

contracts like Power Purchase Agree-

ments (s) and ontracts for if-

ference (fs) for clean energy pro-

curement will also ensure price

stability for large energy consumers

and predictability for suppliers. Al-

though the PPA market is growing, it

is not advancing quickly enough,

with most of the growth being con-

centrated in Spain and Germany.

3. Investment certainty: EU policy-

makers should provide clear and

consistent policy frameworks that of-

fer long-term certainty for investors.

This includes measures that reduce

nancial risks and enhance the at-

tractiveness of investing in clean en-

ergy. Most importantly, they should

refrain from myopic state interven-

tions or short-term xes that can

damage competitiveness and delay

climate action.

4. Infrastructure development: The

rapid growth of renewables, and in

particular of variable energy sources

such as solar and wind, is leading to

an unprecedented amount of connec-

tion requests to Europe’s electricity

grid. Lithuania currently holds the

record in Europe, with a 1425 per

cent growth in grid connection re-

quests for solar PVs alone.

Combined with connection re-

quests coming from other decentral-

ised assets such as heat pumps and

electric vehicles, istribution ystem

Operators are facing an unprecedent-

ed challenge in keeping the power

grid stable.

Therefore, facilitating the develop-

ment of modern and resilient grid in-

frastructure that helps industrial elec-

trication and grid connections

increase will be crucial. This in-

cludes investments in distribution

grids, the integration of smart grid

technologies and the expansion of

cross-border interconnections for a

total of €67 billion per year – as

shown in our ‘Grids for Speed’ study.

The path to a decarbonised and

competitive energy future is clear.

y prioritising electrication, ensur-

ing investor certainty, boosting de-

mand and developing infrastructure,

Europe can boost electrication,

achieve its climate targets and main-

tain its leadership in the global ener-

gy transition.

As we move forward, it is impera-

tive that policymakers and industry

work collaboratively to implement

these strategies. Together, we can

drive the electrication agenda, and

create a resilient, competitive and de-

carbonised economy.

Cillian O’Donoghue is Policy Direc-

tor at Eurelectric

The potential for energy-intensive industries to electrify is increasing with technological advancements. In parallel,

the business case for industry exibility is now greater than ever with the ower sector exeriencing record levels of

negative price hours. Eurelectric’s Cillian O’Donoghue believes it is becoming increasingly clear that those industries

that electrify their rocesses and ex their demand will be the winners in the transition

Boosting industry competitiveness:

electrify and ex that demand

THE ENERG NUTR TE - NEER 

Industry Perspective

O’Donoghue: the EU should

centre its comprehensive

industrial strategy around the

4 ‘i’s

Negative prices highlight the

need or ore eile power

deand to asor eess

eletriity dring lowprie

hours

reached approximately 3.9 TW in

2023, up from 1.2-1.3 TW in 2010,

according to IEA and IRENA data.

Total capital expenditure likely sur-

passed $3 trillion for generation ca-

pacity, plus at least $1.5 trillion for

supporting infrastructure including

storage and grid networks, though

precise gures vary signicantly

across technologies and regions.

Notably, while only 1 TW was added

during the 2010s, installations ac-

celerated to 1.5 TW between 2020

and 2023. This momentum is ex-

pected to continue, with the IEA

forecasting renewables to supply

nearly half of global electricity de-

mand by 2030.

China is projected to dominate this

expansion, contributing almost 60 per

cent of new capacity. Despite this

progress, current trajectories fall short

of the COP28 target to triple renew-

able capacity by 2030. The IEA out-

lines four scenarios projecting total

capacity between 7.9 TW and 11.45

TW. A realistic estimate suggests ca-

pacity will increase 2 to 2.5-fold from

 levels, reaching - T.

chieving this requires stronger na-

tional climate commitments, im-

proved international nancing coop-

eration, and substantial grid and

storage investments.

