THE ENERGY INDUSTRY TIMES - OCTOBER 2024
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A new report by McKinsey and Com-
pany (McKinsey) has revealed that the
global energy transition is entering a
new phase, marked by rising costs,
complexity and increased technology
challenges. Growing energy demand
and resulting emissions could affect
the pace of the energy transition, which
will require a rethink of both low-
carbon and fossil fuel strategies to
meet the goals outlined in the Paris
Agreement.
The ‘Global Energy Perspective
2024’ explores a 1.5°C pathway as well
as three bottom-up energy transition
scenarios to show the implications of
different paths to net zero – providing
a fact base to inform stakeholders as
they navigate this new phase.
According to the report, global en-
ergy demand is projected to grow by
up to 18 per cent through 2050, main-
ly driven by growth in energy con-
sumption in emerging economies (es-
pecially ASEAN countries, India and
the Middle East).
Renewables are projected to grow to
65-80 per cent of the global power
generation mix by 2050 depending on
the scenario. Fossil fuels are projected
to account for 40-60 per cent of total
energy demand to 2050, with fossil fuel
demand projected to plateau between
around 2025-2035 and begin declining
thereafter.
Notably, hydrogen demand is pro-
jected to be up to 25 per cent lower
than previously anticipated due to cost
increases of 20-40 per cent and regula-
tory uncertainty.
The analysis demonstrates that the
build out of clean energy technologies
has not been fast enough to meet grow-
ing global energy demand. To date, the
buildout of renewable energy sources
has largely benetted from the most
promising use cases or “low-hanging
fruit” where policy and funding have
been most plentiful.
Diego Hernandez Diaz, Partner at
Mcinsey reected on the nd-
ings: “To navigate this critical phase
of the energy transition while keeping
it affordable, reliable, and green, we
need urgent action and a faster pace of
change. Even with the surge in global
net zero targets, the technologies need-
ed to reach them aren’t progressing
quickly enough. Low-carbon solutions
must scale up, but they’re facing an
uphill battle as rising interest rates and
supply chain challenges limit access to
capital.”
The report notes that accelerating the
pace of the transition will require over-
coming several bottlenecks impacting
the uptake of low-carbon technologies,
including electricity generation and
sustainable fuels. This layered with
T&D investments needing to grow
nearly three-fold by 2050 to recover
from under investment and accommo-
date for intermittent RES, demon-
strates the scale of the challenge ahead,
said McKinsey.
The report also notes that emissions,
which have not yet peaked, are pro-
jected to begin their decline between
2025 and 2035.
This latest McKinsey report follows
research released by the consulting
rm in late ugust, which revealed
the energy sector has a widening “re-
ality gap” between decarbonisation
technology project commitments and
realisation – threatening the pace of
the energy transition in Europe and
the US.
The report, ‘The energy transition:
Where are we, really?’, noted that for
projects with longer lead times in spe-
cic technologies, such as offshore
wind, where more than half of Eu-
rope’s projected pipeline is still pend-
ing Final Investment Decision (FID),
the industry is quickly reaching the
stage at which FID status projects will
only come online after 2030 – impact-
ing countries’ abilities to reach 2030
Paris Agreement commitments.
rather than new technological
breakthroughs. Even so, incorpo-
rating higher levels of variable re-
newables into power systems re-
quires rethinking the ways in which
they have traditionally been planned
and operated. This will necessitate
proactive measures globally as the
rapid uptake of renewables contin-
ues, said the IEA.
According to a pair of new reports
by research provider Bloomberg-
B, for the rst time ever,
zero-carbon sources made up over
40 per cent of the electricity the
world generated in 2023. Hydro-
power accounted for 14.7 per cent,
while wind and solar contributed
almost as much at 13.9 per cent – a
new record high, whilst nuclear’s
share was 9.4 per cent.
