THE ENERGY INDUSTRY TIMES - FEBRUARY 2023
2
Junior Isles
The energy world is at the dawn of a
new industrial age – the age of clean
energy technology manufacturing –
that is creating major new markets and
millions of jobs but also raising new
risks, prompting countries across the
globe to devise industrial strategies to
secure their place in the new global
energy economy, according to a major
new report by the International Energy
Agency (IEA).
The Paris-based agency’s ‘Energy
Technology Perspectives 2023’ shows
that although the global market for key
mass-manufactured clean energy tech-
nologies will be worth around $650
billion a year by 2030 – more than three
times today’s level – current supply
chains of clean energy technologies
present risks in the form of high geo-
graphic concentrations of resource
mining and processing as well as tech-
nology manufacturing.
For technologies like solar panels,
wind, EV batteries, electrolysers and
heat pumps, the three largest producer
countries account for at least 70 per
cent of manufacturing capacity for
each technology – with China domi-
nant in all of them.
Commenting on whether Europe
and the US should be concerned about
the dominance of China, IEA Execu-
tive Director Fatih Birol, said: “Yes it
is true that today China has a dominant
role in both the manufacturing of clean
energy technologies and processing
critical minerals. But you can look at
this in two ways. On the one hand it
has a huge role and concentration but
on the other you can see that as a result
of China’s learning by doing, it was
able to bring the cost of these clean
energy technologies down to make
them more affordable.
“Now I see that countries like the US,
Europe, India and Japan are also com-
ing with their clean energy manufactur-
ing strategies. This will help with di-
versication, which is always good to
reduce risks. But we should not forget
that the efforts the Chinese are making
is having a positive global impact.”
The report notes that major econo-
mies are acting to combine their cli-
mate, energy security and industrial
policies into broader strategies for their
economies.
The Ination Reduction Act in the
United States is a clear example of
this, but there is also the Fit for 55
package and REPowerEU plan in the
European Union, Japan’s Green
Transformation programme, and the
Production Linked Incentive scheme
in India that encourages manufactur-
ing of solar PV and batteries – and
China is working to meet and even
exceed the goals of its latest Five-Year
Plan.
Meanwhile, clean energy project
developers and investors are watching
closely for the policies that can give
them a competitive edge. Relatively
short lead times of around 1-3 years
on average to bring manufacturing
facilities online mean that the project
pipeline can expand rapidly in an en-
vironment that is conducive to invest-
ment. Only 25 per cent of the an-
nounced manufacturing projects
globally for solar PV are under con-
struction or beginning construction
imminently, according to the report.
The number is around 35 per cent for
EV batteries and less than 10 per cent
for electrolysers. Government poli-
cies and market developments can
have a signicant effect on where the
rest of these projects end up.
Amid the regional ambitions for
scaling up manufacturing, ETP-2023
underscores the important role of in-
ternational trade in clean energy tech-
nology supply chains. It shows that
nearly 60 per cent of solar PV modules
produced worldwide are traded across
borders. Trade is also important for
EV batteries and wind turbine com-
ponents, despite their bulkiness, with
China being the main net exporter
today.
basis for reforming an European
electricity market that was designed
in 1998.
It is proposing a dual market with
a short-term market (daily and in-
traday) “that is very liquid and
transparent” like the current mar-
ginal market, that would be com-
bined with another long-term mar-
ket adapted to the particularities of
each national market. It would
separate the most expensive energy
source in Europe’s power mix –
natural gas – from clean electricity
producers, such as renewables,
hydro and nuclear energy, and pro-
mote forward contracts.
Another option in the proposed
reform includes segregating power
generators by technology. Renew-
ables, nuclear and hydro would be
on one side, paid based on forward
contracts for producing electricity.
Combined cycle gas plants, energy
storage and demand-side manage-
ment would form the capacity mar-
ket and be paid for rm capacity and
availability, according to the Span-
ish proposal.
In this scenario, contracts for dif-
ference (CFDs) for renewables
would incorporate a xed price for
the lifetime of the power plant,
while prices for nuclear and hydro-
power would be regulated under
their CFDs.
The upside of this design is that
power generators would not be able
to earn windfall prots, while the
capacity market would facilitate
investments in energy storage, the
government said.
Spain believes the new regulation
will give states room to adapt their
energy mix and that, in the case of
Spain, it may allow the remunera-
tion of hydro and nuclear energy to
be removed from the daily mar-
ginal market in order to reduce the
weight of the daily price inuenced
by volatility and give more room
for long-term contracts.
France, meanwhile, is committed
to maintaining the existing mar-
ginal pricing system and rules out
any type of market price interven-
tion, as proposed by the Spanish
government for nuclear and hydro-
electric energy.
Instead the French government
advocates the creation of a fund to
serve as a counterpart mechanism.
This vehicle could be managed by
the system operators to guarantee
neutrality in its application.
Eurelectric, the organisation rep-
resenting Europe’s electricity com-
panies has already tabled a pro-
posal that will focus on the
implementation of a capacity mech-
anism. This would allow the devel-
opment of back-up technologies,
with CFDs and long-term PPAs to
guarantee the protability of infra-
marginal technologies (renewables
and nuclear).