The growth of green bonds demon-

strates another success story. These

debt securities, whose proceeds fund

environmental or climate-related

projects, have seen remarkable ex-

pansion. ver   green-related

bonds were issued between 2006 and

une , raising over  billion,

based on data from non-governmental

organisation limate ond nitiative,

with particularly strong volumes

since 2019. Green, social, and sus-

tainability-linked (GSS) bonds al-

ready account for 14 per cent of the

xed income market having grown at

a compound annual growth rate of 43

per cent in the ten years to 2023, ac-

cording , a nancial institution.

 diverse range of entities issues

these bonds, including governments,

nancial institutions and corpora-

tions. n the rst half of , major

green bond issues included the Euro-

pean Union ($12 billion), the Euro-

pean nvestment ank (. billion),

government-owned rench utility

E (. billion), and U indepen-

dent power company Pattern Energy

Group ($8.8 billion), according to the

limate ond nitiative. ssuance was

also global with the top four countries

including the U, Germany, rance

and China. In 2024, GSS issuance is

expected by S&P and others to reach

approximately $1 trillion. The share

of the overall xed income market

should continue to rise in the coming

years.

 third indicator of climate nance

growth is the rising volume of assets

under management (AUM) dedicat-

ed to green objectives. The Global

mpact nvesting Network reports

that the global impact investing

he challenges facing climate

nance are formidable. The

path ahead is fraught with ob-

stacles, many of which, like geopo-

litical factors, remain unpredictable.

Yet, there are grounds for optimism.

While implementation will take time,

it is crucial to view the nancing of

this transition through a long-term

lens of three to ve years, rather than

a quarterly perspective. The unprec-

edented growth across three key sec-

tors – global renewable energy capac-

ity, green xed-income instruments,

and impact investment portfolios –

demonstrates climate nance’s in-

creasing momentum.

There are numerous aspects to the

variety of challenges in funding en-

ergy transition projects. To catch the

opportunities and to understand the

risks, it is essential to gauge what the

challenges are. These revolve around

government and private sector ac-

tions, the funding of projects in non-

developed economies, and geopoliti-

cal uncertainties.

The global shift to a low-carbon

economy and achieving net ero by

the middle of this century depends on

the successful execution of a vast

number of projects. This requires a

substantial amount of capital. In a

September 2024 commentary in The

Energy Industry Times titled rivate

sector nance the linchpin of energy

transition investment’, it was high-

lighted that the projected capital re-

quirements are immense.

nnually, several trillion dollars

will be needed, with estimates rang-

ing from $3.5 trillion to $7 trillion,

depending on project categorisation.

While the balance sheets of the cor-

porates involved in the transition are

insufcient to fund all potential

projects, dedicated capital is abun-

dant globally. Nevertheless, the

bridge between the projects and the

funding remains incomplete, with

several crucial elements yet to be

fully established.

t the government level, policy

signals must be clear, and mecha-

nisms to incentivise investments in

energy transition projects must be

promoted in order to enhance their

bankability. urthermore, the policies

must be well-executed, with barriers

such as bureaucratic red tape being

minimised.

t the market level, comprising

policymakers, regulators, nancial

institutions, and service providers,

several obstacles need to be ad-

dressed. The think-tank Rocky

Mountain Institute highlights issues

such as inconsistent denitions and

labels regarding what qualies as a

transition nance project, the need to

increase the availability of transition-

relevant data, and the challenge of

addressing the stigma of high nanced

emissions. The latter refers to emis-

sions resulting from the lending and

investment activities of nancial in-

stitutions, in other words, the carbon

footprint of the projects they fund.

oreover, accelerating clean energy

investments in emerging and devel-

oping economies constitutes a crucial

aspect of the global decarbonisation

endeavour. Typically, the domestic

funding resources of such economies

are more constrained, necessitating

additional measures to attract invest-

ments from the local governments of

international entities, including Mul-

tilateral evelopment anks (s)

like the World Bank or the Asian De-

velopment ank.

The intricate geopolitical landscape,

marked by Russia’s ongoing invasion

of Ukraine, instability in the Middle

East, and escalating tensions between

the US, EU, and China, presents sig-

nicant challenges to energy transi-

tion capital ows. These geopolitical

issues highlight vulnerabilities in

supply chains, uncertainties in market

access, and obstacles to international

cooperation.

Despite the challenges, corpora-

tions and investors have reason to be

optimistic about climate nance’s

future. The sector’s track record is

particularly encouraging, with three

notable successes the huge expan-

sion of global renewable energy ca-

pacity, the colossal growth in green

xed-income instruments, and the

enormous rise in green investment

assets under management.

The expansion of renewable energy

generation capacity has exceeded

expert predictions. Total capacity

market – capital deployed to gener-

ate both measurable social or envi-

ronmental benets and nancial re-

turns – reached over . trillion in

AUM, managed by more than 3900

organisations. This represents a 21

per cent compound annual growth

rate over ve years, signalling main-

stream acceptance.

or comparison, U totalled

$1.16 trillion in 2022 and $715 billion

in . The average investment

portfolio holds $986 million in impact

AUM, with a median of $42 million.

hile investment managers comprise

59 per cent of organisations, they

manage only 27 per cent of global

impact AUM, as pension funds and

insurers hold larger proportions. De-

veloped markets dominate, with Eu-

rope and North America representing

about four-fths of institutions. e-

spite regulatory complexity and eco-

nomic pressures, investors report

satisfaction with both nancial and

impact performance. mpact invest-

ing is yet another category in climate

nance, which will continue to grow

over the next few years.