‘Power Transition Trends 2024’,
and the ’2H 2024 Renewable En-
ergy Investment Tracker’, pub-
lished by BloombergNEF at the end
of August, indicate that momentum
towards clean power has acceler-
ated, with wind and solar represent-
ing nearly 91 per cent of net new
power capacity additions in 2023
– up from 83 per cent the year before
– while fossil fuels including coal
and gas represented just 6 per cent
of net new build.
In its ‘State of the Energy Union’
report – an annual stocktake of the
EU’s progress towards energy and
climate targets – the European
Commission revealed that half of
the bloc’s electricity came from re-
newable sources in the rst six
months of 2024, outperforming fos-
sil fuels.
It said that wind power has now
overtaken gas as the EU’s second-
largest source of electricity behind
nuclear power for the rst time.
separate report by research rm
Wood Mackenzie found that orders
for wind turbines increased 23 per
cent worldwide in the rst half of
the year. The growth was domi-
nated by China, which represented
70 GW out of a total 91.2 GW.
“Chinese OEMs (original equip-
ment manufacturers) continue to
break records for order intake,”
said Luke Lewandowski, Vice
President for global renewables re-
search at Wood Mackenzie.
“Conversely, Western OEMs are
struggling to keep pace, challenged
by China’s competitive advantages
in pricing and availability. Soft de-
mand in Western markets as well as
policy uncertainty, ination, and
other cost pressures have also driv-
en down activity in the US and Eu-
rope,” he said.
WindEurope’s Autumn Wind En-
ergy Data shows Europe built 6.4
GW of new wind farms in the rst
half of 2024. The data shows turbine
orders were up year-on-year and
auction volumes are strong but grid
bottlenecks are delaying projects.
Current trends and the pipeline of
projects and auctions now point to
the EU having 350 GW of wind
energy capacity by 2030: 296 GW
onshore and 54 GW offshore.
The EU target is 425 GW. Today
it has 225 GW.
Continued from Page 1
Greece Prime Minister Kyriakos Mit-
sotakis has called on the EU to urgent-
ly tackle a “prolonged crisis” of capac-
ity that has driven prices to such
extreme levels that it requires an urgent
“political response”.
Mitsotakis believes that at present
the energy market in southeastern Eu-
rope is fundamentally distorted in
relation to the prices that Western
Europe pays for electricity. Power
prices in Greece more than doubled
from €60/MWh in April to €130/
MWh in August.
In a letter to the European Commis-
sion, Mitsotakis called on Ursula von
der eyen to use her second veyear
term as Commission President to “take
up the task of pushing through more
cross-border capacity” to avoid such
spikes in future.
Mitsotakis asked Brussels to create a
bloc-wide regulator with powers to
inspect energy markets across the EU,
and urged the Commission to support
cross-border infrastructure projects to
transfer power between countries.
The EU will need to invest €584 bil-
lion in upgrading its power grids this
decade, by the bloc’s own estimates,
to overhaul decades-old infrastructure
and ensure grids can carry larger shares
of renewable energy.
Days before sending the letter he
asked “how it is possible that there is
a time of day when the price of the
system in the Balkans is ten times more
expensive than in Austria or the Czech
Republic”.
“We say that we have a single market
we have a target model but it does not
work… I will raise this issue with the
President of the European Commis-
sion Ms von der Leyen explaining
what exactly happened not only in
Greece but also in Bulgaria in Romania
in Hungary.”
Factors in the surge in prices in
Greece, Hungary and Romania in-
clude hot weather, outages in electric-
ity generation and low rainfall, which
had left reservoirs feeding hydroelec-
tric plants dry.
But Mitsotakis said a key driver had
also been Russia’s attacks against
Ukraine’s grid. Kyiv was previously a
net exporter of electricity but this year
has started importing signicant
amounts of power from its EU neigh-
bours. He believes that the price in-
crease occurs when renewable energy
sources RES are disconnected from
the system.
“We feel like there is a mini energy
crisis that no one is talking about,” a
Gree government ofcial said, ahead
of the letter being sent to Brussels.