Meanwhile, the EU faces continu-
ing difculties in 2023. The Inter-
national Energy Agency has warned
that the reduction in pipeline gas
from Russia risks leaving the bloc
with a shortfall of 30 billion m
3
.
Continued from Page 1
Offshore wind installations are up,
inspite of challenges such as a lack of
trained personnel and supply chain
issues.
According to WindEurope, the EU
installed 15 GW of new wind farms in
2022 – one third more than 2021. The
organisation noted that this increase in
new installations “is an encouraging
result” given the overlapping chal-
lenges the industry faced in 2022.
Although it hailed the progress, the
organisation noted that the 15 GW still
falls signicantly short of what Eu-
rope needs to build to deliver on its
climate and energy security targets.
The shortfall is largely due to permit-
ting bottlenecks, it said, noting that 80
GW of wind energy projects across
Europe are currently stuck in permit-
ting procedures.
WindEurope CEO Giles Dickson
said: “15 GW of new wind in 2022 is
not too bad given the challenges faced
last year by Europe’s wind industry.
It’s not enough for the EU’s energy
targets, but governments know the
latter can only be achieved if they
simplify the permitting rules and pro-
cedures – and there are now signs of
progress on this. Less encouraging is
the slowdown in investments in new
wind farms. Confusion about electric-
ity market rules is turning investors
away. The EU must make Europe an
attractive place for renewables invest-
ments again.”
A combination of ination and un-
helpful government interventions in
electricity markets is undermining in-
vestments in new wind farms, said
WindEurope. In the rst 11 months of
2022 the total new investments in wind
farms in the EU covered only 12 GW
of new capacity. This is signicantly
less than the rate of new investments
needed to deliver the EU’s 2030 cli-
mate and energy targets.
The organisation also said the forth-
coming reform of electricity markets
must give investors greater clarity
about what rules apply. “The freedom
given to Member States in last year’s
emergency measures to set their own
national rules is turning investors
away. They’re investing instead in the
US, Australia and elsewhere. The EU
is not attractive for major renewables
investors right now,” it said.
Meanwhile, the International Energy
Agency said in a report that the lack of
trained personnel in the offshore wind
energy sector could delay installation
in the coming years.
“Installing a wind turbine requires
fewer workers per unit of capacity than
solar PV, but more material inputs,
notably cement and cabling, as well as
specialised machinery to transport and
position the turbine. In the case of off-
shore wind farms, specialised vessels
are required, which increasingly need
to be capable of handling taller and
larger wind turbines,” the agency said.
At the same time, offshore wind en-
ergy projects require more trained
workers and more labour per megawatt
than land-based projects throughout
their life cycle.
“For instance, installing an offshore
wind farm takes six or more years. For
large-scale solar PV farms, installers
can spend 8-14 months on a project,
while distributed rooftop PV systems
can typically be installed in just a few
days,” said the report.
n The UK government has signed an
agreement with a group of European
partners to develop offshore renewable
projects in the North Sea. The projects
will link electricity interconnectors
and wind farms. Players include Bel-
gium, Denmark, France, Germany,
Ireland, Luxembourg, Netherlands,
Sweden, Norway and the European
Commission.
The UK needs a ve-fold increase in
solar power, an earlier ban on new gas
boilers by 2033 and curbs on the export
of plastic waste by 2027, according to
a recent report.
In the 340-page ‘Net Zero Review’,
Chris Skidmore, the Tory MP and for-
mer science and universities minister,
commissioned to conduct the review,
said the transition to a low-carbon
economy is “the industrial revolution
of our time” with opportunities for
companies. He stressed, however, that
opportunities are being missed today
because of weaknesses in the UK’s
investment environment.
Grant Shapps, Business and Energy
Secretary, commented: “The UK is
well placed to ensure that tackling cli-
mate change also brings new jobs and
investment for businesses and com-
munities. I am grateful to Chris Skid-
more for his detailed report, which
offers a range of ideas and innovations
for us to consider as we work to grasp
the opportunities from green growth.”
Energy UK welcomed the indepen-
dent review. Deputy Director of Policy,
Charles Wood said: “We welcome the
ndings of the Net Zero Review which
underline in comprehensive fashion,
the economic benets, in addition to
the environmental ones, that meeting
net zero will bring – as well as making
it clear quite how far we have to go.”
He called the review a “wide-ranging
assessment”, noting there are 129 spe-
cic recommendations and actions that
the government should adopt in full.
The report recommends reforms to
local and national planning systems to
“unleash” cheaper forms of electricity
generation – onshore wind and solar
– albeit with the caveat “where [such
technologies are] locally supported”.
The review called for the government
to set an ofcial target for solar power
for the rst time – proposing that the
UK develops 70 GW of solar genera-
tion by 2035 compared to the current
gure of 14 GW.
It also urged the Treasury to give
greater “longer-term certainty” to nu-
clear power stations, hydrogen tech-
nology and carbon capture and storage
projects.
Headline News
Wind installations advance despite challenges
Wind installations advance despite challenges
UK is missing net zero opportunities
UK is missing net zero opportunities
World “at the dawn” of new
World “at the dawn” of new
industrial age, says IEA
The Spanish government
has submitted a proposal to
the European Commission
n Clean-tech manufacturing market worth $650 billion per year
n Geographic concentration presents supply chain risks