The dramatic growth in global re-

newable energy capacity, green

xed-income instruments, and im-

pact investing U exemplies cli-

mate nance’s remarkable success.

hile the sector has overcome sig-

nicant hurdles and faces fresh chal-

lenges, viewing its trajectory through

a long-term lens of three to ve years,

rather than through daily headlines,

reveals compelling investment and

business opportunities emerging

from climate nance’s momentum.

Joseph Jacobelli, head of single-fam-

ily ofce ougie Impact Capital td.

has over 30 years’ experience in en-

ergy marets. e promotes climate

nance aareness through his sia

Climate inance Podcast’ and puli-

cations, including his forthcoming

oo Empoering Clean Energy’s

uccession’. his commentary dras

from that oo.

THE ENERGY INDUSTRY TIMES - NOVEMBER 2024

Decarbonisation Series

Achieving net zero by

mid-century depends

on the successful

execution of a vast

number of projects.

But although the

challenges to raising

the trillions of dollars

of capital required

are signicant,

corporations and

investors have

reasons to be

optimistic.

Joseph Jacobelli

explains.

liate nane otloo

reasons to e heerl

aoelli he setors tra

reord is partilarly

enoraging

oreard ligned 

green soial and

sstainailitylined det

Source: Climate Bond Initiative

August 2024

limate and energy security

policies in nearly 140 coun-

tries have played a crucial

role in making renewables cost-com-

petitive with fossil-red power

plants. At the same time, industrial

policies that encourage local manu-

facturing of solar panels and wind

turbines are fostering domestic mar-

kets. However, this is not quite suf-

cient to reach the goal of tripling re-

newable energy capacity worldwide

established by nearly 200 countries

at the COP28 climate summit in

Dubai last year.

According to the International En-

ergy Agency’s (IEA) ‘Renewables

2024: Analysis and forecast to 2030’

published last month, global renew-

able capacity is expected to grow by

2.7 times by 2030 – surpassing

countries’ current ambitions by near-

ly 25 per cent but still falling short of

what is needed.

Considering existing policies and

market conditions, the IEA’s main

case sees 5500 GW of new renew-

able capacity becoming operational

by 2030. This implies that global re-

newable capacity additions will con-

tinue to increase every year, reaching

almost 940 GW annually by 2030 –

70 per cent more than the record lev-

el achieved last year. Solar PV and

wind together account for 95 per

cent of all renewable capacity

growth through the end of this de-

cade due to their growing economic

attractiveness in almost all countries.

Such rapid expansion presents an

opportunity for countries to an-

nounce enhanced ambitions in the

next round of Nationally Determined

Contributions (NDCs) due in 2025.

But only 14 countries had explicit

renewable capacity targets in the

NDCs they had designed before

COP28. In the IEA’s main case,

nearly 70 countries, collectively ac-

counting for 80 per cent of global ca-

pacity, reach or surpass their current

ambitions for 2030. China dominates

among these overachievers, but oth-

er major economies, such as Brazil,

India and the US, also contribute.

The 2030 forecast has two main

drivers: solar PV and China.

China is set to cement its position

as the global renewables leader, ac-

counting for 60 per cent of the ex-

pansion in global capacity to 2030.

The country is forecast to be home

to every other megawatt of all re-

newable energy capacity installed

worldwide in 2030, after surpassing

its end-of-the-decade 1200 GW tar-

get for solar PV and wind six years

early. Since ending feed-in tariffs in

2020, China’s cumulative solar PV

capacity has almost quadrupled and

wind capacity has doubled, driven

by cost-competitiveness and sup-

portive policies. China’s success

stems from comprehensive support

for both large-scale and distributed

renewables across all renewable

technologies.

The EU and the US are both fore-

cast to double the pace of renewable

capacity growth between 2024 and

2030, while India sees the fastest

rate of growth among large econo-

mies. The nation Reduction ct’s

tax credits will continue to boost

growth in the US, while competitive

auctions and corporate power pur-

chase agreements are set to drive ex-

pansion in the EU. Member coun-

tries’ growth trends put the bloc’s

600 GW solar PV ambition for 2030

within reach, but more effort is need-

ed for wind. In India, the rapid ex-

pansion of auctions, the introduction

of a new support scheme for rooftop

 and stronger nancial indicators

for many utility companies make the

country the fastest growing renew-

able energy market among large

economies through 2030.