The Energy Ministers of Greece, Ro-
mania and Bulgaria have now decided
to take concerted action to address the
shortcomings of the single electricity
market in southeast Europe.
Theodore Skylakakis, Greek Minis-
ter of Energy, argues that the EU’s uni-
ed maret model is not adapted to the
realities of the region. He said that
Greece, along with Romania and Bul-
garia, is working on a plan to establish
a permanent intervention mechanism.
This mechanism would be triggered
automatically in the event of extreme
prices, when supplies from Central
European networks to the southeast are
insufcient to meet demand.
The electricity sector has welcomed
the long- awaited report on the future
of European competitiveness.
Unveiled by Italian Prime Minister
and former European Central Bank
Director Mario Draghi, the competi-
tiveness report highlights the need to
“accelerate decarbonisation in a cost-
efcient way, leveraging all available
solutions through a technology-neu-
tral approach”.
Draghi said: “This approach should
include renewables, nuclear, hydro-
gen, bioenergy and carbon capture,
utilisation and storage, and should be
backed by massive mobilisation of
both public and private nance.
Eurelectric, the organisation repre-
senting Europe’s electricity sector,
mostly welcomed the report.
Citing the positives, it noted that for
the rst time, there is a clear call to
common funding for electricity grids
– at both the transmission and distribu-
tion levels – as an essential pre-requi-
site for achieving EU energy and de-
carbonisation objectives.
“It is positive to see that the need for
reinforced and expanded power infra-
structure is now front and centre, to-
gether with the development of storage
and exibility solutions, said urelec-
tric’s Secretary General Kristian Ruby.
It also noted, however, that some as-
pects of the report are not “market-
friendly” and could undermine inves-
tor condence.
According to Eurelectric, the report
proposes several untested ideas for
reducing energy costs that could use
more careful consideration. For in-
stance, the report suggests granting
temporary electricity price reliefs for
energy intensives.
While this may appear benecial at
rst, it might do more harm than good,
warned Eurelectric.
“A regulated price on clean electric-
ity would destroy any investment sig-
nals for clean power investors. In-
creased demand and investor
condence are ey elements for ensur-
ing sustained investment in infrastruc-
ture and clean electricity generation.
We must therefore nd the right bal-
ance in boosting our competitiveness
while also preserving the correct func-
tioning of the market.”
Eurelectric added: “Draghi’s posi-
tions on ETS have also raised a few
eyebrows in the power sector, espe-
cially with regards to the call for more
support for hydrogen and CCUS with-
in the ETS scheme.
“Eurelectric recognises the ETS rev-
enues allocated so far are insufcient
for covered sectors to decarbonise at
the necessary speed. However, the
spending of ETS revenues should be
adjusted to current national reality
rather than standardised for every
country.”
Responding to the publication of
Draghi’s report, COGEN Europe’s
Managing Director, Hans Korteweg,
said: “We welcome the publication of
Mr Draghi’s report on European com-
petitiveness. Fostering secure access to
affordable energy is critical for the
EU’s industrial competitiveness. To
achieve this, European leaders must do
more to prioritise and properly reward
energy efciency, including savings
achieved by the use of highly efcient
cogeneration.
“Increasing the availability of renew-
able and low-carbon sources of energy,
such as biogas/biomethane and hydro-
gen, is also critical for those industries
that rely on cogeneration to ensure a
continuous supply of heat and electric-
ity at a competitive cost.”
Headline News
Energy sector welcomes Future European Competitiveness report
Global energy transition
‘entering a new phase’
Lewandowski: Chinese
OEMs continue to break
records for order intake
The energy transition is entering a new phase, says a new McKinsey report. Low-carbon
solutions must scale up but are facing an uphill battle as rising interest rates and supply
chain challenges limit access to capital. Junior Isles
Greece calls on Brussels to tackle
energy prices crisis