THE ENERGY INDUSTRY TIMES - AUGUST 2021
2
Junior Isles
Fossil fuel subsidies and continued
exploration by oil and gas majors are
at levels that put the Paris climate goal
beyond reach.
In July a report by BloombergNEF
(BNEF) and Bloomberg Philanthro-
pies revealed that governments of all
19 individual country members of the
G20 have given more than $3.3 trillion
in subsidies for coal, oil, gas, and fos-
sil fuel production and consumption
from 2015-2019. At today’s prices,
that sum could fund 4232 GW in new
solar power plants – over 3.5 times the
size of the current US electricity grid,
said the report.
Phasing out support for fossil fuels,
particularly coal, and shifting funding
to renewables is a crucial step to ac-
celerating the clean energy transition
and is core to the upcoming Glasgow
COP26 climate conference goals.
The ‘Climate Policy Factbook’ high-
lights three concrete areas in which
immediate government action is need-
ed to limit global warming to 1.5 °C:
rst, phasing out support for fossil
fuels; second, putting a price on emis-
sions; and third, encouraging climate
risk disclosure. In each of these areas,
the report found that the policies of
many G20 countries were signicantly
off course.
G20 nations collectively cut fossil
fuel funding by 10 per cent from 2015
to 2019, with eight member nations
making notable progress in reducing
their fossil fuel subsidies by 10 per cent
or more (Argentina, Germany, Italy,
Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Ko-
rea, Turkey, and the UK).
However, to remain in line with the
Paris Agreement goals in the lead-up
to COP26, the G20 cannot rely on the
actions of a few nations, said the report.
“Every G20 country must take imme-
diate action to end support of fossil fuel
projects and accelerate their coal
phase-outs,” it said.
During the same timeframe (2015-
19), eight members increased their
support – notably Australia, Canada,
and the US – encouraging the use and
production of fossil fuels, distorting
prices, and risking carbon ‘lock-in’ –
where assets funded today continue to
emit high levels of emissions for de-
cades ahead.
According to BNEF, to effectively
lead the phase-out of coal and other
fossil fuels ahead of COP26, G20
countries must also implement emis-
sion pricing mechanisms to hold pol-
luters accountable for the true social
cost of their actions.
In a separate study, the oil and gas
sectors came under scrutiny. A com-
prehensive benchmarking analysis of
the oil and gas industry’s performance
against the Paris climate goals today
shows that, without immediate and
decisive action, the sector would pre-
vent the world from meeting the
IPCC’s 1.5°C global warming sce-
nario by 2050.
The benchmark created by the
World Benchmarking Alliance
(WBA), alongside partners CDP and
ADEME, scores private, state-owned
and publicly listed companies using
CDP’s and ADEME’s Assessing low
Carbon Transmission (ACT) meth-
odology. This is the rst time the in-
dustry has been judged against a
1.5°C scenario – the most ambitious
emissions reduction plan proposed by
the Paris Agreement – and the rst
study to assess oil and gas companies
using the International Energy Agen-
cy’s (IEA) ‘Net Zero Emissions by
2050’ scenario.
Assessing 100 of the world’s biggest
oil and gas rms against this scenario,
it shows that based on current rates of
production these companies are set to
consume the sector’s allocated carbon
budget (from 2019 to 2050) by 2037
– 13 years too early. Despite this trajec-
tory, researchers found that none of the
100 companies have committed to
stopping exploration.
Other key ndings include: from
2014-2019 the majors and National
Oil Companies (NOCs) all increased
either their oil or gas production; only
13 companies have low carbon tran-
sition plans that extend at least 20
years into the future.
“Opaque, unambitious or non-exis-
tent targets and strategies from the
greatest contributors to climate change
show that the oil and gas sector is not
accepting its share of responsibility for
global emissions,” said the report.
they should begin to incentivise in-
dustrial decarbonisation through
the use of technologies like high
temperature heat pumps or carbon
capture.
“Reforming the carbon market
will be critical, especially for the
hard-to-decarbonise industrial sec-
tors, such as cement and steel,” said
the Wood Mackenzie statement.
“Though the EU ETS covers sectors
that generate half of the bloc’s emis-
sions – power, industry and aviation
– these sectors will only deliver a
third of the cuts needed by 2030.”
With the ETS, the EU has tried to
push companies to gradually reduce
their emissions to minimise their
cost of emissions allowances,
which have risen from €8/t of emis-
sions at the start of 2018 to over
€50/t in early May.
In the absence of any changes to
the proposed package, ICIS (Inde-
pendent Commodity Intelligence
Services) expects EU ETS prices to
reach around €90/tCO
2
by 2030,
with a price increase expected in
particular in the second half of the
decade when the proposed reforms
to free allocation would take effect.
The EU is also acting to ensure its
efforts to increase carbon prices do
not put its economy at a disadvan-
tage. The CBAM aims to prevent
carbon leakage and ultimately en-
courage the rest of the world to re-
duce emissions. The mechanism
will create a level playing eld on
emissions costs for companies ex-
porting goods to the EU and EU
producers already subject to the
ETS.
The CBAM proposed in Fit for 55
will cover the steel, aluminium, ce-
ment, electricity, and fertilisers sec-
tors. ICIS estimates that around 200
million t of embedded emissions
would initially be covered by the
measure.
Commenting on the proposal, Se-
bastian Rilling, Analyst EU Power
& Carbon Markets, ICIS, said: “It
remains to be seen, however, to what
extent domestic carbon pricing
schemes in the countries of origin
as well as a potential resource shuf-
ing will limit the impact for im-
porters on the ground especially in
the rst years of operation.”