New solar capacity added between

now and 2030 will account for 80

per cent of the growth in renewable

power globally by the end of this de-

cade. Adoption accelerates due to

declining costs, shorter permitting

timelines and widespread social ac-

ceptance. Cost-competitiveness and

policy support also stimulate the

growth of distributed applications

among residential and commercial

consumers as more households and

companies seek to reduce their elec-

tricity bills.

Despite recent supply chain and

macroeconomic challenges, the wind

sector is expected to recover. Policy

changes concerning auction design,

permitting and grid connection in

Europe, the US, India and other

emerging and developing economies

are expected to enhance project

bankability and help the wind sector

recover from recent nancial dif-

culties. The forecast sees the rate of

global wind capacity expansion dou-

bling between 2024 and 2030 com-

pared with 2017-23. Hydropower ca-

pacity growth remains stable, driven

by China, India, the ASEAN region

and Africa. The role of other renew-

ables, including bioenergy, geother-

mal, concentrated solar power and

ocean, is expected to decline due to a

lack of policy support.

Hydrogen remains a negligible

driver for new renewable capacity

growth. Despite increased policy

support, hydrogen produced from re-

newable energy is set to account for

just 4 per cent of total hydrogen pro-

duction in 2030, mainly due to insuf-

cient demand creation. hile glob-

al installed electrolyser capacity is

expected to increase 50-fold by the

end of the decade, only part of it will

be supplied by new renewable power

plants, as half of the electrolysers are

estimated to use abundant low-cost

renewables generation from existing

plants. Overall, hydrogen is forecast

to drive only 43 GW of new renew-

able capacity by 2030, or less than 1

per cent of total global renewable ca-

pacity expansion.

The IEA believes tripling of global

renewable capacity is within reach,

but policy improvements are needed.

Its accelerated case sees global re-

newable capacity reaching almost 11

000 GW in 2030, laying out a path-

way for meeting the tripling goal. In

this case, China, Europe, India and

the US collectively provide 80 per

cent of total installed capacity world-

wide. The case sees China address-

ing grid integration challenges and

companies installing distributed so-

lar PV systems at a faster pace, while

in Europe and the US, governments

reduce long permitting timelines and

stimulate investment in new grid ca-

pacity and exible assets to unlock

additional deployment. In India, pol-

icies addressing challenges such as

land procurement, grid connection

wait times and the weak nancial

health of power distribution compa-

nies deliver additional growth.

Large untapped renewables poten-

tial in emerging and developing

economies can be realised if policies

improve. High nancing costs re-

duce the economic attractiveness of

renewables in most emerging and

developing economies. Other key

challenges include weak grid infra-

structure and a lack of visibility over

auction volumes. Measures to reduce

risks, including by creating stable

policy environments with clear long-

term targets, can help unlock addi-

tional capacity. In countries with fos-

sil fuel overcapacity with long-term

contracts, policy makers could con-

sider renegotiating inexible power

and fuel contracts and accelerating

the phasedown of fossil fuel plants.

In the IEA’s main case, renewables

will account for almost half of global

electricity generation by 2030, with

the share of wind and solar PV dou-

bling to 30 per cent. At the end of

this decade, solar PV is set to be-

come the largest renewable source,

surpassing both wind and hydropow-

er, which is currently the largest re-

newable generation source by far.

Increasing wind and solar PV gen-

eration is leading to higher curtail-

ment, underlining the growing need

for exibility. n countries where

grid investments and system integra-

tion measures are not keeping pace

with rapid deployment, curtailment

could become a growing challenge.

In Chile, Ireland and the UK, for ex-

ample, the curtailment of wind and

solar PV recently reached between 5

per cent and 15 per cent. Despite

growing investment in battery stor-

age in many of these markets, further

exibility measures, including long-

term storage and large-scale de-

mand-response, will be necessary.

By 2030, solar and wind penetration

is set to reach close to 70 per cent in

countries such as Chile, Germany,

the Netherlands and Portugal.

Crucially, grid infrastructure and

system integration of renewables

need increasing policy attention. In-

vestment in grid infrastructure is lag-

ging, with more advanced projects

waiting to be connected, though grid

reforms in some countries are begin-

ning to deliver results. At least 1650

GW of renewable capacity is cur-

rently in advanced stages of develop-

ment and waiting for a grid connec-

tion, 150 GW higher than at this

point last year. However, grid queues

for projects at early stages of devel-

opment have decreased, with proj-

ects either moving forward or drop-

ping out of the queue – some

without penalty – due to lack of

progress. Queues to integrate energy

storage are also signicant as de-

ployment rises.

Meanwhile, the solar PV and wind

manufacturing race continues, but

the dynamics are changing.

Solar PV manufacturers are scaling

back investment plans due to a deep-

ening supply glut and record-low

prices. Global solar manufacturing

capacity is expected to reach over

1100 GW by the end of 2024, more

than double the projected PV de-

mand. This oversupply has caused

module prices to more than halve

since early 2023, leading to negative

net margins for integrated solar PV

manufacturers in 2024. The chal-

lenging market conditions have re-

sulted in the cancellation of about

300 GW of polysilicon and 200 GW

of wafer manufacturing capacity

projects, valued at approximately

$25 billion.

China’s leadership in solar PV

manufacturing will continue while

industrial policies and trade mea-

sures stimulate diversication. y

2030, China is expected to maintain

more than 80 per cent of global man-

ufacturing capacity for all PV manu-

facturing segments. Meanwhile, so-

lar cell and module manufacturing

capacity almost triples in the US and

India. However, manufacturing PV

modules in both countries currently

costs two to three times more than in

China. This gap is set to remain in

place for the foreseeable future. Poli-

cy makers, says the IEA, should con-

sider striking a ne balance between

the additional costs and benets of

local manufacturing, weighing key

priorities such as job creation and

energy security.

In contrast, the wind turbine manu-

facturing sector needs more invest-

ment to avoid supply chain bottle-

necks by 2030. Global onshore wind

manufacturing capacity could reach

145 GW, barely above expected in-

stallations in 2030 despite the incen-

tives available in Europe, the US and

Southeast Asia. For offshore wind,

the situation is even more severe.

Without new manufacturing projects,

supply chain bottlenecks could delay

the rollout of offshore wind in EU

member states, which are pursuing

ambitious 2030 offshore wind goals.

A copy of ‘Renewables 2024’ can be

downloaded at https://www.iea.org/

reports/renewables-2024a

The International

Energy Agency

has published

‘Renewables 2024’,

an analysis and

forecast to 2030.

While renewables

are expected to

grow signicantly,

projected growth is

still expected to fall

short of the tripling of

capacity goal agreed

at COP28 in Dubai

last year. TEI Times

presents a summary

of the report.

Renewables: still falling short

THE ENERGY INDUSTRY TIMES - NOVEMBER 2024

Energy Outlook

Renewable capacity growth

and the gap to global tripling,

2022-2030

THE ENERGY INDUSTRY TIMES - NOVEMBER 2024

Final Word

The International Energy

Agency’s (IEA) latest World

Energy Outlook (WEO) pro-

vided few surprises in terms of the

direction of travel of the energy sector,

but it did shed light on the pace of the

clean energy transformation and the

central role of electricity in the ongo-

ing change.

According to the IEA, based on to-

day’s policy settings, the world is set

to enter “a new energy market context”

in the coming years. Low-emissions

sources like wind and solar are set to

generate more than half of the world’s

electricity before 2030 – and demand

for all three fossil fuels – coal, oil and

gas – is still projected to peak by the

end of this decade.

“In this context, the WEO-2024

shows that the contours of a new, more

electried energy system are coming

into focus as global electricity demand

soars,” stated the report. Data from the

Paris-based agency shows that elec-

tricity use has grown at twice the pace

of overall energy demand over the last

decade.

“In previous World Energy Outlooks,

the IEA made it clear that the future of

the global energy system is electric –

and now it is visible to everyone,” said

IEA Executive Director Dr Fatih Birol.

“In energy history, we’ve witnessed

the Age of Coal and the Age of Oil – and

we’re now moving at speed into the

ge of Electricity, which will dene

the global energy system going for-

ward and increasingly be based on

clean sources of electricity.”

Global electricity demand growth is

set to accelerate further in the years

ahead, adding the equivalent of Japan’s

demand to global electricity use each

year in a scenario based on current

policy – and rising even more quickly

in scenarios that meet national and

global goals for achieving net zero

emissions. According to the IEA,

global electricity demand was rising

at an annual rate of 1000 TWh. It also

increased its forecast for demand in

2035, in its business-as-usual scenario,

by 6 per cent, or 2200 TWh, to 37 371

TWh.