James Whiteside, Global Head of
multi-commodity research at
Wood Mackenzie, warned that
implementation “could prove to be
a logistical nightmare”. He said:
“There is little transparency around
carbon emissions associated with
products. Determining the country
of origin of products can also be
problematic. Robust certication
schemes must be adopted – and
adhered to – to effectively admin-
ister border taxes.”
Continued from Page 1
bp’s ‘Statistical Review of World En-
ergy 2021’ has captured the “dramatic
impact” the global pandemic had on
energy markets and how the “year of
Covid” may shape future global energy
trends.
The data collected in this year’s edi-
tion includes energy data for 2020 – one
of the most turbulent years the world
has ever seen. The report showed pri-
mary energy consumption fell by 4.5
per cent in 2020 – the largest annual
decline since 1945 – largely driven by
a 75 per cent decline in oil consump-
tion. Even electricity generation fell by
0.9 per cent – more than the decline in
2009 (-0.5 per cent), the only previous
year in bp’s data series (which starts in
1985) that had seen a decline in elec-
tricity demand.
Wind, solar and hydroelectricity
generation, however, all grew despite
the fall in overall energy demand.
Wind and solar capacity increased by
238 GW in 2020 – 50 per cent larger
than at any time in history.
US, India and Russia saw the largest
declines in energy consumption. China
saw the largest increase (2.1 per cent),
one of only a handful of countries
where energy demand grew last year.
Spencer Dale, bp’s Chief Economist,
said: “For the Review – as for so many
of us – 2020 will go down as one of
the most surprising and challenging
years in its life. The global lockdowns
had a dramatic impact on energy mar-
kets, particularly on oil, whose trans-
port-related demand was crushed.
“Encouragingly, 2020 was also the
year the share of renewables in global
power generation recorded its fastest
ever increase – a growth that came
largely at the expense of coal red gen-
eration. These trends are exactly what
the world needs to see as it transitions
to net zero – strong growth in renew-
ables crowding out coal.”
Additional highlights from the pub-
lication showed the share of gas in
primary energy continued to rise,
reaching a record high of 24.7 per cent,
as gas prices fell to multi-year lows.
Coal consumption fell by 6.2 EJ, or
4.2 per cent, led by declines in the US
(-2.1 EJ) and India (-1.1 EJ). OECD
coal consumption fell to its lowest
level in bp’s data series back to 1965.
China and Malaysia were notable ex-
ceptions, with consumption by 0.5 EJ
and 0.2 EJ, respectively.
Renewable energy (including biofu-
els but excluding hydro) rose by 9.7
per cent, slower than the 10-year aver-
age (13.4 per cent p.a.) but the absolute
increment in energy terms (2.9 EJ) was
similar to increases seen in 2017, 2018
and 2019.
Solar electricity rose by a record 1.3
EJ (20 per cent) but wind (1.5 EJ)
provided the largest contribution to
renewables growth. Solar capacity
expanded by 127 GW, while installed
wind capacity grew 111 GW – almost
double its previous highest annual
increase.
China was the largest contributor to
renewables growth (1.0 EJ), followed
by the US (0.4 EJ). Europe, as a region,
contributed 0.7 EJ to the rise.
The British government together with
energy regulator Ofgem, has published
its Smart Systems and Flexibility Plan
and Energy Digitalisation Strategy in
an effort to deliver on the commitments
made by the government in the Energy
White Paper. The plan updates the pre-
vious plan launched in 2017 and rep-
resents a signicant step forward on
the path to providing exibility for the
country’s energy network.
According to the government, full
deployment of smart systems and ex-
ibility in the energy sector could create
up to 24 000 UK jobs and boost exports
while enabling the UK to create a net
zero energy system by 2050.
Jonathan Brearley, Chief Executive
of Ofgem, commented: “This plan is
essential to hitting the UK’s net zero
climate goal while keeping energy bills
affordable for everyone. It requires a
revolution in how and when we use
electricity and will allow millions of
electric cars, smart appliances and
other new green technologies to digi-
tally connect to the energy system.”
The government also published a call
for evidence on the deployment of
technologies that allow electric vehi-
cles to export electricity from their
batteries back on to the grid or to homes
during times of higher demand. A
separate call for evidence will look at
enabling large-scale and long-duration
electricity storage so that availability
can be maintained during periods when
renewables generate less energy.
Two government consultations were
also launched on proposed reforms to
the energy system that will ensure
frameworks are in place to drive the
UK’s decarbonisation plans, while
minimising costs to consumers and
industry and maintaining resilience in
the system.
The Future System Operator consul-
tation is on proposals to create a new
energy system operator separate from
National Grid plc, with roles in both
the electricity and gas systems. Ac-
cording to the government, the chal-
lenges of meeting commitments to
tackle climate change are creating the
need for new technical roles and re-
sponsibilities in electricity and gas
systems
The other consultation assesses pro-
posals to reform the codes that govern
gas and electricity markets. This con-
sultation will ensure that governance
of the energy system is t for purpose
in a low-carbon future and builds on a
previous consultation from 2019.
Headline News
bp Statistical Review highlights “dramatic
bp Statistical Review highlights “dramatic
impact” of pandemic on energy markets
impact” of pandemic on energy markets
UK gets smart on delivering a exible energy network
UK gets smart on delivering a exible energy network
Continued fossil fuel support
Continued fossil fuel support
will put Paris goal beyond reach
will put Paris goal beyond reach
Whiteside: implementation
of the CBAM could be a
“logistical nightmare”
n G20 gives more than $3.3 trillion to fossil sector over four-year period
n Oil and gas companies to consume sector’s carbon budget by 2037