Notably, the IEA said a combination

of rising incomes in the developing

world and higher temperatures from

climate change meant that power

consumed for residential air condi-

tioning would rise by an amount

greater than the entire Middle East’s

electricity use today. The report said

air conditioning would need an extra

697 TWh of electricity by 2030, more

than three times the extra demand from

computer data centres. Electric vehi-

cles, meanwhile, would require an

extra 854 TWh, the IEA said.

China, which has been responsible

for two-thirds of the increase in

global electricity demand over the past

decade, is a “major part of what is

happening”, said the IEA. China al-

ready accounts for half the world’s

electric cars on the road. By 2030, it

is projected that 70 per cent of all new

car sales in the country would be

electric.

“Whether it’s investment, fossil fuel

demand, electricity consumption, de-

ployment of renewables, the market

for EVs, or clean technology manu-

facturing, we are now in a world where

almost every energy story is essen-

tially a China story. Just one example:

China’s solar expansion is now pro-

ceeding at such a rate that, by the

early 2030s – less than ten years from

now – China’s solar power generation

alone could exceed the total electric-

ity demand of the United States today,”

said Dr Birol.

With electricity use growing twice

as fast as energy demand, and most of

that electricity coming from clean

energy sources, the casual observer

would be forgiven for thinking that the

climate change battle is being won.

Unfortunately, we could not be further

from the reality.

Despite the progress, the world is far

from reaching its climate goals. Al-

though carbon dioxide emissions, re-

sponsible for driving the climate crisis,

are expected to peak within this decade

the pace of reduction in the emissions

is nowhere near fast enough. Accord-

ing to the IEA, temperatures are on

track to rise by 2.4°C by the end of the

century, well above the 1.5°C target

set by the Paris Agreement.

UN predictions are even bleaker. The

United Nations Environment Pro-

gramme (UNEP) Emissions Gap Re-

port  forecast nds that a failure

to increase ambition in the next round

of Nationally Determined Contribu-

tions (NDCs) and start delivering

immediately would put the world on

course for a temperature increase of

2.6-3.1°C over the course of this

century.

António Guterres, UN Secretary-

General, warned: “Today’s Emissions

Gap report is clear: we’re playing with

re but there can be no more playing

for time. We’re out of time. Closing

the emissions gap means closing the

ambition gap, the implementation gap,

and the nance gap. tarting at

COP29.”

The report shows that there is techni-

cal potential for emissions cuts in 2030

up to 31 Gt of CO2 equivalent – which

is around 52 per cent of emissions in

2023 – and 41 Gt in 2035. This would

bridge the gap to 1.5°C in both years.

In terms of the role the electricity

sector could play, increased deploy-

ment of solar photovoltaic technolo-

gies and wind energy could deliver 27

per cent of the total reduction potential

in 2030 and 38 per cent in 2035.

But for clean energy to continue

growing at pace, much greater invest-

ment in new energy systems, espe-

cially in electricity grids and energy

storage, are necessary.

The WEO 2024 stated: “Today, for

every dollar spent on renewable

power, only 60 cents are spent on grids

and storage, highlighting how essen-

tial supporting infrastructure is not

keeping pace with clean energy transi-

tions. Secure decarbonisation of the

electricity sector requires investment

in grids and storage to increase even

more quickly than clean generation,

and the investment ratio to rebalance

to 1:1.”

This year, several countries in Eu-

rope have seen electricity prices

dropping to negative for a record

number of hours, driven by a rapid rise

in renewables. However, there has

been slower progress in the storage

infrastructure needed.

Matthew Boulton, Director of Solar,

Storage and Private Wire of EDF

Renewables UK said: “…Investing in

renewables is key to enhancing energy

security and unlocking a secure and

affordable energy system that is resil-

ient to global change. While it is excel-

lent to see the rapid growth of renew-

ables globally, we still need to move

faster to get on track for net zero. We

must utilise technologies like battery

storage to create greater exibility and

invest in a stronger, smarter grid for a

reliable system that can support the

clean energy we need.”

As Dave Jones, Global Insights

Programme Director at Ember, put it:

“As we move further into the age of

electricity, solar and batteries are

stealing the show.”

We may be entering the Age of

Electricity but let us hope we do not

have to wait an age get the supporting

grid infrastructure technologies to

where they need to be, or for all our

efforts we could be spending more

time in the dark than we expected.

Stepping out of the

Dark Ages

Junior Isles

Cartoon by Jem Soar